# Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest — the Match Wizard Premier League, game week 6 — Sunday, 11 October 2026, kick-off 14:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Crystal Palace: 43 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season. Nottingham Forest: 43 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest finished near neighbours last season -- 15th and 16th of 20 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Crystal Palace takes 1.54 points a game, Nottingham Forest 1.64 -- nothing between them.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Crystal Palace -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 16th of 20 after 5 games, with 4 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 15th of 20 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the bottom block (14th to 20th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 5 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the bottom block (14th to 20th). Against that block it has won 5, drew 5, lost 3 of 13 -- 20 points of 39. At home against them: won 1 of 6. Away against them: won 4 of 7. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 2, lost 9 of 13 (0.62 a game); against the middle block won 5, drew 6, lost 5 of 16 (1.31 a game); against the bottom block won 5, drew 5, lost 3 of 13 (1.54 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 0, lost 1 of 1 (0.00 a game). ### Nottingham Forest -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 13th of 20 after 5 games, with 5 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 16th of 20 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the bottom block (14th to 20th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 5 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the bottom block (14th to 20th). Against that block it has won 6, drew 5, lost 3 of 14 -- 23 points of 42. At home against them: won 3 of 8. Away against them: won 3 of 6. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 6, lost 6 of 14 (0.86 a game); against the middle block won 4, drew 2, lost 8 of 14 (1.00 a game); against the bottom block won 6, drew 5, lost 3 of 14 (1.64 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 0, lost 1 of 1 (0.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **-0.33 points a game is the venue form gap, in Nottingham Forest's favour: Crystal Palace takes 1.00 a game at home over the last two seasons, Nottingham Forest 1.33 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Crystal Palace -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 0, drew 0, lost 2 of 2, scoring 3 and conceding 7. Last season at home: won 4, drew 9, lost 6 of 19, scoring 19 and conceding 23 -- 1.11 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: drew with Leeds United 0-0 away; lost to Ipswich Town 2-3 at home; beat Fulham 3-2 away; lost to Manchester City 1-4 at home; lost to Everton 0-2 away. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 43 matches with one recorded (38, 5 apiece), most recently Pierre Sage with 5. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Nottingham Forest -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 1, drew 1, lost 0 of 2, scoring 4 and conceding 3. Last season away: won 7, drew 3, lost 9 of 19, scoring 28 and conceding 28 -- 1.26 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Coventry City 0-1 at home; beat Aston Villa 2-1 away; drew with Tottenham Hotspur 0-0 at home; drew with Liverpool 2-2 away; lost to Leeds United 0-1 at home. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 5 different managers took its 43 matches with one recorded (18, 12, 5, 5, 3 apiece), most recently Oliver Glasner with 5. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Crystal Palace scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Nottingham Forest scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Crystal Palace scores most in the 31-45+ band (13 of 47); Crystal Palace concedes most in the 31-45+ band (24 of 62); Nottingham Forest scores most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 52); Nottingham Forest concedes most in the 76-90+ band (17 of 56). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Crystal Palace -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.1 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 43 league matches; at home, 1.0 for and 1.4 against over 21. - **When it scores:** Of 47 scored across its own 43 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 4; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 12. - **When it concedes:** Of 62 conceded across its own 43 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 2; 31-45+: 24; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 14. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 18 of its 43 read -- then won 9, drew 3, lost 6; conceded first in 18 -- pulled back 3 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 12 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 5 of its 43 read, winning 4 of them; trailed by two in 11, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 9. ### Nottingham Forest -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 43 league matches; away, 1.5 for and 1.5 against over 21. - **When it scores:** Of 52 scored across its own 43 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 3; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 52 (27%). - **When it concedes:** Of 56 conceded across its own 43 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 4; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 56 (30%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 13 of its 43 read -- then won 9, drew 4, lost 0; conceded first in 26 -- pulled back 3 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 14 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 9 of its 43 read, winning 9 of them; trailed by two in 11, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 5. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 53% of their games, both teams scoring in 50%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 45%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Crystal Palace's numbers over its games, Nottingham Forest's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Crystal Palace's own 21 home matches read, one appeared in 7 (33%). In Nottingham Forest's own 21 away matches read, 12 (57%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 45% of games. ### Crystal Palace -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 24 of its own 43 (56%); over 1.5 in 31 (72%); over 3.5 in 11 (26%). At home: over 2.5 in 11 of its 21 (52%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 23 of its own 43 (53%). At home: 12 of its 21 (57%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 13 of its own 43 (30%); failed to score in 14 (33%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Crystal Palace's own 43 matches read: Crystal Palace or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 16 (37%). Crystal Palace itself held the lead in 5, winning 4. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 7 of 21. ### Nottingham Forest -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 22 of its own 43 (51%); over 1.5 in 33 (77%); over 3.5 in 11 (26%). Away: over 2.5 in 14 of its 21 (67%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 20 of its own 43 (47%). Away: 11 of its 21 (52%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 10 of its own 43 (23%); failed to score in 17 (40%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Nottingham Forest's own 43 matches read: Nottingham Forest or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 20 (47%). Nottingham Forest itself held the lead in 9, winning 9. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 12 of 21. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest finished near neighbours last season -- 15th and 16th of 20 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Crystal Palace takes 1.54 points a game, Nottingham Forest 1.64 -- nothing between them. -0.33 points a game is the venue form gap, in Nottingham Forest's favour: Crystal Palace takes 1.00 a game at home over the last two seasons, Nottingham Forest 1.33 away. Crystal Palace scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Nottingham Forest scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 53% of their games, both teams scoring in 50%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 45%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Crystal Palace lands the first blow more often (18 of 43 to 13 of 43); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Nottingham Forest's -- two goals clear in 9 of 43, against 5 of 43; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Crystal Palace's hands -- ahead without winning in 9 of 43; Nottingham Forest finds its goals latest of all -- 14 of its 52 after the 75th. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Crystal Palace 1.12 goals expected, Nottingham Forest 1.65, from two seasons of scoring rates (21 home matches and 21 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Crystal Palace 3.85 (26%), the draw 4.09 (24%), Nottingham Forest 2.02 (50%). The market's averages: 2.60, 3.40 and 2.59. The widest gap is on Crystal Palace: the market is shorter (2.60) than our 3.85 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 1.91 (52%), under 2.5 2.10 (48%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.94, under 2.5 1.84. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 1.83 (55%), no 2.20 (45%). The market's averages: yes 1.65, no 2.10. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Crystal Palace's own 21 home matches read, one appeared in 7 (33%). In Nottingham Forest's own 21 away matches read, 12 (57%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 45% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/epl/2026-10-11/crystal-palace-v-nottingham-forest/halftime/ Built 2026-10-10T13:36:10+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.