# Burnley v Wolverhampton Wanderers — the Match Wizard Championship, game week 11 — Friday, 16 October 2026, kick-off 20:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Burnley: 48 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season in the Premier League. Wolverhampton Wanderers: 47 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season in the Premier League. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Burnley is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Burnley -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 21st of 24 after 10 games, with 8 points. It was not in this division last season -- it came down from the Premier League, where it finished 19th of 20. - **Its block:** New to the division this season, so it takes no block from last season's final table. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side new to its division. Against that block it has won 0, drew 1, lost 0 of 1. At home against them: won 0 of 1. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 0, drew 8, lost 7 of 15 (0.53 a game); against the middle block won 2, drew 2, lost 14 of 18 (0.44 a game); against the bottom block won 3, drew 4, lost 7 of 14 (0.93 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 1, lost 0 of 1 (1.00 a game). ### Wolverhampton Wanderers -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 10th of 24 after 9 games, with 14 points. It was not in this division last season -- it came down from the Premier League, where it finished 20th of 20. - **Its block:** New to the division this season, so it takes no block from last season's final table. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side new to its division. Against that block it has won 0, drew 0, lost 2 of 2. At home against them: won 0 of 1. Away against them: won 0 of 1. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 2, lost 9 of 13 (0.62 a game); against the middle block won 2, drew 7, lost 8 of 17 (0.76 a game); against the bottom block won 3, drew 4, lost 8 of 15 (0.87 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 0, lost 2 of 2 (0.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+0.17 points a game is the venue form gap, in Burnley's favour: Burnley takes 0.71 a game at home over the last two seasons, Wolverhampton Wanderers 0.54 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Burnley -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 0, drew 4, lost 1 of 5, scoring 7 and conceding 8. Last season at home in the Premier League: won 2, drew 7, lost 10 of 19, scoring 18 and conceding 29 -- 0.68 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: drew with Charlton Athletic 2-2 at home; beat Watford 4-0 away; drew with Derby County 1-1 at home; lost to Swansea City 1-3 away; drew with Wrexham 1-1 away. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 44 matches with one recorded (34, 10 apiece), most recently Nicky Hayen with 10. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Wolverhampton Wanderers -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 2, drew 1, lost 2 of 5, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Last season away in the Premier League: won 0, drew 6, lost 13 of 19, scoring 8 and conceding 34 -- 0.32 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Bolton Wanderers 1-3 at home; lost to Middlesbrough 0-1 away; beat West Bromwich Albion 1-0 at home; beat Sheffield United 1-0 away; drew with Birmingham City 2-2 away. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 4 different managers took its 47 matches with one recorded (27, 10, 9, 1 apiece), most recently Paulo César da Silva Peixoto with 9. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Burnley scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Wolverhampton Wanderers scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. The shapes mesh: Wolverhampton Wanderers's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Burnley is softest.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Burnley scores most in the 76-90+ band (13 of 53); Burnley concedes most in the 76-90+ band (21 of 94); Wolverhampton Wanderers scores most in the 76-90+ band (11 of 43); Wolverhampton Wanderers concedes most in the 31-45+ band (18 of 82). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Burnley -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.1 and concedes 2.0 a game over its last 48 league matches; at home, 1.0 for and 1.5 against over 24. - **When it scores:** Of 53 scored across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 13. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 13 of 53 (25%). - **When it concedes:** Of 94 conceded across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 18; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 19; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 14; 76-90+: 21. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 21 of 94 (22%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 14 of its 48 read -- then won 4, drew 5, lost 5; conceded first in 32 -- pulled back 1 win and 8 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 13 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 4 of its 48 read, winning 4 of them; trailed by two in 24, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 11. ### Wolverhampton Wanderers -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 0.9 and concedes 1.7 a game over its last 47 league matches; away, 0.7 for and 1.8 against over 24. - **When it scores:** Of 43 scored across its own 47 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 11. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 11 of 43 (26%). - **When it concedes:** Of 82 conceded across its own 47 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 13; 31-45+: 18; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 16; 76-90+: 17. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 13 of its 47 read -- then won 6, drew 6, lost 1; conceded first in 32 -- pulled back 1 win and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 9 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 4 of its 47 read, winning 4 of them; trailed by two in 21, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 7. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 52% of their games, both teams scoring in 57%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 44%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Burnley's numbers over its games, Wolverhampton Wanderers's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Burnley's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (42%). In Wolverhampton Wanderers's own 24 away matches read, 11 (46%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 44% of games. ### Burnley -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 26 of its own 48 (54%); over 1.5 in 42 (88%); over 3.5 in 21 (44%). At home: over 2.5 in 9 of its 24 (38%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 31 of its own 48 (65%). At home: 13 of its 24 (54%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 5 of its own 48 (10%); failed to score in 14 (29%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Burnley's own 48 matches read: Burnley or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 28 (58%). Burnley itself held the lead in 4, winning 4. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 10 of 24. ### Wolverhampton Wanderers -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 23 of its own 47 (49%); over 1.5 in 36 (77%); over 3.5 in 15 (32%). Away: over 2.5 in 11 of its 24 (46%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 23 of its own 47 (49%). Away: 10 of its 24 (42%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 6 of its own 47 (13%); failed to score in 20 (43%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Wolverhampton Wanderers's own 47 matches read: Wolverhampton Wanderers or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 25 (53%). Wolverhampton Wanderers itself held the lead in 4, winning 4. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 11 of 24. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Burnley is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. +0.17 points a game is the venue form gap, in Burnley's favour: Burnley takes 0.71 a game at home over the last two seasons, Wolverhampton Wanderers 0.54 away. Burnley scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Wolverhampton Wanderers scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. The shapes mesh: Wolverhampton Wanderers's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Burnley is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 52% of their games, both teams scoring in 57%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 44%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (14 of 48 and 13 of 47); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Burnley's hands -- ahead without winning in 11 of 48; Burnley finds its goals latest of all -- 13 of its 53 after the 75th; Wolverhampton Wanderers finds its goals latest of all -- 11 of its 43 after the 75th, and Burnley concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Burnley 1.34 goals expected, Wolverhampton Wanderers 0.95, from two seasons of scoring rates (24 home matches and 24 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: Burnley's figures include last season in the Premier League, where goals came against different company; Wolverhampton Wanderers's figures include last season in the Premier League, where goals came against different company. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Burnley 2.19 (46%), the draw 3.60 (28%), Wolverhampton Wanderers 3.77 (27%). The market's averages: 2.86, 3.48 and 2.30. The widest gap is on Wolverhampton Wanderers: the market is shorter (2.30) than our 3.77 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 2.49 (40%), under 2.5 1.67 (60%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.79, under 2.5 1.95. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 2.21 (45%), no 1.83 (55%). The market's averages: yes 1.65, no 2.15. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Burnley's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (42%). In Wolverhampton Wanderers's own 24 away matches read, 11 (46%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 44% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/championship/2026-10-16/burnley-v-wolverhampton-wanderers/halftime/ Built 2026-10-14T18:31:58+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.