# Nottingham Forest v Tottenham Hotspur — the Match Wizard Premier League, game week 3 — Saturday, 5 September 2026, kick-off 15:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Nottingham Forest: 40 league matches in the bank, 2 from this season and the rest from last season. Tottenham Hotspur: 40 league matches in the bank, 2 from this season and the rest from last season. Look and learn: it is early in the season, so nearly everything counted here was earned last season -- by squads and dugouts a summer window may have reshaped. Treat the first five weeks as pointers while the new shapes settle, not proof. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Nottingham Forest and Tottenham Hotspur finished near neighbours last season -- 16th and 17th of 20 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Nottingham Forest takes 1.69 points a game, Tottenham Hotspur 1.50 -- nothing between them.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Nottingham Forest -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 15th of 20 after 2 games, with 1 point -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 16th of 20 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the bottom block (14th to 20th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 2 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the bottom block (14th to 20th). Against that block it has won 6, drew 4, lost 3 of 13 -- 22 points of 39. At home against them: won 3 of 7. Away against them: won 3 of 6. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 1, drew 6, lost 6 of 13 (0.69 a game); against the middle block won 4, drew 2, lost 8 of 14 (1.00 a game); against the bottom block won 6, drew 4, lost 3 of 13 (1.69 a game). ### Tottenham Hotspur -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 19th of 20 after 2 games, with 0 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 17th of 20 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the bottom block (14th to 20th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 2 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the bottom block (14th to 20th). Against that block it has won 5, drew 3, lost 4 of 12 -- 18 points of 36. At home against them: won 1 of 6. Away against them: won 4 of 6. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 3, lost 7 of 12 (0.75 a game); against the middle block won 3, drew 5, lost 8 of 16 (0.88 a game); against the bottom block won 5, drew 3, lost 4 of 12 (1.50 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **-0.30 points a game is the venue form gap, in Tottenham Hotspur's favour: Nottingham Forest takes 1.00 a game at home over the last two seasons, Tottenham Hotspur 1.30 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Nottingham Forest -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 0, drew 0, lost 1 of 1, scoring 0 and conceding 1. Last season at home: won 4, drew 8, lost 7 of 19, scoring 20 and conceding 23 -- 1.05 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: drew with Liverpool 2-2 away; lost to Leeds United 0-1 at home; drew with AFC Bournemouth 1-1 at home; lost to Manchester United 2-3 away; drew with Newcastle United 1-1 at home. The last 3 of these are from last season. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 5 different managers took its 40 matches with one recorded (18, 12, 5, 3, 2 apiece), most recently Oliver Glasner with 2. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Tottenham Hotspur -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 0, drew 0, lost 1 of 1, scoring 0 and conceding 3. Last season away: won 7, drew 5, lost 7 of 19, scoring 26 and conceding 26 -- 1.37 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Newcastle United 0-2 at home; lost to Brentford 0-3 away; beat Everton 1-0 at home; lost to Chelsea 1-2 away; drew with Leeds United 1-1 at home. The last 3 of these are from last season. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 3 different managers took its 40 matches with one recorded (26, 9, 5 apiece), most recently Roberto De Zerbi with 9. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Nottingham Forest scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Tottenham Hotspur scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. The shapes mesh: Tottenham Hotspur's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Nottingham Forest is softest.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Nottingham Forest scores most in the 76-90+ band (13 of 50); Nottingham Forest concedes most in the 76-90+ band (17 of 54); Tottenham Hotspur scores most in the 76-90+ band (13 of 48); Tottenham Hotspur concedes most in the 31-45+ band (20 of 62). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Nottingham Forest -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 40 league matches; at home, 1.0 for and 1.2 against over 20. - **When it scores:** Of 50 scored across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 3; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 13. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 13 of 50 (26%). - **When it concedes:** Of 54 conceded across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 3; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 54 (31%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 12 of its 40 read -- then won 8, drew 4, lost 0; conceded first in 25 -- pulled back 3 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 14 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 9 of its 40 read, winning 9 of them; trailed by two in 11, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 5. ### Tottenham Hotspur -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.6 a game over its last 40 league matches; away, 1.3 for and 1.4 against over 20. - **When it scores:** Of 48 scored across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 13. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 13 of 48 (27%). - **When it concedes:** Of 62 conceded across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 4; 31-45+: 20; 46-60: 6; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 14. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 17 of its 40 read -- then won 10, drew 4, lost 3; conceded first in 22 -- pulled back 0 wins and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 7 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 6 of its 40 read, winning 6 of them; trailed by two in 14, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 8. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 57% of their games, both teams scoring in 52%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 48%. On the record this leans a goals match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Nottingham Forest's numbers over its games, Tottenham Hotspur's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Nottingham Forest's own 20 home matches read, one appeared in 8 (40%). In Tottenham Hotspur's own 20 away matches read, 11 (55%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 48% of games. ### Nottingham Forest -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 21 of its own 40 (52%); over 1.5 in 32 (80%); over 3.5 in 11 (28%). At home: over 2.5 in 8 of its 20 (40%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 19 of its own 40 (48%). At home: 9 of its 20 (45%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 9 of its own 40 (22%); failed to score in 15 (38%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Nottingham Forest's own 40 matches read: Nottingham Forest or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 20 (50%). Nottingham Forest itself held the lead in 9, winning 9. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 8 of 20. ### Tottenham Hotspur -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 25 of its own 40 (62%); over 1.5 in 33 (82%); over 3.5 in 10 (25%). Away: over 2.5 in 13 of its 20 (65%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 23 of its own 40 (58%). Away: 10 of its 20 (50%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 9 of its own 40 (22%); failed to score in 9 (22%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Tottenham Hotspur's own 40 matches read: Tottenham Hotspur or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 20 (50%). Tottenham Hotspur itself held the lead in 6, winning 6. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 11 of 20. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Nottingham Forest and Tottenham Hotspur finished near neighbours last season -- 16th and 17th of 20 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Nottingham Forest takes 1.69 points a game, Tottenham Hotspur 1.50 -- nothing between them. -0.30 points a game is the venue form gap, in Tottenham Hotspur's favour: Nottingham Forest takes 1.00 a game at home over the last two seasons, Tottenham Hotspur 1.30 away. Nottingham Forest scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Tottenham Hotspur scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. The shapes mesh: Tottenham Hotspur's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Nottingham Forest is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 57% of their games, both teams scoring in 52%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 48%. On the record this leans a goals match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Tottenham Hotspur lands the first blow more often (17 of 40 to 12 of 40); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Tottenham Hotspur's hands -- ahead without winning in 8 of 40; Nottingham Forest finds its goals latest of all -- 13 of its 50 after the 75th; Tottenham Hotspur finds its goals latest of all -- 13 of its 48 after the 75th, and Nottingham Forest concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Nottingham Forest 1.08 goals expected, Tottenham Hotspur 1.26, from two seasons of scoring rates (20 home matches and 20 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Nottingham Forest 3.17 (32%), the draw 3.58 (28%), Tottenham Hotspur 2.46 (41%). The market's averages: 2.30, 3.30 and 2.80. The widest gap is on Nottingham Forest: the market is shorter (2.30) than our 3.17 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 2.41 (41%), under 2.5 1.71 (59%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.91, under 2.5 1.85. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 2.11 (47%), no 1.90 (53%). The market's averages: yes 1.64, no 2.15. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Nottingham Forest's own 20 home matches read, one appeared in 8 (40%). In Tottenham Hotspur's own 20 away matches read, 11 (55%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 48% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/epl/2026-09-05/nottingham-forest-v-tottenham-hotspur/halftime/ Built 2026-09-05T05:39:10+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.