# Portsmouth v Swansea City — the Match Wizard Championship, game week 14 — Tuesday, 3 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Portsmouth: 50 league matches in the bank, 13 from this season and the rest from last season. Swansea City: 50 league matches in the bank, 13 from this season and the rest from last season. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **The table makes Swansea City the bigger side: 11th against 18th of 24 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Portsmouth takes 0.59 points a game, Swansea City 2.47 -- the block form is Swansea City's.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Portsmouth -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 11th of 24 after 13 games, with 19 points. Last season it finished 18th of 24 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the bottom block (17th to 24th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 13 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (9th to 16th). Against that block it has won 2, drew 4, lost 11 of 17 -- 10 points of 51. At home against them: won 1 of 7. Away against them: won 1 of 10. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 5, drew 3, lost 8 of 16 (1.12 a game); against the middle block won 2, drew 4, lost 11 of 17 (0.59 a game); against the bottom block won 7, drew 5, lost 1 of 13 (2.00 a game); against sides new to the division won 2, drew 2, lost 0 of 4 (2.00 a game). ### Swansea City -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 3rd of 24 after 13 games, with 26 points. Last season it finished 11th of 24 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (9th to 16th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 13 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the bottom block (17th to 24th). Against that block it has won 12, drew 1, lost 2 of 15 -- 37 points of 45. At home against them: won 8 of 8. Away against them: won 4 of 7. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 3, drew 3, lost 11 of 17 (0.71 a game); against the middle block won 6, drew 5, lost 4 of 15 (1.53 a game); against the bottom block won 12, drew 1, lost 2 of 15 (2.47 a game); against sides new to the division won 2, drew 0, lost 1 of 3 (2.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+0.14 points a game is the venue form gap, in Portsmouth's favour: Portsmouth takes 1.38 a game at home over the last two seasons, Swansea City 1.24 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Portsmouth -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 3, drew 1, lost 2 of 6, scoring 10 and conceding 10. Last season at home: won 6, drew 5, lost 7 of 18, scoring 20 and conceding 17 -- 1.28 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: drew with Burnley 0-0 away; beat Millwall 2-1 at home; drew with Wolverhampton Wanderers 1-1 away; beat Norwich City 1-0 away; beat Sheffield United 3-2 at home. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 33 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by John Mousinho. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Swansea City -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 4, drew 0, lost 2 of 6, scoring 9 and conceding 10. Last season away: won 5, drew 4, lost 10 of 19, scoring 19 and conceding 29 -- 1.00 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Blackburn Rovers 4-0 at home; lost to Queens Park Rangers 0-5 away; lost to West Ham United 0-1 at home; beat Millwall 1-0 away; beat Norwich City 2-1 at home. - **The dugout:** Our feed records no manager against any of its banked matches, so the dugout cannot be read. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Portsmouth scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Swansea City scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Portsmouth scores most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 57); Portsmouth concedes most in the 46-60 band (14 of 70); Swansea City scores most in the 76-90+ band (16 of 67); Swansea City concedes most in the 31-45+ band (17 of 62). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Portsmouth -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.1 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.2 for and 1.1 against over 24. - **When it scores:** Of 57 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 57 (25%). - **When it concedes:** Of 70 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 13; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 14; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 13. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 23 of its 50 read -- then won 14, drew 7, lost 2; conceded first in 24 -- pulled back 2 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 12 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 9 of its 50 read, winning 9 of them; trailed by two in 11, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 9. ### Swansea City -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.1 for and 1.6 against over 25. - **When it scores:** Of 67 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 14; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 67 (24%). - **When it concedes:** Of 62 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 17; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 12. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 23 of its 50 read -- then won 19, drew 2, lost 2; conceded first in 24 -- pulled back 4 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 16 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 13 of its 50 read, winning 12 of them; trailed by two in 13, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 5. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 51% of their games, both teams scoring in 53%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 49%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Portsmouth's numbers over its games, Swansea City's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Portsmouth's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 9 (38%). In Swansea City's own 25 away matches read, 15 (60%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 49% of games. ### Portsmouth -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 23 of its own 50 (46%); over 1.5 in 35 (70%); over 3.5 in 14 (28%). At home: over 2.5 in 11 of its 24 (46%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 28 of its own 50 (56%). At home: 13 of its 24 (54%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 10 of its own 50 (20%); failed to score in 15 (30%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Portsmouth's own 50 matches read: Portsmouth or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 20 (40%). Portsmouth itself held the lead in 9, winning 9. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 9 of 24. ### Swansea City -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 28 of its own 50 (56%); over 1.5 in 38 (76%); over 3.5 in 11 (22%). Away: over 2.5 in 15 of its 25 (60%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 25 of its own 50 (50%). Away: 13 of its 25 (52%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 16 of its own 50 (32%); failed to score in 12 (24%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Swansea City's own 50 matches read: Swansea City or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 26 (52%). Swansea City itself held the lead in 13, winning 12. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 15 of 25. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **The table makes Swansea City the bigger side: 11th against 18th of 24 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Portsmouth takes 0.59 points a game, Swansea City 2.47 -- the block form is Swansea City's. +0.14 points a game is the venue form gap, in Portsmouth's favour: Portsmouth takes 1.38 a game at home over the last two seasons, Swansea City 1.24 away. Portsmouth scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Swansea City scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 51% of their games, both teams scoring in 53%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 49%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (23 of 50 and 23 of 50); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Swansea City's -- two goals clear in 13 of 50, against 9 of 50; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Portsmouth's hands -- ahead without winning in 9 of 50; Portsmouth finds its goals latest of all -- 14 of its 57 after the 75th; Swansea City finds its goals latest of all -- 16 of its 67 after the 75th. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Portsmouth 1.40 goals expected, Swansea City 1.08, from two seasons of scoring rates (24 home matches and 25 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Portsmouth 2.26 (44%), the draw 3.75 (27%), Swansea City 3.45 (29%). The market's averages: 2.53, 3.24 and 2.54. The widest gap is on Swansea City: the market is shorter (2.54) than our 3.45 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 2.22 (45%), under 2.5 1.82 (55%). The market's averages: over 2.5 2.00, under 2.5 1.85. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 2.01 (50%), no 1.99 (50%). The market's averages: yes 1.70, no 1.95. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Portsmouth's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 9 (38%). In Swansea City's own 25 away matches read, 15 (60%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 49% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/championship/2026-11-03/portsmouth-v-swansea-city/halftime/ Built 2026-11-02T10:31:36+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.