# Manchester United v Manchester City — the Match Wizard Premier League, game week 4 — Sunday, 13 September 2026, kick-off 16:30 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Manchester United: 41 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season. Manchester City: 41 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season. Look and learn: it is early in the season, so nearly everything counted here was earned last season -- by squads and dugouts a summer window may have reshaped. Treat the first five weeks as pointers while the new shapes settle, not proof. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Manchester United and Manchester City finished near neighbours last season -- 3rd and 2nd of 20 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Manchester United takes 1.70 points a game, Manchester City 1.82 -- nothing between them.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Manchester United -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 13th of 20 after 3 games, with 4 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 3rd of 20 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the top block (1st to 6th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 3 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the top block (1st to 6th). Against that block it has won 5, drew 2, lost 3 of 10 -- 17 points of 30. At home against them: won 3 of 5. Away against them: won 2 of 5. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 5, drew 2, lost 3 of 10 (1.70 a game); against the middle block won 9, drew 3, lost 3 of 15 (2.00 a game); against the bottom block won 6, drew 7, lost 1 of 14 (1.79 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 1 of 2 (1.50 a game). ### Manchester City -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 2nd of 20 after 3 games, with 9 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 2nd of 20 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the top block (1st to 6th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 3 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the top block (1st to 6th). Against that block it has won 6, drew 2, lost 3 of 11 -- 20 points of 33. At home against them: won 5 of 6. Away against them: won 1 of 5. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 6, drew 2, lost 3 of 11 (1.82 a game); against the middle block won 8, drew 4, lost 2 of 14 (2.00 a game); against the bottom block won 11, drew 3, lost 1 of 15 (2.40 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 0 of 1 (3.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+0.45 points a game is the venue form gap, in Manchester United's favour: Manchester United takes 2.25 a game at home over the last two seasons, Manchester City 1.80 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Manchester United -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 1, drew 0, lost 0 of 1, scoring 5 and conceding 2. Last season at home: won 13, drew 3, lost 3 of 19, scoring 39 and conceding 24 -- 2.21 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: drew with Everton 2-2 away; beat Ipswich Town 5-2 at home; lost to Hull City 0-2 away; beat Brighton & Hove Albion 3-0 away; beat Nottingham Forest 3-2 at home. The last 2 of these are from last season. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 40 matches with one recorded (20, 20 apiece), most recently Michael Carrick with 20. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Manchester City -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 1, drew 0, lost 0 of 1, scoring 4 and conceding 1. Last season away: won 9, drew 6, lost 4 of 19, scoring 32 and conceding 21 -- 1.74 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Coventry City 1-0 at home; beat Crystal Palace 4-1 away; beat AFC Bournemouth 2-1 at home; lost to Aston Villa 1-2 at home; drew with AFC Bournemouth 1-1 away. The last 2 of these are from last season. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 3 different managers took its 41 matches with one recorded (37, 3, 1 apiece), most recently Enzo Maresca with 3. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Manchester United scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Manchester City scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 61-75.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Manchester United scores most in the 76-90+ band (18 of 76); Manchester United concedes most in the 76-90+ band (18 of 56); Manchester City scores most in the 31-45+ band (22 of 84); Manchester City concedes most in the 61-75 band (11 of 37). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Manchester United -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.9 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 41 league matches; at home, 2.2 for and 1.3 against over 20. - **When it scores:** Of 76 scored across its own 41 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 15; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 18. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 18 of 76 (24%). - **When it concedes:** Of 56 conceded across its own 41 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 18. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 18 of 56 (32%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 25 of its 41 read -- then won 17, drew 8, lost 0; conceded first in 15 -- pulled back 4 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 18 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 13 of its 41 read, winning 13 of them; trailed by two in 4, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 9. ### Manchester City -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 2.0 and concedes 0.9 a game over its last 41 league matches; away, 1.8 for and 1.1 against over 20. - **When it scores:** Of 84 scored across its own 41 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 22; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 14; 76-90+: 16. - **When it concedes:** Of 37 conceded across its own 41 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 0; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 7. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 33 of its 41 read -- then won 24, drew 7, lost 2; conceded first in 7 -- pulled back 2 wins and 1 draw from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 18 of its 41 read, winning 17 of them; trailed by two in 3, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 9. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 63% of their games, both teams scoring in 61%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 50%. On the record this leans a goals match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Manchester United's numbers over its games, Manchester City's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Manchester United's own 20 home matches read, one appeared in 12 (60%). In Manchester City's own 20 away matches read, 8 (40%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 50% of games. ### Manchester United -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 26 of its own 41 (63%); over 1.5 in 35 (85%); over 3.5 in 16 (39%). At home: over 2.5 in 12 of its 20 (60%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 29 of its own 41 (71%). At home: 14 of its 20 (70%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 8 of its own 41 (20%); failed to score in 5 (12%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Manchester United's own 41 matches read: Manchester United or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 17 (41%). Manchester United itself held the lead in 13, winning 13. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 12 of 20. ### Manchester City -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 26 of its own 41 (63%); over 1.5 in 35 (85%); over 3.5 in 9 (22%). Away: over 2.5 in 11 of its 20 (55%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 21 of its own 41 (51%). Away: 11 of its 20 (55%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 17 of its own 41 (41%); failed to score in 4 (10%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Manchester City's own 41 matches read: Manchester City or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 21 (51%). Manchester City itself held the lead in 18, winning 17. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 8 of 20. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Manchester United and Manchester City finished near neighbours last season -- 3rd and 2nd of 20 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Manchester United takes 1.70 points a game, Manchester City 1.82 -- nothing between them. +0.45 points a game is the venue form gap, in Manchester United's favour: Manchester United takes 2.25 a game at home over the last two seasons, Manchester City 1.80 away. Manchester United scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Manchester City scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 61-75. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 63% of their games, both teams scoring in 61%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 50%. On the record this leans a goals match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Manchester City lands the first blow more often (33 of 41 to 25 of 41); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Manchester City's -- two goals clear in 18 of 41, against 13 of 41; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Manchester United's hands -- ahead without winning in 9 of 41; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Manchester City's hands -- ahead without winning in 9 of 41; Manchester United finds its goals latest of all -- 18 of its 76 after the 75th. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Manchester United 1.61 goals expected, Manchester City 1.75, from two seasons of scoring rates (20 home matches and 20 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Manchester United 2.80 (36%), the draw 4.39 (23%), Manchester City 2.41 (42%). The market's averages: 3.10, 3.75 and 2.15. The widest gap is on the draw: the market is shorter (3.75) than our 4.39 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 1.54 (65%), under 2.5 2.86 (35%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.53, under 2.5 2.44. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 1.52 (66%), no 2.94 (34%). The market's averages: yes 1.44, no 2.75. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Manchester United's own 20 home matches read, one appeared in 12 (60%). In Manchester City's own 20 away matches read, 8 (40%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 50% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/epl/2026-09-13/manchester-united-v-manchester-city/halftime/ Built 2026-09-12T20:07:23+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.