# Hull City v Everton — the Match Wizard Premier League, game week 6 — Sunday, 11 October 2026, kick-off 14:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Hull City: 50 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season in the Championship. Everton: 43 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Hull City is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Hull City -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 8th of 20 after 5 games, with 8 points -- too few games yet to mean much. It was not in this division last season -- it came up from the Championship, where it finished 6th of 24. - **Its block:** New to the division this season, so it takes no block from last season's final table. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (7th to 13th). Against that block it has won 6, drew 5, lost 6 of 17 -- 23 points of 51. At home against them: won 3 of 8. Away against them: won 3 of 9. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 10, drew 3, lost 5 of 18 (1.83 a game); against the middle block won 6, drew 5, lost 6 of 17 (1.35 a game); against the bottom block won 7, drew 4, lost 3 of 14 (1.79 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 0 of 1 (3.00 a game). ### Everton -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 5th of 20 after 5 games, with 9 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 13th of 20 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (7th to 13th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 5 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side new to its division. Against that block it has won 1, drew 0, lost 0 of 1. At home against them: won 1 of 1. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 3, drew 4, lost 7 of 14 (0.93 a game); against the middle block won 5, drew 3, lost 4 of 12 (1.50 a game); against the bottom block won 6, drew 6, lost 4 of 16 (1.50 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 0 of 1 (3.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+0.39 points a game is the venue form gap, in Hull City's favour: Hull City takes 1.72 a game at home over the last two seasons, Everton 1.33 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Hull City -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 1, drew 1, lost 0 of 2, scoring 2 and conceding 0. Last season at home in the Championship: won 11, drew 6, lost 6 of 23, scoring 33 and conceding 29 -- 1.70 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Newcastle United 1-2 away; drew with Chelsea 2-2 away; drew with Aston Villa 0-0 at home; beat Coventry City 1-0 away; beat Manchester United 2-0 at home. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 36 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Sergej Jakirovic. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Everton -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 0, drew 2, lost 0 of 2, scoring 1 and conceding 1. Last season away: won 7, drew 5, lost 7 of 19, scoring 21 and conceding 23 -- 1.37 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Ipswich Town 1-0 at home; drew with Tottenham Hotspur 0-0 away; drew with Manchester United 2-2 at home; drew with AFC Bournemouth 1-1 away; beat Crystal Palace 2-0 at home. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 42 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by David Moyes. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Hull City scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Everton scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Everton's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Hull City is softest.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Hull City scores most in the 31-45+ band (17 of 74); Hull City concedes most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 61); Everton scores most in the 76-90+ band (18 of 53); Everton concedes most in the 76-90+ band (16 of 53). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Hull City -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.5 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.4 for and 1.2 against over 25. - **When it scores:** Of 74 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 15; 31-45+: 17; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 12. - **When it concedes:** Of 61 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 61 (23%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 28 of its 50 read -- then won 20, drew 4, lost 4; conceded first in 18 -- pulled back 4 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 17 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 14 of its 50 read, winning 14 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 9. ### Everton -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 43 league matches; away, 1.0 for and 1.1 against over 21. - **When it scores:** Of 53 scored across its own 43 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 18. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 18 of 53 (34%). - **When it concedes:** Of 53 conceded across its own 43 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 53 (30%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 19 of its 43 read -- then won 13, drew 4, lost 2; conceded first in 21 -- pulled back 2 wins and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 12 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 9 of its 43 read, winning 8 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 7. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 50% of their games, both teams scoring in 54%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 40%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Hull City's numbers over its games, Everton's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Hull City's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 13 (52%). In Everton's own 21 away matches read, 6 (29%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 40% of games. ### Hull City -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 29 of its own 50 (58%); over 1.5 in 37 (74%); over 3.5 in 16 (32%). At home: over 2.5 in 12 of its 25 (48%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 30 of its own 50 (60%). At home: 14 of its 25 (56%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 16 of its own 50 (32%); failed to score in 8 (16%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Hull City's own 50 matches read: Hull City or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 22 (44%). Hull City itself held the lead in 14, winning 14. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 13 of 25. ### Everton -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 18 of its own 43 (42%); over 1.5 in 32 (74%); over 3.5 in 9 (21%). Away: over 2.5 in 7 of its 21 (33%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 21 of its own 43 (49%). Away: 10 of its 21 (48%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 14 of its own 43 (33%); failed to score in 11 (26%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Everton's own 43 matches read: Everton or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 17 (40%). Everton itself held the lead in 9, winning 8. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 6 of 21. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Hull City is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. +0.39 points a game is the venue form gap, in Hull City's favour: Hull City takes 1.72 a game at home over the last two seasons, Everton 1.33 away. Hull City scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Everton scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Everton's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Hull City is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 50% of their games, both teams scoring in 54%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 40%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Hull City lands the first blow more often (28 of 50 to 19 of 43); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Hull City's hands -- ahead without winning in 9 of 50; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Everton's hands -- ahead without winning in 7 of 43; Everton finds its goals latest of all -- 18 of its 53 after the 75th, and Hull City concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Hull City 1.15 goals expected, Everton 1.04, from two seasons of scoring rates (25 home matches and 21 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: Hull City's figures include last season in the Championship, where goals came against different company. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Hull City 2.63 (38%), the draw 3.43 (29%), Everton 3.05 (33%). The market's averages: 3.53, 3.38 and 2.10. The widest gap is on Hull City: the market offers 3.53 against our 2.63. If our figures are right that is value; nothing proves they are. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 2.67 (37%), under 2.5 1.60 (63%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.92, under 2.5 1.80. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 2.27 (44%), no 1.79 (56%). The market's averages: yes 1.76, no 1.95. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Hull City's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 13 (52%). In Everton's own 21 away matches read, 6 (29%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 40% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/epl/2026-10-11/hull-city-v-everton/halftime/ Built 2026-10-10T13:36:11+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.