# Brighton & Hove Albion v Crystal Palace — the Match Wizard Premier League, game week 7 — Sunday, 18 October 2026, kick-off 14:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Brighton & Hove Albion: 44 league matches in the bank, 6 from this season and the rest from last season. Crystal Palace: 44 league matches in the bank, 6 from this season and the rest from last season. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **The table makes Brighton & Hove Albion the bigger side: 8th against 15th of 20 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Brighton & Hove Albion takes 1.67 points a game, Crystal Palace 1.31 -- the block form is Brighton & Hove Albion's.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Brighton & Hove Albion -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 3rd of 20 after 6 games, with 13 points. Last season it finished 8th of 20 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (7th to 13th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 6 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the bottom block (14th to 20th). Against that block it has won 6, drew 7, lost 2 of 15 -- 25 points of 45. At home against them: won 4 of 8. Away against them: won 2 of 7. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 4, drew 2, lost 8 of 14 (1.00 a game); against the middle block won 7, drew 3, lost 4 of 14 (1.71 a game); against the bottom block won 6, drew 7, lost 2 of 15 (1.67 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 0 of 1 (3.00 a game). ### Crystal Palace -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 12th of 20 after 6 games, with 7 points. Last season it finished 15th of 20 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the bottom block (14th to 20th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 6 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (7th to 13th). Against that block it has won 5, drew 6, lost 5 of 16 -- 21 points of 48. At home against them: won 2 of 7. Away against them: won 3 of 9. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 2, lost 9 of 13 (0.62 a game); against the middle block won 5, drew 6, lost 5 of 16 (1.31 a game); against the bottom block won 6, drew 5, lost 3 of 14 (1.64 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 0, lost 1 of 1 (0.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+0.55 points a game is the venue form gap, in Brighton & Hove Albion's favour: Brighton & Hove Albion takes 1.82 a game at home over the last two seasons, Crystal Palace 1.27 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Brighton & Hove Albion -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 2, drew 1, lost 0 of 3, scoring 8 and conceding 1. Last season at home: won 9, drew 6, lost 4 of 19, scoring 30 and conceding 20 -- 1.74 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Sunderland 2-0 away; beat Arsenal 3-0 at home; beat Coventry City 5-0 away; drew with Leeds United 1-1 at home; lost to Chelsea 3-4 away. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 44 matches with one recorded (43, 1 apiece), most recently Fabian Hürzeler with 43. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Crystal Palace -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 1, drew 1, lost 1 of 3, scoring 3 and conceding 4. Last season away: won 7, drew 3, lost 9 of 19, scoring 22 and conceding 28 -- 1.26 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Nottingham Forest 3-1 at home; drew with Leeds United 0-0 away; lost to Ipswich Town 2-3 at home; beat Fulham 3-2 away; lost to Manchester City 1-4 at home. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 44 matches with one recorded (38, 6 apiece), most recently Pierre Sage with 6. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Brighton & Hove Albion scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Crystal Palace scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. The shapes mesh: Crystal Palace's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Brighton & Hove Albion is softest.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Brighton & Hove Albion scores most in the 76-90+ band (20 of 70); Brighton & Hove Albion concedes most in the 31-45+ band (12 of 51); Crystal Palace scores most in the 31-45+ band (15 of 50); Crystal Palace concedes most in the 31-45+ band (24 of 63). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Brighton & Hove Albion -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.6 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 44 league matches; at home, 1.7 for and 1.0 against over 22. - **When it scores:** Of 70 scored across its own 44 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 20. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 20 of 70 (29%). - **When it concedes:** Of 51 conceded across its own 44 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 11. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 20 of its 44 read -- then won 15, drew 3, lost 2; conceded first in 22 -- pulled back 3 wins and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 16 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 14 of its 44 read, winning 12 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 5. ### Crystal Palace -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.1 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 44 league matches; away, 1.1 for and 1.5 against over 22. - **When it scores:** Of 50 scored across its own 44 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 15; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 12. - **When it concedes:** Of 63 conceded across its own 44 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 2; 31-45+: 24; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 14. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 18 of its 44 read -- then won 9, drew 3, lost 6; conceded first in 19 -- pulled back 4 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 15 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 6 of its 44 read, winning 5 of them; trailed by two in 11, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 9. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 55% of their games, both teams scoring in 53%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 41%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Brighton & Hove Albion's numbers over its games, Crystal Palace's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Brighton & Hove Albion's own 22 home matches read, one appeared in 9 (41%). In Crystal Palace's own 22 away matches read, 9 (41%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 41% of games. ### Brighton & Hove Albion -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 23 of its own 44 (52%); over 1.5 in 37 (84%); over 3.5 in 10 (23%). At home: over 2.5 in 13 of its 22 (59%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 23 of its own 44 (52%). At home: 12 of its 22 (55%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 14 of its own 44 (32%); failed to score in 9 (20%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Brighton & Hove Albion's own 44 matches read: Brighton & Hove Albion or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 21 (48%). Brighton & Hove Albion itself held the lead in 14, winning 12. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 9 of 22. ### Crystal Palace -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 25 of its own 44 (57%); over 1.5 in 32 (73%); over 3.5 in 12 (27%). Away: over 2.5 in 13 of its 22 (59%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 24 of its own 44 (55%). Away: 11 of its 22 (50%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 13 of its own 44 (30%); failed to score in 14 (32%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Crystal Palace's own 44 matches read: Crystal Palace or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 17 (39%). Crystal Palace itself held the lead in 6, winning 5. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 9 of 22. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **The table makes Brighton & Hove Albion the bigger side: 8th against 15th of 20 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Brighton & Hove Albion takes 1.67 points a game, Crystal Palace 1.31 -- the block form is Brighton & Hove Albion's. +0.55 points a game is the venue form gap, in Brighton & Hove Albion's favour: Brighton & Hove Albion takes 1.82 a game at home over the last two seasons, Crystal Palace 1.27 away. Brighton & Hove Albion scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Crystal Palace scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. The shapes mesh: Crystal Palace's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Brighton & Hove Albion is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 55% of their games, both teams scoring in 53%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 41%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (20 of 44 and 18 of 44); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Brighton & Hove Albion's -- two goals clear in 14 of 44, against 6 of 44; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Crystal Palace's hands -- ahead without winning in 9 of 44; Brighton & Hove Albion finds its goals latest of all -- 20 of its 70 after the 75th. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Brighton & Hove Albion 1.62 goals expected, Crystal Palace 0.96, from two seasons of scoring rates (22 home matches and 22 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Brighton & Hove Albion 1.89 (53%), the draw 4.03 (25%), Crystal Palace 4.50 (22%). The market's averages: 1.53, 4.25 and 5.20. The widest gap is on Brighton & Hove Albion: the market is shorter (1.53) than our 1.89 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 2.10 (48%), under 2.5 1.91 (52%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.53, under 2.5 2.29. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 2.02 (49%), no 1.98 (51%). The market's averages: yes 1.62, no 2.20. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Brighton & Hove Albion's own 22 home matches read, one appeared in 9 (41%). In Crystal Palace's own 22 away matches read, 9 (41%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 41% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/epl/2026-10-18/brighton-and-hove-albion-v-crystal-palace/halftime/ Built 2026-10-16T06:06:13+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.