# Derby County v Stoke City — the Match Wizard Championship, game week 11 — Saturday, 17 October 2026, kick-off 15:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Derby County: 50 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season. Stoke City: 50 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **The table makes Derby County the bigger side: 8th against 17th of 24 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Derby County takes 1.76 points a game, Stoke City 0.50 -- the block form is Derby County's.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Derby County -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 23rd of 24 after 10 games, with 6 points. Last season it finished 8th of 24 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the top block (1st to 8th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 10 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the bottom block (17th to 24th). Against that block it has won 9, drew 3, lost 5 of 17 -- 30 points of 51. At home against them: won 4 of 9. Away against them: won 5 of 8. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 4, lost 7 of 13 (0.77 a game); against the middle block won 9, drew 1, lost 7 of 17 (1.65 a game); against the bottom block won 9, drew 3, lost 5 of 17 (1.76 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 2, lost 1 of 3 (0.67 a game). ### Stoke City -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 8th of 24 after 10 games, with 16 points. Last season it finished 17th of 24 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the bottom block (17th to 24th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 10 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the top block (1st to 8th). Against that block it has won 2, drew 2, lost 12 of 16 -- 8 points of 48. At home against them: won 1 of 8. Away against them: won 1 of 8. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 2, lost 12 of 16 (0.50 a game); against the middle block won 7, drew 4, lost 7 of 18 (1.39 a game); against the bottom block won 6, drew 4, lost 3 of 13 (1.69 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 1, lost 1 of 3 (1.33 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+0.56 points a game is the venue form gap, in Derby County's favour: Derby County takes 1.48 a game at home over the last two seasons, Stoke City 0.92 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Derby County -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 0, drew 2, lost 3 of 5, scoring 4 and conceding 9. Last season at home: won 10, drew 5, lost 5 of 20, scoring 27 and conceding 20 -- 1.75 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Queens Park Rangers 1-4 away; drew with Wrexham 1-1 at home; drew with Burnley 1-1 away; lost to Birmingham City 1-2 at home; lost to West Bromwich Albion 0-1 at home. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 36 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by John Eustace. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Stoke City -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 2, drew 1, lost 2 of 5, scoring 7 and conceding 10. Last season away: won 4, drew 4, lost 12 of 20, scoring 12 and conceding 26 -- 0.80 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Middlesbrough 2-3 at home; beat Bolton Wanderers 2-1 away; beat Sheffield United 2-1 at home; beat Watford 2-1 away; drew with Cardiff City 1-1 away. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 35 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Mark Robins. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Derby County scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 61-75; Stoke City scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Derby County scores most in the 31-45+ band (15 of 68); Derby County concedes most in the 61-75 band (15 of 66); Stoke City scores most in the 31-45+ band (13 of 59); Stoke City concedes most in the 76-90+ band (21 of 68). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Derby County -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.2 for and 1.2 against over 25. - **When it scores:** Of 68 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 15; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 12. - **When it concedes:** Of 66 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 12; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 15; 76-90+: 15. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 15 of 66 (23%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 27 of its 50 read -- then won 18, drew 3, lost 6; conceded first in 23 -- pulled back 2 wins and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 13 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 11 of its 50 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 6, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 9. ### Stoke City -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 0.8 for and 1.4 against over 25. - **When it scores:** Of 59 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 8. - **When it concedes:** Of 68 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 16; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 21. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 21 of 68 (31%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 24 of its 50 read -- then won 15, drew 4, lost 5; conceded first in 22 -- pulled back 1 win and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 11 of its 50 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 14, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 9. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 52% of their games, both teams scoring in 58%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 40%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Derby County's numbers over its games, Stoke City's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Derby County's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 6 (24%). In Stoke City's own 25 away matches read, 14 (56%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 40% of games. ### Derby County -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 27 of its own 50 (54%); over 1.5 in 40 (80%); over 3.5 in 10 (20%). At home: over 2.5 in 11 of its 25 (44%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 32 of its own 50 (64%). At home: 16 of its 25 (64%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 12 of its own 50 (24%); failed to score in 6 (12%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Derby County's own 50 matches read: Derby County or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 17 (34%). Derby County itself held the lead in 11, winning 10. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 6 of 25. ### Stoke City -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 25 of its own 50 (50%); over 1.5 in 38 (76%); over 3.5 in 12 (24%). Away: over 2.5 in 9 of its 25 (36%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 26 of its own 50 (52%). Away: 10 of its 25 (40%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 13 of its own 50 (26%); failed to score in 15 (30%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Stoke City's own 50 matches read: Stoke City or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 25 (50%). Stoke City itself held the lead in 11, winning 10. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 14 of 25. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **The table makes Derby County the bigger side: 8th against 17th of 24 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Derby County takes 1.76 points a game, Stoke City 0.50 -- the block form is Derby County's. +0.56 points a game is the venue form gap, in Derby County's favour: Derby County takes 1.48 a game at home over the last two seasons, Stoke City 0.92 away. Derby County scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 61-75; Stoke City scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 52% of their games, both teams scoring in 58%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 40%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (27 of 50 and 24 of 50); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Derby County's hands -- ahead without winning in 9 of 50; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Stoke City's hands -- ahead without winning in 9 of 50. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Derby County 1.30 goals expected, Stoke City 0.82, from two seasons of scoring rates (25 home matches and 25 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Derby County 2.09 (48%), the draw 3.50 (29%), Stoke City 4.25 (24%). The market's averages: 2.85, 3.30 and 2.40. The widest gap is on Stoke City: the market is shorter (2.40) than our 4.25 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 2.80 (36%), under 2.5 1.56 (64%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.93, under 2.5 1.81. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 2.45 (41%), no 1.69 (59%). The market's averages: yes 1.72, no 1.98. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Derby County's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 6 (24%). In Stoke City's own 25 away matches read, 14 (56%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 40% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/championship/2026-10-17/derby-county-v-stoke-city/halftime/ Built 2026-10-16T06:05:40+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.