# Portsmouth v Cardiff City — the Match Wizard Championship, game week 5 — Saturday, 5 September 2026, kick-off 15:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Portsmouth: 50 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season. Cardiff City: 50 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season in the League One. Look and learn: it is early in the season, so nearly everything counted here was earned last season -- by squads and dugouts a summer window may have reshaped. Treat the first five weeks as pointers while the new shapes settle, not proof. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Cardiff City is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Portsmouth -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 21st of 24 after 4 games, with 3 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 18th of 24 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the bottom block (17th to 24th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 4 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side new to its division. Against that block it has won 1, drew 0, lost 0 of 1. Away against them: won 1 of 1. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 5, drew 4, lost 8 of 17 (1.12 a game); against the middle block won 1, drew 5, lost 12 of 18 (0.44 a game); against the bottom block won 8, drew 4, lost 2 of 14 (2.00 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 0 of 1 (3.00 a game). ### Cardiff City -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 19th of 24 after 4 games, with 3 points -- too few games yet to mean much. It was not in this division last season -- it came up from the League One, where it finished 2nd of 24. - **Its block:** New to the division this season, so it takes no block from last season's final table. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the bottom block (17th to 24th). Against that block it has won 11, drew 4, lost 1 of 16 -- 37 points of 48. At home against them: won 7 of 8. Away against them: won 4 of 8. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 7, drew 4, lost 5 of 16 (1.56 a game); against the middle block won 9, drew 5, lost 4 of 18 (1.78 a game); against the bottom block won 11, drew 4, lost 1 of 16 (2.31 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **-0.36 points a game is the venue form gap, in Cardiff City's favour: Portsmouth takes 1.20 a game at home over the last two seasons, Cardiff City 1.56 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Portsmouth -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 0, drew 0, lost 2 of 2, scoring 1 and conceding 5. Last season at home: won 8, drew 6, lost 9 of 23, scoring 25 and conceding 23 -- 1.30 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Derby County 0-2 at home; lost to Bristol City 1-2 away; beat Lincoln City 3-1 away; lost to Queens Park Rangers 1-3 at home; drew with Birmingham City 1-1 at home. The last of these is from last season. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 33 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by John Mousinho. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Cardiff City -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 0, drew 1, lost 1 of 2, scoring 3 and conceding 4. Last season away in the League One: won 10, drew 8, lost 5 of 23, scoring 40 and conceding 27 -- 1.65 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Queens Park Rangers 1-2 away; drew with Sheffield United 2-2 at home; drew with Derby County 2-2 away; drew with Wrexham 1-1 at home; lost to Mansfield Town 4-5 away in the League One. The last of these is from last season. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 21 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Brian Barry-Murphy. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Portsmouth scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Cardiff City scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 16-30.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Portsmouth scores most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 54); Portsmouth concedes most in the 46-60 band (15 of 72); Cardiff City scores most in the 76-90+ band (23 of 96); Cardiff City concedes most in the 16-30 band (11 of 57). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Portsmouth -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.1 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.0 for and 1.1 against over 25. - **When it scores:** Of 54 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 54 (26%). - **When it concedes:** Of 72 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 13; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 13. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 23 of its 50 read -- then won 14, drew 7, lost 2; conceded first in 25 -- pulled back 1 win and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 9 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 7 of its 50 read, winning 7 of them; trailed by two in 14, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 9. ### Cardiff City -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.9 and concedes 1.1 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.7 for and 1.2 against over 25. - **When it scores:** Of 96 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 19; 46-60: 21; 61-75: 15; 76-90+: 23. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 23 of 96 (24%). - **When it concedes:** Of 57 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 9. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 28 of its 50 read -- then won 23, drew 5, lost 0; conceded first in 20 -- pulled back 4 wins and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 22 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 16 of its 50 read, winning 16 of them; trailed by two in 7, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 6. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 51% of their games, both teams scoring in 57%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 40%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Portsmouth's numbers over its games, Cardiff City's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Portsmouth's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 9 (36%). In Cardiff City's own 25 away matches read, 11 (44%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 40% of games. ### Portsmouth -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 23 of its own 50 (46%); over 1.5 in 35 (70%); over 3.5 in 13 (26%). At home: over 2.5 in 10 of its 25 (40%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 28 of its own 50 (56%). At home: 12 of its 25 (48%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 10 of its own 50 (20%); failed to score in 14 (28%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Portsmouth's own 50 matches read: Portsmouth or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 21 (42%). Portsmouth itself held the lead in 7, winning 7. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 9 of 25. ### Cardiff City -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 28 of its own 50 (56%); over 1.5 in 40 (80%); over 3.5 in 19 (38%). Away: over 2.5 in 13 of its 25 (52%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 29 of its own 50 (58%). Away: 16 of its 25 (64%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 17 of its own 50 (34%); failed to score in 6 (12%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Cardiff City's own 50 matches read: Cardiff City or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 23 (46%). Cardiff City itself held the lead in 16, winning 16. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 11 of 25. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Cardiff City is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. -0.36 points a game is the venue form gap, in Cardiff City's favour: Portsmouth takes 1.20 a game at home over the last two seasons, Cardiff City 1.56 away. Portsmouth scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Cardiff City scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 16-30. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 51% of their games, both teams scoring in 57%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 40%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Cardiff City lands the first blow more often (28 of 50 to 23 of 50); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Cardiff City's -- two goals clear in 16 of 50, against 7 of 50; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Portsmouth's hands -- ahead without winning in 9 of 50; Portsmouth finds its goals latest of all -- 14 of its 54 after the 75th; Cardiff City finds its goals latest of all -- 23 of its 96 after the 75th. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Portsmouth 1.01 goals expected, Cardiff City 1.53, from two seasons of scoring rates (25 home matches and 25 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: Cardiff City's figures include last season in the League One, where goals came against different company. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Portsmouth 4.01 (25%), the draw 3.90 (26%), Cardiff City 2.02 (49%). The market's averages: 2.35, 3.50 and 2.51. The widest gap is on Portsmouth: the market is shorter (2.35) than our 4.01 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 2.14 (47%), under 2.5 1.88 (53%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.73, under 2.5 2.10. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 2.01 (50%), no 1.99 (50%). The market's averages: yes 1.53, no 2.34. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Portsmouth's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 9 (36%). In Cardiff City's own 25 away matches read, 11 (44%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 40% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/championship/2026-09-05/portsmouth-v-cardiff-city/halftime/ Built 2026-09-05T05:39:40+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.