# Everton v Manchester United — the Match Wizard Premier League, game week 3 — Sunday, 6 September 2026, kick-off 14:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Everton: 40 league matches in the bank, 2 from this season and the rest from last season. Manchester United: 40 league matches in the bank, 2 from this season and the rest from last season. Look and learn: it is early in the season, so nearly everything counted here was earned last season -- by squads and dugouts a summer window may have reshaped. Treat the first five weeks as pointers while the new shapes settle, not proof. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **The table makes Manchester United the bigger side: 3rd against 13th of 20 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Everton takes 0.92 points a game, Manchester United 2.07 -- the block form is Manchester United's.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Everton -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 7th of 20 after 2 games, with 4 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 13th of 20 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (7th to 13th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 2 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the top block (1st to 6th). Against that block it has won 3, drew 3, lost 7 of 13 -- 12 points of 39. At home against them: won 0 of 6. Away against them: won 3 of 7. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 3, drew 3, lost 7 of 13 (0.92 a game); against the middle block won 5, drew 3, lost 4 of 12 (1.50 a game); against the bottom block won 6, drew 5, lost 4 of 15 (1.53 a game). ### Manchester United -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 11th of 20 after 2 games, with 3 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 3rd of 20 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the top block (1st to 6th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 2 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (7th to 13th). Against that block it has won 9, drew 2, lost 3 of 14 -- 29 points of 42. At home against them: won 6 of 7. Away against them: won 3 of 7. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 5, drew 2, lost 3 of 10 (1.70 a game); against the middle block won 9, drew 2, lost 3 of 14 (2.07 a game); against the bottom block won 6, drew 7, lost 1 of 14 (1.79 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 1 of 2 (1.50 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **-0.15 points a game is the venue form gap, in Manchester United's favour: Everton takes 1.30 a game at home over the last two seasons, Manchester United 1.45 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Everton -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 1, drew 0, lost 0 of 1, scoring 2 and conceding 0. Last season at home: won 6, drew 5, lost 8 of 19, scoring 26 and conceding 27 -- 1.21 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: drew with AFC Bournemouth 1-1 away; beat Crystal Palace 2-0 at home; lost to Tottenham Hotspur 0-1 away; lost to Sunderland 1-3 at home; drew with Crystal Palace 2-2 away. The last 3 of these are from last season. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 39 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by David Moyes. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Manchester United -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 0, drew 0, lost 1 of 1, scoring 0 and conceding 2. Last season away: won 7, drew 8, lost 4 of 19, scoring 30 and conceding 26 -- 1.53 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Ipswich Town 5-2 at home; lost to Hull City 0-2 away; beat Brighton & Hove Albion 3-0 away; beat Nottingham Forest 3-2 at home; drew with Sunderland 0-0 away. The last 3 of these are from last season. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 39 matches with one recorded (20, 19 apiece), most recently Michael Carrick with 19. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Everton scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Manchester United scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Everton's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Manchester United is softest.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Everton scores most in the 76-90+ band (16 of 50); Everton concedes most in the 76-90+ band (15 of 51); Manchester United scores most in the 76-90+ band (17 of 74); Manchester United concedes most in the 76-90+ band (16 of 54). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Everton -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 40 league matches; at home, 1.4 for and 1.4 against over 20. - **When it scores:** Of 50 scored across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 50 (32%). - **When it concedes:** Of 51 conceded across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 15. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 15 of 51 (29%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 18 of its 40 read -- then won 12, drew 4, lost 2; conceded first in 20 -- pulled back 2 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 11 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 9 of its 40 read, winning 8 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 7. ### Manchester United -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.9 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 40 league matches; away, 1.5 for and 1.4 against over 20. - **When it scores:** Of 74 scored across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 15; 46-60: 14; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 74 (23%). - **When it concedes:** Of 54 conceded across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 54 (30%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 24 of its 40 read -- then won 17, drew 7, lost 0; conceded first in 15 -- pulled back 4 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 18 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 13 of its 40 read, winning 13 of them; trailed by two in 4, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 8. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 52% of their games, both teams scoring in 60%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 40%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Everton's numbers over its games, Manchester United's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Everton's own 20 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (55%). In Manchester United's own 20 away matches read, 5 (25%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 40% of games. ### Everton -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 17 of its own 40 (42%); over 1.5 in 31 (78%); over 3.5 in 8 (20%). At home: over 2.5 in 10 of its 20 (50%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 20 of its own 40 (50%). At home: 10 of its 20 (50%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 12 of its own 40 (30%); failed to score in 10 (25%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Everton's own 40 matches read: Everton or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 17 (42%). Everton itself held the lead in 9, winning 8. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 11 of 20. ### Manchester United -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 25 of its own 40 (62%); over 1.5 in 34 (85%); over 3.5 in 15 (38%). Away: over 2.5 in 13 of its 20 (65%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 28 of its own 40 (70%). Away: 14 of its 20 (70%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 8 of its own 40 (20%); failed to score in 5 (12%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Manchester United's own 40 matches read: Manchester United or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 17 (42%). Manchester United itself held the lead in 13, winning 13. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 5 of 20. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **The table makes Manchester United the bigger side: 3rd against 13th of 20 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Everton takes 0.92 points a game, Manchester United 2.07 -- the block form is Manchester United's. -0.15 points a game is the venue form gap, in Manchester United's favour: Everton takes 1.30 a game at home over the last two seasons, Manchester United 1.45 away. Everton scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Manchester United scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Everton's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Manchester United is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 52% of their games, both teams scoring in 60%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 40%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Manchester United lands the first blow more often (24 of 40 to 18 of 40); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Manchester United's -- two goals clear in 13 of 40, against 9 of 40; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Everton's hands -- ahead without winning in 7 of 40; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Manchester United's hands -- ahead without winning in 8 of 40; Everton finds its goals latest of all -- 16 of its 50 after the 75th, and Manchester United concedes most in that same spell; Manchester United finds its goals latest of all -- 17 of its 74 after the 75th, and Everton concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Everton 1.34 goals expected, Manchester United 1.55, from two seasons of scoring rates (20 home matches and 20 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Everton 3.04 (33%), the draw 4.05 (25%), Manchester United 2.36 (42%). The market's averages: 3.25, 3.65 and 2.13. All three outcomes sit close to our numbers -- no argument either way. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 1.81 (55%), under 2.5 2.23 (45%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.67, under 2.5 2.15. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 1.72 (58%), no 2.39 (42%). The market's averages: yes 1.56, no 2.30. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Everton's own 20 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (55%). In Manchester United's own 20 away matches read, 5 (25%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 40% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/epl/2026-09-06/everton-v-manchester-united/halftime/ Built 2026-09-05T05:40:17+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.