# Burnley v Bristol City — the Match Wizard Championship, game week 5 — Saturday, 5 September 2026, kick-off 15:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Burnley: 42 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season in the Premier League. Bristol City: 50 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season. Look and learn: it is early in the season, so nearly everything counted here was earned last season -- by squads and dugouts a summer window may have reshaped. Treat the first five weeks as pointers while the new shapes settle, not proof. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Burnley is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Burnley -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 23rd of 24 after 4 games, with 2 points -- too few games yet to mean much. It was not in this division last season -- it came down from the Premier League, where it finished 19th of 20. - **Its block:** New to the division this season, so it takes no block from last season's final table. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (9th to 16th). Against that block it has won 1, drew 2, lost 12 of 15 -- 5 points of 45. At home against them: won 1 of 7. Away against them: won 0 of 8. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 0, drew 6, lost 7 of 13 (0.46 a game); against the middle block won 1, drew 2, lost 12 of 15 (0.33 a game); against the bottom block won 3, drew 3, lost 7 of 13 (0.92 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 1, lost 0 of 1 (1.00 a game). ### Bristol City -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 7th of 24 after 4 games, with 7 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 12th of 24 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (9th to 16th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 4 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side new to its division, and none of the matches we hold were against that block -- nothing to read. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 4, drew 5, lost 8 of 17 (1.00 a game); against the middle block won 6, drew 4, lost 6 of 16 (1.38 a game); against the bottom block won 9, drew 3, lost 5 of 17 (1.76 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **-0.69 points a game is the venue form gap, in Bristol City's favour: Burnley takes 0.71 a game at home over the last two seasons, Bristol City 1.40 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Burnley -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 0, drew 2, lost 0 of 2, scoring 3 and conceding 3. Last season at home in the Premier League: won 2, drew 7, lost 10 of 19, scoring 18 and conceding 29 -- 0.68 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: drew with Middlesbrough 1-1 at home; lost to Norwich City 1-4 away; lost to West Bromwich Albion 1-3 away; drew with West Ham United 2-2 at home; drew with Wolverhampton Wanderers 1-1 at home in the Premier League. The last of these is from last season. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 38 matches with one recorded (34, 4 apiece), most recently Nicky Hayen with 4. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Bristol City -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 1, drew 1, lost 0 of 2, scoring 5 and conceding 3. Last season away: won 8, drew 7, lost 8 of 23, scoring 26 and conceding 28 -- 1.35 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Preston North End 3-1 away; beat Portsmouth 2-1 at home; drew with Birmingham City 2-2 away; lost to Millwall 0-2 at home; beat Stoke City 2-0 at home. The last of these is from last season. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 3 different managers took its 34 matches with one recorded (23, 7, 4 apiece), most recently Michael Skubala with 4. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Burnley scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Bristol City scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 16-30. The shapes mesh: Bristol City's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Burnley is softest.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Burnley scores most in the 76-90+ band (12 of 43); Burnley concedes most in the 31-45+ band (18 of 85); Bristol City scores most in the 31-45+ band (14 of 66); Bristol City concedes most in the 16-30 band (15 of 65). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Burnley -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.0 and concedes 2.0 a game over its last 42 league matches; at home, 1.0 for and 1.5 against over 21. - **When it scores:** Of 43 scored across its own 42 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 12. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 12 of 43 (28%). - **When it concedes:** Of 85 conceded across its own 42 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 17; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 18; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 17. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 9 of its 42 read -- then won 3, drew 2, lost 4; conceded first in 31 -- pulled back 1 win and 8 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 13 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 3 of its 42 read, winning 3 of them; trailed by two in 23, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 7. ### Bristol City -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.2 for and 1.2 against over 25. - **When it scores:** Of 66 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 66 (21%). - **When it concedes:** Of 65 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 15; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 13. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 21 of its 50 read -- then won 15, drew 4, lost 2; conceded first in 25 -- pulled back 4 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 16 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 13 of its 50 read, winning 13 of them; trailed by two in 12, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 6. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 50% of their games, both teams scoring in 55%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 44%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Burnley's numbers over its games, Bristol City's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Burnley's own 21 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (48%). In Bristol City's own 25 away matches read, 10 (40%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 44% of games. ### Burnley -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 22 of its own 42 (52%); over 1.5 in 36 (86%); over 3.5 in 18 (43%). At home: over 2.5 in 7 of its 21 (33%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 26 of its own 42 (62%). At home: 10 of its 21 (48%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 4 of its own 42 (10%); failed to score in 14 (33%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Burnley's own 42 matches read: Burnley or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 26 (62%). Burnley itself held the lead in 3, winning 3. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 10 of 21. ### Bristol City -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 24 of its own 50 (48%); over 1.5 in 37 (74%); over 3.5 in 14 (28%). Away: over 2.5 in 12 of its 25 (48%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 24 of its own 50 (48%). Away: 14 of its 25 (56%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 14 of its own 50 (28%); failed to score in 16 (32%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Bristol City's own 50 matches read: Bristol City or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 25 (50%). Bristol City itself held the lead in 13, winning 13. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 10 of 25. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Burnley is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. -0.69 points a game is the venue form gap, in Bristol City's favour: Burnley takes 0.71 a game at home over the last two seasons, Bristol City 1.40 away. Burnley scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Bristol City scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 16-30. The shapes mesh: Bristol City's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Burnley is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 50% of their games, both teams scoring in 55%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 44%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Bristol City lands the first blow more often (21 of 50 to 9 of 42); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Bristol City's -- two goals clear in 13 of 50, against 3 of 42; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Burnley's hands -- ahead without winning in 7 of 42; Burnley finds its goals latest of all -- 12 of its 43 after the 75th. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Burnley 0.99 goals expected, Bristol City 1.49, from two seasons of scoring rates (21 home matches and 25 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: Burnley's figures include last season in the Premier League, where goals came against different company. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Burnley 3.98 (25%), the draw 3.83 (26%), Bristol City 2.05 (49%). The market's averages: 1.96, 3.60 and 3.75. The widest gap is on Bristol City: the market offers 3.75 against our 2.05. If our figures are right that is value; nothing proves they are. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 2.21 (45%), under 2.5 1.82 (55%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.80, under 2.5 1.98. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 2.05 (49%), no 1.95 (51%). The market's averages: yes 1.70, no 2.05. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Burnley's own 21 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (48%). In Bristol City's own 25 away matches read, 10 (40%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 44% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/championship/2026-09-05/burnley-v-bristol-city/halftime/ Built 2026-09-05T05:39:38+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.