# West Ham United v Derby County — the Match Wizard Championship, game week 5 — Saturday, 5 September 2026, kick-off 15:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. West Ham United: 42 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season in the Premier League. Derby County: 50 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season. Look and learn: it is early in the season, so nearly everything counted here was earned last season -- by squads and dugouts a summer window may have reshaped. Treat the first five weeks as pointers while the new shapes settle, not proof. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **West Ham United is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### West Ham United -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 13th of 24 after 4 games, with 5 points -- too few games yet to mean much. It was not in this division last season -- it came down from the Premier League, where it finished 18th of 20. - **Its block:** New to the division this season, so it takes no block from last season's final table. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the top block (1st to 8th). Against that block it has won 0, drew 5, lost 7 of 12 -- 5 points of 36. At home against them: won 0 of 6. Away against them: won 0 of 6. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 0, drew 5, lost 7 of 12 (0.42 a game); against the middle block won 4, drew 4, lost 7 of 15 (1.07 a game); against the bottom block won 6, drew 1, lost 6 of 13 (1.46 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 1, lost 0 of 2 (2.00 a game). ### Derby County -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 18th of 24 after 4 games, with 4 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 8th of 24 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the top block (1st to 8th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 4 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side new to its division. Against that block it has won 0, drew 1, lost 0 of 1. At home against them: won 0 of 1. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 4, lost 8 of 14 (0.71 a game); against the middle block won 9, drew 2, lost 6 of 17 (1.71 a game); against the bottom block won 10, drew 3, lost 5 of 18 (1.83 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 1, lost 0 of 1 (1.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **-0.25 points a game is the venue form gap, in Derby County's favour: West Ham United takes 1.19 a game at home over the last two seasons, Derby County 1.44 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### West Ham United -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 1, drew 0, lost 1 of 2, scoring 5 and conceding 4. Last season at home in the Premier League: won 6, drew 4, lost 9 of 19, scoring 27 and conceding 30 -- 1.16 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Wolverhampton Wanderers 4-2 at home; drew with Watford 1-1 away; lost to Charlton Athletic 1-2 at home; drew with Burnley 2-2 away; beat Leeds United 3-0 at home in the Premier League. The last of these is from last season. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 42 matches with one recorded (37, 5 apiece), most recently Nuno Herlander Simões Espírito Santo with 37. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Derby County -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 1, drew 0, lost 1 of 2, scoring 3 and conceding 2. Last season away: won 10, drew 3, lost 10 of 23, scoring 36 and conceding 32 -- 1.43 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Portsmouth 2-0 away; lost to Swansea City 0-3 at home; drew with Cardiff City 2-2 at home; lost to Charlton Athletic 1-2 away; lost to Sheffield United 1-2 at home. The last of these is from last season. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 36 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by John Eustace. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **West Ham United scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Derby County scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 61-75.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: West Ham United scores most in the 76-90+ band (13 of 54); West Ham United concedes most in the 76-90+ band (17 of 72); Derby County scores most in the 31-45+ band (15 of 72); Derby County concedes most in the 61-75 band (16 of 66). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### West Ham United -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.7 a game over its last 42 league matches; at home, 1.5 for and 1.6 against over 21. - **When it scores:** Of 54 scored across its own 42 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 4; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 13. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 13 of 54 (24%). - **When it concedes:** Of 72 conceded across its own 42 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 12; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 15; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 72 (24%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 18 of its 42 read -- then won 9, drew 5, lost 4; conceded first in 22 -- pulled back 2 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 10 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 11 of its 42 read, winning 8 of them; trailed by two in 14, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 9. ### Derby County -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.6 for and 1.4 against over 25. - **When it scores:** Of 72 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 15; 46-60: 14; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 12. - **When it concedes:** Of 66 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 12; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 16; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 66 (24%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 27 of its 50 read -- then won 19, drew 2, lost 6; conceded first in 23 -- pulled back 2 wins and 8 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 14 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 11 of its 50 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 6, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 10. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 58% of their games, both teams scoring in 61%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 46%. On the record this leans a goals match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- West Ham United's numbers over its games, Derby County's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In West Ham United's own 21 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (52%). In Derby County's own 25 away matches read, 10 (40%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 46% of games. ### West Ham United -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 26 of its own 42 (62%); over 1.5 in 37 (88%); over 3.5 in 13 (31%). At home: over 2.5 in 14 of its 21 (67%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 24 of its own 42 (57%). At home: 13 of its 21 (62%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 7 of its own 42 (17%); failed to score in 13 (31%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over West Ham United's own 42 matches read: West Ham United or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 25 (60%). West Ham United itself held the lead in 11, winning 8. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 11 of 21. ### Derby County -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 27 of its own 50 (54%); over 1.5 in 39 (78%); over 3.5 in 12 (24%). Away: over 2.5 in 16 of its 25 (64%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 32 of its own 50 (64%). Away: 16 of its 25 (64%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 13 of its own 50 (26%); failed to score in 5 (10%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Derby County's own 50 matches read: Derby County or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 17 (34%). Derby County itself held the lead in 11, winning 10. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 10 of 25. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **West Ham United is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. -0.25 points a game is the venue form gap, in Derby County's favour: West Ham United takes 1.19 a game at home over the last two seasons, Derby County 1.44 away. West Ham United scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Derby County scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 61-75. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 58% of their games, both teams scoring in 61%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 46%. On the record this leans a goals match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Derby County lands the first blow more often (27 of 50 to 18 of 42); a one-goal lead has not been safe in West Ham United's hands -- ahead without winning in 9 of 42; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Derby County's hands -- ahead without winning in 10 of 50; West Ham United finds its goals latest of all -- 13 of its 54 after the 75th. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: West Ham United 1.47 goals expected, Derby County 1.90, from two seasons of scoring rates (21 home matches and 25 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: West Ham United's figures include last season in the Premier League, where goals came against different company. - **Match result:** Our tissue: West Ham United 3.34 (30%), the draw 4.49 (22%), Derby County 2.09 (48%). The market's averages: 1.40, 5.00 and 7.00. The widest gap is on Derby County: the market offers 7.00 against our 2.09. If our figures are right that is value; nothing proves they are. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 1.53 (65%), under 2.5 2.88 (35%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.66, under 2.5 2.18. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 1.53 (65%), no 2.89 (35%). The market's averages: yes 1.83, no 1.85. The market offers more than our number on yes -- if our figures are right that is value; nothing proves they are. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In West Ham United's own 21 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (52%). In Derby County's own 25 away matches read, 10 (40%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 46% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/championship/2026-09-05/west-ham-united-v-derby-county/halftime/ Built 2026-09-05T05:39:45+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.