# Queens Park Rangers v Middlesbrough — the Match Wizard Championship, game week 5 — Saturday, 5 September 2026, kick-off 15:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Queens Park Rangers: 50 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season. Middlesbrough: 50 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season. Look and learn: it is early in the season, so nearly everything counted here was earned last season -- by squads and dugouts a summer window may have reshaped. Treat the first five weeks as pointers while the new shapes settle, not proof. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **The table makes Middlesbrough the bigger side: 5th against 15th of 24 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Queens Park Rangers takes 0.75 points a game, Middlesbrough 2.14 -- the block form is Middlesbrough's.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Queens Park Rangers -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 2nd of 24 after 4 games, with 10 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 15th of 24 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (9th to 16th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 4 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the top block (1st to 8th). Against that block it has won 4, drew 0, lost 12 of 16 -- 12 points of 48. At home against them: won 2 of 8. Away against them: won 2 of 8. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 4, drew 0, lost 12 of 16 (0.75 a game); against the middle block won 4, drew 4, lost 6 of 14 (1.14 a game); against the bottom block won 10, drew 6, lost 2 of 18 (2.00 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 1, lost 0 of 2 (2.00 a game). ### Middlesbrough -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 6th of 24 after 4 games, with 7 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 5th of 24 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the top block (1st to 8th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 4 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (9th to 16th). Against that block it has won 9, drew 3, lost 2 of 14 -- 30 points of 42. At home against them: won 6 of 7. Away against them: won 3 of 7. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 4, drew 5, lost 7 of 16 (1.06 a game); against the middle block won 9, drew 3, lost 2 of 14 (2.14 a game); against the bottom block won 7, drew 7, lost 4 of 18 (1.56 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 1, lost 0 of 2 (2.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+0.16 points a game is the venue form gap, in Queens Park Rangers's favour: Queens Park Rangers takes 1.48 a game at home over the last two seasons, Middlesbrough 1.32 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Queens Park Rangers -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 1, drew 1, lost 0 of 2, scoring 2 and conceding 1. Last season at home: won 10, drew 3, lost 10 of 23, scoring 40 and conceding 37 -- 1.43 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Cardiff City 2-1 at home; beat Blackburn Rovers 2-1 away; drew with Bolton Wanderers 0-0 at home; beat Portsmouth 3-1 away; lost to Ipswich Town 0-3 away. The last of these is from last season. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 36 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Julien Stéphan. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Middlesbrough -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 0, drew 1, lost 1 of 2, scoring 2 and conceding 3. Last season away: won 8, drew 8, lost 7 of 23, scoring 34 and conceding 31 -- 1.39 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: drew with Burnley 1-1 away; beat West Bromwich Albion 3-1 at home; lost to Blackburn Rovers 1-2 away; beat Lincoln City 2-1 at home; lost to Hull City 0-1 away. The last of these is from last season. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 32 matches with one recorded (21, 11 apiece), most recently Kim Hellberg with 21. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Queens Park Rangers scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Middlesbrough scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Queens Park Rangers's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Middlesbrough is softest.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Queens Park Rangers scores most in the 76-90+ band (18 of 68); Queens Park Rangers concedes most in the 46-60 band (17 of 76); Middlesbrough scores most in the 31-45+ band (15 of 74); Middlesbrough concedes most in the 76-90+ band (13 of 54). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Queens Park Rangers -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.7 for and 1.5 against over 25. - **When it scores:** Of 68 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 16; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 18. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 18 of 68 (26%). - **When it concedes:** Of 76 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 13; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 15; 46-60: 17; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 12. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 16 of its 50 read -- then won 13, drew 1, lost 2; conceded first in 27 -- pulled back 6 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 21 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 11 of its 50 read, winning 11 of them; trailed by two in 15, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 3. ### Middlesbrough -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.5 and concedes 1.1 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.4 for and 1.4 against over 25. - **When it scores:** Of 74 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 15; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 15; 76-90+: 11. - **When it concedes:** Of 54 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 5; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 13. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 13 of 54 (24%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 26 of its 50 read -- then won 18, drew 5, lost 3; conceded first in 19 -- pulled back 3 wins and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 17 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 13 of its 50 read, winning 13 of them; trailed by two in 4, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 8. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 59% of their games, both teams scoring in 62%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 48%. On the record this leans a goals match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Queens Park Rangers's numbers over its games, Middlesbrough's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Queens Park Rangers's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 15 (60%). In Middlesbrough's own 25 away matches read, 9 (36%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 48% of games. ### Queens Park Rangers -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 32 of its own 50 (64%); over 1.5 in 38 (76%); over 3.5 in 18 (36%). At home: over 2.5 in 19 of its 25 (76%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 32 of its own 50 (64%). At home: 18 of its 25 (72%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 11 of its own 50 (22%); failed to score in 14 (28%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Queens Park Rangers's own 50 matches read: Queens Park Rangers or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 26 (52%). Queens Park Rangers itself held the lead in 11, winning 11. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 15 of 25. ### Middlesbrough -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 27 of its own 50 (54%); over 1.5 in 35 (70%); over 3.5 in 15 (30%). Away: over 2.5 in 15 of its 25 (60%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 30 of its own 50 (60%). Away: 17 of its 25 (68%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 12 of its own 50 (24%); failed to score in 13 (26%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Middlesbrough's own 50 matches read: Middlesbrough or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 17 (34%). Middlesbrough itself held the lead in 13, winning 13. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 9 of 25. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **The table makes Middlesbrough the bigger side: 5th against 15th of 24 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Queens Park Rangers takes 0.75 points a game, Middlesbrough 2.14 -- the block form is Middlesbrough's. +0.16 points a game is the venue form gap, in Queens Park Rangers's favour: Queens Park Rangers takes 1.48 a game at home over the last two seasons, Middlesbrough 1.32 away. Queens Park Rangers scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Middlesbrough scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Queens Park Rangers's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Middlesbrough is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 59% of their games, both teams scoring in 62%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 48%. On the record this leans a goals match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Middlesbrough lands the first blow more often (26 of 50 to 16 of 50); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Middlesbrough's hands -- ahead without winning in 8 of 50; Queens Park Rangers finds its goals latest of all -- 18 of its 68 after the 75th, and Middlesbrough concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Queens Park Rangers 1.59 goals expected, Middlesbrough 1.69, from two seasons of scoring rates (25 home matches and 25 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Queens Park Rangers 2.75 (36%), the draw 4.34 (23%), Middlesbrough 2.46 (41%). The market's averages: 3.18, 3.60 and 2.20. The widest gap is on the draw: the market is shorter (3.60) than our 4.34 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 1.57 (64%), under 2.5 2.76 (36%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.76, under 2.5 2.13. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 1.54 (65%), no 2.86 (35%). The market's averages: yes 1.59, no 2.20. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Queens Park Rangers's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 15 (60%). In Middlesbrough's own 25 away matches read, 9 (36%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 48% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/championship/2026-09-05/queens-park-rangers-v-middlesbrough/halftime/ Built 2026-09-05T05:39:39+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.