# Newcastle United v Aston Villa — the Match Wizard Premier League, game week 7 — Saturday, 17 October 2026, kick-off 17:30 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Newcastle United: 44 league matches in the bank, 6 from this season and the rest from last season. Aston Villa: 44 league matches in the bank, 6 from this season and the rest from last season. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **The table makes Aston Villa the bigger side: 4th against 12th of 20 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Newcastle United takes 0.71 points a game, Aston Villa 1.38 -- the block form is Aston Villa's.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Newcastle United -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 11th of 20 after 6 games, with 8 points. Last season it finished 12th of 20 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (7th to 13th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 6 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the top block (1st to 6th). Against that block it has won 2, drew 4, lost 8 of 14 -- 10 points of 42. At home against them: won 2 of 8. Away against them: won 0 of 6. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 4, lost 8 of 14 (0.71 a game); against the middle block won 4, drew 1, lost 7 of 12 (1.08 a game); against the bottom block won 9, drew 4, lost 3 of 16 (1.94 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 1 of 2 (1.50 a game). ### Aston Villa -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 16th of 20 after 6 games, with 5 points. Last season it finished 4th of 20 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the top block (1st to 6th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 6 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (7th to 13th). Against that block it has won 6, drew 4, lost 6 of 16 -- 22 points of 48. At home against them: won 3 of 8. Away against them: won 3 of 8. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 6, drew 1, lost 4 of 11 (1.73 a game); against the middle block won 6, drew 4, lost 6 of 16 (1.38 a game); against the bottom block won 8, drew 4, lost 4 of 16 (1.75 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 1, lost 0 of 1 (1.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+0.27 points a game is the venue form gap, in Newcastle United's favour: Newcastle United takes 1.68 a game at home over the last two seasons, Aston Villa 1.41 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Newcastle United -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 1, drew 2, lost 0 of 3, scoring 6 and conceding 5. Last season at home: won 10, drew 2, lost 7 of 19, scoring 36 and conceding 30 -- 1.68 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Coventry City 1-4 away; beat Hull City 2-1 at home; lost to Leeds United 1-4 away; drew with AFC Bournemouth 2-2 at home; beat Tottenham Hotspur 2-0 away. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 44 matches with one recorded (38, 6 apiece), most recently Matthias Jaissle with 6. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Aston Villa -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 1, drew 1, lost 1 of 3, scoring 3 and conceding 6. Last season away: won 7, drew 6, lost 6 of 19, scoring 24 and conceding 27 -- 1.42 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: drew with Brentford 2-2 at home; beat Tottenham Hotspur 3-2 away; lost to Nottingham Forest 1-2 at home; drew with Hull City 0-0 away; lost to Arsenal 0-1 at home. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 44 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Unai Emery Etxegoien. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Newcastle United scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Aston Villa scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Newcastle United's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Aston Villa is softest.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Newcastle United scores most in the 76-90+ band (15 of 63); Newcastle United concedes most in the 76-90+ band (24 of 68); Aston Villa scores most in the 76-90+ band (16 of 62); Aston Villa concedes most in the 76-90+ band (13 of 60). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Newcastle United -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 44 league matches; at home, 1.9 for and 1.6 against over 22. - **When it scores:** Of 63 scored across its own 44 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 15. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 15 of 63 (24%). - **When it concedes:** Of 68 conceded across its own 44 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 17; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 24. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 24 of 68 (35%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 26 of its 44 read -- then won 15, drew 4, lost 7; conceded first in 14 -- pulled back 1 win and 1 draw from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 4 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 10 of its 44 read, winning 9 of them; trailed by two in 9, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 11. ### Aston Villa -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 44 league matches; away, 1.2 for and 1.5 against over 22. - **When it scores:** Of 62 scored across its own 44 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 62 (26%). - **When it concedes:** Of 60 conceded across its own 44 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 13. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 13 of 60 (22%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 17 of its 44 read -- then won 13, drew 3, lost 1; conceded first in 23 -- pulled back 7 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 24 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 10 of its 44 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 9, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 6. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 60% of their games, both teams scoring in 62%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 41%. On the record this leans a goals match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Newcastle United's numbers over its games, Aston Villa's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Newcastle United's own 22 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (45%). In Aston Villa's own 22 away matches read, 8 (36%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 41% of games. ### Newcastle United -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 29 of its own 44 (66%); over 1.5 in 35 (80%); over 3.5 in 17 (39%). At home: over 2.5 in 18 of its 22 (82%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 30 of its own 44 (68%). At home: 18 of its 22 (82%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 9 of its own 44 (20%); failed to score in 9 (20%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Newcastle United's own 44 matches read: Newcastle United or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 19 (43%). Newcastle United itself held the lead in 10, winning 9. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 10 of 22. ### Aston Villa -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 24 of its own 44 (55%); over 1.5 in 32 (73%); over 3.5 in 14 (32%). Away: over 2.5 in 11 of its 22 (50%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 25 of its own 44 (57%). Away: 13 of its 22 (59%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 10 of its own 44 (23%); failed to score in 13 (30%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Aston Villa's own 44 matches read: Aston Villa or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 18 (41%). Aston Villa itself held the lead in 10, winning 10. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 8 of 22. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **The table makes Aston Villa the bigger side: 4th against 12th of 20 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Newcastle United takes 0.71 points a game, Aston Villa 1.38 -- the block form is Aston Villa's. +0.27 points a game is the venue form gap, in Newcastle United's favour: Newcastle United takes 1.68 a game at home over the last two seasons, Aston Villa 1.41 away. Newcastle United scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Aston Villa scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Newcastle United's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Aston Villa is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 60% of their games, both teams scoring in 62%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 41%. On the record this leans a goals match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Newcastle United lands the first blow more often (26 of 44 to 17 of 44); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Newcastle United's hands -- ahead without winning in 11 of 44; Newcastle United finds its goals latest of all -- 15 of its 63 after the 75th, and Aston Villa concedes most in that same spell; Aston Villa finds its goals latest of all -- 16 of its 62 after the 75th, and Newcastle United concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Newcastle United 1.80 goals expected, Aston Villa 1.52, from two seasons of scoring rates (22 home matches and 22 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Newcastle United 2.24 (45%), the draw 4.40 (23%), Aston Villa 3.06 (33%). The market's averages: 2.30, 3.65 and 2.95. The widest gap is on the draw: the market is shorter (3.65) than our 4.40 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 1.55 (64%), under 2.5 2.81 (36%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.67, under 2.5 2.40. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 1.53 (65%), no 2.87 (35%). The market's averages: yes 1.51, no 2.42. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Newcastle United's own 22 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (45%). In Aston Villa's own 22 away matches read, 8 (36%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 41% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/epl/2026-10-17/newcastle-united-v-aston-villa/halftime/ Built 2026-10-16T06:06:05+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.