# Norwich City v Portsmouth — the Match Wizard Championship, game week 11 — Saturday, 17 October 2026, kick-off 15:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Norwich City: 50 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season. Portsmouth: 50 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **The table makes Norwich City the bigger side: 9th against 18th of 24 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Norwich City takes 1.56 points a game, Portsmouth 0.47 -- the block form is Norwich City's.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Norwich City -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 20th of 24 after 10 games, with 9 points. Last season it finished 9th of 24 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (9th to 16th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 10 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the bottom block (17th to 24th). Against that block it has won 7, drew 4, lost 5 of 16 -- 25 points of 48. At home against them: won 3 of 9. Away against them: won 4 of 7. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 5, drew 0, lost 10 of 15 (1.00 a game); against the middle block won 7, drew 3, lost 7 of 17 (1.41 a game); against the bottom block won 7, drew 4, lost 5 of 16 (1.56 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 1 of 2 (1.50 a game). ### Portsmouth -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 16th of 24 after 9 games, with 11 points. Last season it finished 18th of 24 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the bottom block (17th to 24th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 9 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (9th to 16th). Against that block it has won 1, drew 5, lost 11 of 17 -- 8 points of 51. At home against them: won 1 of 8. Away against them: won 0 of 9. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 5, drew 3, lost 9 of 17 (1.06 a game); against the middle block won 1, drew 5, lost 11 of 17 (0.47 a game); against the bottom block won 7, drew 5, lost 2 of 14 (1.86 a game); against sides new to the division won 2, drew 0, lost 0 of 2 (3.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+0.44 points a game is the venue form gap, in Norwich City's favour: Norwich City takes 1.44 a game at home over the last two seasons, Portsmouth 1.00 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Norwich City -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 2, drew 0, lost 3 of 5, scoring 10 and conceding 9. Last season at home: won 9, drew 3, lost 8 of 20, scoring 23 and conceding 21 -- 1.50 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Southampton 0-1 at home; lost to Swansea City 1-2 away; lost to Bolton Wanderers 3-4 at home; lost to Middlesbrough 3-4 away; beat Birmingham City 2-1 at home. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 33 matches with one recorded (24, 9 apiece), most recently Philippe Clement with 24. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Portsmouth -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 1, drew 1, lost 2 of 4, scoring 4 and conceding 4. Last season away: won 5, drew 5, lost 10 of 20, scoring 22 and conceding 40 -- 1.00 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Sheffield United 3-2 at home; lost to Southampton 0-1 away; drew with Blackburn Rovers 2-2 at home; drew with Charlton Athletic 0-0 away; beat Cardiff City 2-0 at home. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 33 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by John Mousinho. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Norwich City scores heaviest in the 61-75 spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Portsmouth scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 46-60.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Norwich City scores most in the 61-75 band (20 of 71); Norwich City concedes most in the 46-60 band (14 of 67); Portsmouth scores most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 57); Portsmouth concedes most in the 46-60 band (17 of 74). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Norwich City -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.3 for and 1.2 against over 25. - **When it scores:** Of 71 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 20; 76-90+: 10. - **When it concedes:** Of 67 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 12; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 14; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 67 (21%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 26 of its 50 read -- then won 16, drew 4, lost 6; conceded first in 24 -- pulled back 4 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 15 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 12 of its 50 read, winning 12 of them; trailed by two in 9, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 10. ### Portsmouth -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.1 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.1 for and 1.8 against over 24. - **When it scores:** Of 57 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 57 (25%). - **When it concedes:** Of 74 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 13; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 17; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 13. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 24 of its 50 read -- then won 14, drew 8, lost 2; conceded first in 24 -- pulled back 1 win and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 9 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 9 of its 50 read, winning 9 of them; trailed by two in 13, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 10. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 50% of their games, both teams scoring in 58%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 47%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Norwich City's numbers over its games, Portsmouth's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Norwich City's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (44%). In Portsmouth's own 24 away matches read, 12 (50%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 47% of games. ### Norwich City -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 26 of its own 50 (52%); over 1.5 in 40 (80%); over 3.5 in 10 (20%). At home: over 2.5 in 11 of its 25 (44%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 30 of its own 50 (60%). At home: 14 of its 25 (56%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 8 of its own 50 (16%); failed to score in 12 (24%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Norwich City's own 50 matches read: Norwich City or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 21 (42%). Norwich City itself held the lead in 12, winning 12. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 11 of 25. ### Portsmouth -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 24 of its own 50 (48%); over 1.5 in 36 (72%); over 3.5 in 15 (30%). Away: over 2.5 in 13 of its 24 (54%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 28 of its own 50 (56%). Away: 15 of its 24 (62%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 9 of its own 50 (18%); failed to score in 15 (30%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Portsmouth's own 50 matches read: Portsmouth or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 22 (44%). Portsmouth itself held the lead in 9, winning 9. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 12 of 24. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **The table makes Norwich City the bigger side: 9th against 18th of 24 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Norwich City takes 1.56 points a game, Portsmouth 0.47 -- the block form is Norwich City's. +0.44 points a game is the venue form gap, in Norwich City's favour: Norwich City takes 1.44 a game at home over the last two seasons, Portsmouth 1.00 away. Norwich City scores heaviest in the 61-75 spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Portsmouth scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 46-60. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 50% of their games, both teams scoring in 58%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 47%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (26 of 50 and 24 of 50); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Norwich City's hands -- ahead without winning in 10 of 50; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Portsmouth's hands -- ahead without winning in 10 of 50; Portsmouth finds its goals latest of all -- 14 of its 57 after the 75th. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Norwich City 1.67 goals expected, Portsmouth 1.11, from two seasons of scoring rates (25 home matches and 24 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Norwich City 1.98 (51%), the draw 4.12 (24%), Portsmouth 3.97 (25%). The market's averages: 1.75, 3.90 and 4.27. All three outcomes sit close to our numbers -- no argument either way. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 1.90 (53%), under 2.5 2.11 (47%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.71, under 2.5 2.06. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 1.84 (54%), no 2.19 (46%). The market's averages: yes 1.66, no 2.09. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Norwich City's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (44%). In Portsmouth's own 24 away matches read, 12 (50%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 47% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/championship/2026-10-17/norwich-city-v-portsmouth/halftime/ Built 2026-10-16T06:05:42+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.