# Liverpool v Nottingham Forest — the Match Wizard Premier League, game week 2 — Saturday, 29 August 2026, kick-off 12:30 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Liverpool: 39 league matches in the bank, 1 from this season and the rest from last season. Nottingham Forest: 39 league matches in the bank, 1 from this season and the rest from last season. Look and learn: it is early in the season, so nearly everything counted here was earned last season -- by squads and dugouts a summer window may have reshaped. Treat the first five weeks as pointers while the new shapes settle, not proof. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **The table makes Liverpool the bigger side: 5th against 16th of 20 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Liverpool takes 1.79 points a game, Nottingham Forest 0.67 -- the block form is Liverpool's.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Liverpool -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 10th of 20 after 1 game, with 1 point -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 5th of 20 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the top block (1st to 6th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 1 game old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the bottom block (14th to 20th). Against that block it has won 7, drew 4, lost 3 of 14 -- 25 points of 42. At home against them: won 3 of 7. Away against them: won 4 of 7. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 3, drew 1, lost 6 of 10 (1.00 a game); against the middle block won 7, drew 5, lost 3 of 15 (1.73 a game); against the bottom block won 7, drew 4, lost 3 of 14 (1.79 a game). ### Nottingham Forest -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 12th of 20 after 1 game, with 0 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 16th of 20 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the bottom block (14th to 20th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 1 game old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the top block (1st to 6th). Against that block it has won 1, drew 5, lost 6 of 12 -- 8 points of 36. At home against them: won 0 of 6. Away against them: won 1 of 6. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 1, drew 5, lost 6 of 12 (0.67 a game); against the middle block won 4, drew 2, lost 8 of 14 (1.00 a game); against the bottom block won 6, drew 4, lost 3 of 13 (1.69 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+0.63 points a game is the venue form gap, in Liverpool's favour: Liverpool takes 1.89 a game at home over the last two seasons, Nottingham Forest 1.26 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Liverpool -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** No home game yet this season. Last season at home: won 10, drew 6, lost 3 of 19, scoring 34 and conceding 20 -- 1.89 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: drew with Newcastle United 2-2 away; drew with Brentford 1-1 at home; lost to Aston Villa 2-4 away; drew with Chelsea 1-1 at home; lost to Manchester United 2-3 away. The last 4 of these are from last season. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 39 matches with one recorded (38, 1 apiece), most recently Andoni Iraola Sagarna with 1. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Nottingham Forest -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** No away game yet this season. Last season away: won 7, drew 3, lost 9 of 19, scoring 28 and conceding 28 -- 1.26 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Leeds United 0-1 at home; drew with AFC Bournemouth 1-1 at home; lost to Manchester United 2-3 away; drew with Newcastle United 1-1 at home; beat Chelsea 3-1 away. The last 4 of these are from last season. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 5 different managers took its 39 matches with one recorded (18, 12, 5, 3, 1 apiece), most recently Oliver Glasner with 1. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Liverpool scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Nottingham Forest scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Liverpool's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Nottingham Forest is softest.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Liverpool scores most in the 76-90+ band (21 of 65); Liverpool concedes most in the 76-90+ band (17 of 55); Nottingham Forest scores most in the 76-90+ band (13 of 48); Nottingham Forest concedes most in the 76-90+ band (16 of 52). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Liverpool -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.7 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 39 league matches; at home, 1.8 for and 1.1 against over 19. - **When it scores:** Of 65 scored across its own 39 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 15; 46-60: 14; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 21. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 21 of 65 (32%). - **When it concedes:** Of 55 conceded across its own 39 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 3; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 55 (31%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 22 of its 39 read -- then won 16, drew 5, lost 1; conceded first in 15 -- pulled back 1 win and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 6 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 13 of its 39 read, winning 12 of them; trailed by two in 6, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 7. ### Nottingham Forest -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 39 league matches; away, 1.5 for and 1.5 against over 19. - **When it scores:** Of 48 scored across its own 39 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 2; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 13. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 13 of 48 (27%). - **When it concedes:** Of 52 conceded across its own 39 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 3; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 52 (31%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 11 of its 39 read -- then won 8, drew 3, lost 0; conceded first in 25 -- pulled back 3 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 14 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 9 of its 39 read, winning 9 of them; trailed by two in 11, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 4. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 56% of their games, both teams scoring in 58%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 58%. On the record this leans a goals match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Liverpool's numbers over its games, Nottingham Forest's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Liverpool's own 19 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (53%). In Nottingham Forest's own 19 away matches read, 12 (63%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 58% of games. ### Liverpool -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 24 of its own 39 (62%); over 1.5 in 33 (85%); over 3.5 in 12 (31%). At home: over 2.5 in 9 of its 19 (47%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 27 of its own 39 (69%). At home: 13 of its 19 (68%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 10 of its own 39 (26%); failed to score in 4 (10%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Liverpool's own 39 matches read: Liverpool or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 19 (49%). Liverpool itself held the lead in 13, winning 12. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 10 of 19. ### Nottingham Forest -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 20 of its own 39 (51%); over 1.5 in 31 (79%); over 3.5 in 10 (26%). Away: over 2.5 in 12 of its 19 (63%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 18 of its own 39 (46%). Away: 9 of its 19 (47%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 9 of its own 39 (23%); failed to score in 15 (38%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Nottingham Forest's own 39 matches read: Nottingham Forest or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 20 (51%). Nottingham Forest itself held the lead in 9, winning 9. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 12 of 19. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **The table makes Liverpool the bigger side: 5th against 16th of 20 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Liverpool takes 1.79 points a game, Nottingham Forest 0.67 -- the block form is Liverpool's. +0.63 points a game is the venue form gap, in Liverpool's favour: Liverpool takes 1.89 a game at home over the last two seasons, Nottingham Forest 1.26 away. Liverpool scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Nottingham Forest scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Liverpool's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Nottingham Forest is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 56% of their games, both teams scoring in 58%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 58%. On the record this leans a goals match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Liverpool lands the first blow more often (22 of 39 to 11 of 39); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Liverpool's -- two goals clear in 13 of 39, against 9 of 39; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Liverpool's hands -- ahead without winning in 7 of 39; Liverpool finds its goals latest of all -- 21 of its 65 after the 75th, and Nottingham Forest concedes most in that same spell; Nottingham Forest finds its goals latest of all -- 13 of its 48 after the 75th, and Liverpool concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Liverpool 1.68 goals expected, Nottingham Forest 1.26, from two seasons of scoring rates (19 home matches and 19 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Liverpool 2.12 (47%), the draw 4.17 (24%), Nottingham Forest 3.47 (29%). The market's averages: 1.48, 4.70 and 6.10. The widest gap is on Nottingham Forest: the market offers 6.10 against our 3.47. If our figures are right that is value; nothing proves they are. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 1.77 (56%), under 2.5 2.30 (44%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.57, under 2.5 2.22. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 1.71 (58%), no 2.40 (42%). The market's averages: yes 1.71, no 2.05. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Liverpool's own 19 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (53%). In Nottingham Forest's own 19 away matches read, 12 (63%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 58% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/epl/2026-08-29/liverpool-v-nottingham-forest/halftime/ Built 2026-08-27T05:36:07+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.