# Nottingham Forest v Arsenal — the Match Wizard Premier League, game week 7 — Sunday, 18 October 2026, kick-off 16:30 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Nottingham Forest: 44 league matches in the bank, 6 from this season and the rest from last season. Arsenal: 44 league matches in the bank, 6 from this season and the rest from last season. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **The table makes Arsenal the bigger side: 1st against 16th of 20 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Nottingham Forest takes 0.86 points a game, Arsenal 2.73 -- the block form is Arsenal's.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Nottingham Forest -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 15th of 20 after 6 games, with 5 points. Last season it finished 16th of 20 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the bottom block (14th to 20th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 6 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the top block (1st to 6th). Against that block it has won 2, drew 6, lost 6 of 14 -- 12 points of 42. At home against them: won 0 of 6. Away against them: won 2 of 8. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 6, lost 6 of 14 (0.86 a game); against the middle block won 4, drew 2, lost 8 of 14 (1.00 a game); against the bottom block won 6, drew 5, lost 4 of 15 (1.53 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 0, lost 1 of 1 (0.00 a game). ### Arsenal -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 2nd of 20 after 6 games, with 15 points. Last season it finished 1st of 20 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the top block (1st to 6th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 6 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the bottom block (14th to 20th). Against that block it has won 13, drew 2, lost 0 of 15 -- 41 points of 45. At home against them: won 8 of 8. Away against them: won 5 of 7. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 4, drew 2, lost 5 of 11 (1.27 a game); against the middle block won 13, drew 3, lost 1 of 17 (2.47 a game); against the bottom block won 13, drew 2, lost 0 of 15 (2.73 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 0 of 1 (3.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **-1.05 points a game is the venue form gap, in Arsenal's favour: Nottingham Forest takes 0.95 a game at home over the last two seasons, Arsenal 2.00 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Nottingham Forest -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 0, drew 1, lost 2 of 3, scoring 0 and conceding 2. Last season at home: won 4, drew 8, lost 7 of 19, scoring 20 and conceding 23 -- 1.05 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Crystal Palace 1-3 away; lost to Coventry City 0-1 at home; beat Aston Villa 2-1 away; drew with Tottenham Hotspur 0-0 at home; drew with Liverpool 2-2 away. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 5 different managers took its 44 matches with one recorded (18, 12, 6, 5, 3 apiece), most recently Oliver Glasner with 6. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Arsenal -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 2, drew 0, lost 1 of 3, scoring 3 and conceding 3. Last season away: won 11, drew 5, lost 3 of 19, scoring 30 and conceding 16 -- 2.00 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Leeds United 2-1 at home; lost to Brighton & Hove Albion 0-3 away; beat Sunderland 2-0 away; beat Chelsea 2-1 at home; beat Aston Villa 1-0 away. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 44 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Mikel Arteta Amatriain. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Nottingham Forest scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Arsenal scores heaviest in 46-60 and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Nottingham Forest's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Arsenal is softest.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Nottingham Forest scores most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 53); Nottingham Forest concedes most in the 76-90+ band (17 of 59); Arsenal scores most in the 46-60 band (19 of 81); Arsenal concedes most in the 76-90+ band (9 of 32). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Nottingham Forest -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 44 league matches; at home, 0.9 for and 1.1 against over 22. - **When it scores:** Of 53 scored across its own 44 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 3; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 53 (26%). - **When it concedes:** Of 59 conceded across its own 44 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 4; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 59 (29%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 14 of its 44 read -- then won 9, drew 4, lost 1; conceded first in 26 -- pulled back 3 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 14 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 9 of its 44 read, winning 9 of them; trailed by two in 12, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 6. ### Arsenal -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.8 and concedes 0.7 a game over its last 44 league matches; away, 1.5 for and 0.9 against over 22. - **When it scores:** Of 81 scored across its own 44 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 16; 46-60: 19; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 17. - **When it concedes:** Of 32 conceded across its own 44 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 3; 16-30: 2; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 9. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 9 of 32 (28%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 30 of its 44 read -- then won 27, drew 2, lost 1; conceded first in 12 -- pulled back 4 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 15 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 18 of its 44 read, winning 17 of them; trailed by two in 1, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 4. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 53% of their games, both teams scoring in 47%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 36%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Nottingham Forest's numbers over its games, Arsenal's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Nottingham Forest's own 22 home matches read, one appeared in 8 (36%). In Arsenal's own 22 away matches read, 8 (36%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 36% of games. ### Nottingham Forest -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 23 of its own 44 (52%); over 1.5 in 34 (77%); over 3.5 in 12 (27%). At home: over 2.5 in 8 of its 22 (36%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 21 of its own 44 (48%). At home: 9 of its 22 (41%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 10 of its own 44 (23%); failed to score in 17 (39%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Nottingham Forest's own 44 matches read: Nottingham Forest or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 21 (48%). Nottingham Forest itself held the lead in 9, winning 9. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 8 of 22. ### Arsenal -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 24 of its own 44 (55%); over 1.5 in 32 (73%); over 3.5 in 9 (20%). Away: over 2.5 in 10 of its 22 (45%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 20 of its own 44 (45%). Away: 10 of its 22 (45%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 22 of its own 44 (50%); failed to score in 4 (9%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Arsenal's own 44 matches read: Arsenal or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 19 (43%). Arsenal itself held the lead in 18, winning 17. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 8 of 22. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **The table makes Arsenal the bigger side: 1st against 16th of 20 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Nottingham Forest takes 0.86 points a game, Arsenal 2.73 -- the block form is Arsenal's. -1.05 points a game is the venue form gap, in Arsenal's favour: Nottingham Forest takes 0.95 a game at home over the last two seasons, Arsenal 2.00 away. Nottingham Forest scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Arsenal scores heaviest in 46-60 and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Nottingham Forest's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Arsenal is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 53% of their games, both teams scoring in 47%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 36%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Arsenal lands the first blow more often (30 of 44 to 14 of 44); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Arsenal's -- two goals clear in 18 of 44, against 9 of 44; Nottingham Forest finds its goals latest of all -- 14 of its 53 after the 75th, and Arsenal concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Nottingham Forest 0.69 goals expected, Arsenal 1.36, from two seasons of scoring rates (22 home matches and 22 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Nottingham Forest 5.31 (19%), the draw 3.56 (28%), Arsenal 1.88 (53%). The market's averages: 5.30, 3.97 and 1.50. The widest gap is on Arsenal: the market is shorter (1.50) than our 1.88 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 2.98 (34%), under 2.5 1.51 (66%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.97, under 2.5 1.97. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 2.71 (37%), no 1.58 (63%). The market's averages: yes 1.87, no 1.84. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Nottingham Forest's own 22 home matches read, one appeared in 8 (36%). In Arsenal's own 22 away matches read, 8 (36%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 36% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/epl/2026-10-18/nottingham-forest-v-arsenal/halftime/ Built 2026-10-15T23:06:21+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.