# Crystal Palace v Newcastle United — the Match Wizard Premier League, game week 8 — Sunday, 25 October 2026, kick-off 14:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Crystal Palace: 45 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season. Newcastle United: 45 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Crystal Palace and Newcastle United finished near neighbours last season -- 15th and 12th of 20 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Crystal Palace takes 1.24 points a game, Newcastle United 1.94 -- the block form is Newcastle United's.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Crystal Palace -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 16th of 20 after 7 games, with 7 points. Last season it finished 15th of 20 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the bottom block (14th to 20th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 7 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (7th to 13th). Against that block it has won 5, drew 6, lost 6 of 17 -- 21 points of 51. At home against them: won 2 of 7. Away against them: won 3 of 10. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 2, lost 9 of 13 (0.62 a game); against the middle block won 5, drew 6, lost 6 of 17 (1.24 a game); against the bottom block won 6, drew 5, lost 3 of 14 (1.64 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 0, lost 1 of 1 (0.00 a game). ### Newcastle United -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 14th of 20 after 7 games, with 8 points. Last season it finished 12th of 20 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (7th to 13th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 7 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the bottom block (14th to 20th). Against that block it has won 9, drew 4, lost 3 of 16 -- 31 points of 48. At home against them: won 6 of 7. Away against them: won 3 of 9. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 4, lost 9 of 15 (0.67 a game); against the middle block won 4, drew 1, lost 7 of 12 (1.08 a game); against the bottom block won 9, drew 4, lost 3 of 16 (1.94 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 1 of 2 (1.50 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+0.18 points a game is the venue form gap, in Crystal Palace's favour: Crystal Palace takes 1.09 a game at home over the last two seasons, Newcastle United 0.91 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Crystal Palace -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 1, drew 0, lost 2 of 3, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Last season at home: won 4, drew 9, lost 6 of 19, scoring 19 and conceding 23 -- 1.11 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Brighton & Hove Albion 0-5 away; beat Nottingham Forest 3-1 at home; drew with Leeds United 0-0 away; lost to Ipswich Town 2-3 at home; beat Fulham 3-2 away. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 45 matches with one recorded (38, 7 apiece), most recently Pierre Sage with 7. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Newcastle United -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 1, drew 0, lost 2 of 3, scoring 4 and conceding 8. Last season away: won 4, drew 5, lost 10 of 19, scoring 17 and conceding 25 -- 0.89 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Aston Villa 0-1 at home; lost to Coventry City 1-4 away; beat Hull City 2-1 at home; lost to Leeds United 1-4 away; drew with AFC Bournemouth 2-2 at home. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 45 matches with one recorded (38, 7 apiece), most recently Matthias Jaissle with 7. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Crystal Palace scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Newcastle United scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Crystal Palace scores most in the 31-45+ band (15 of 50); Crystal Palace concedes most in the 31-45+ band (24 of 68); Newcastle United scores most in the 76-90+ band (15 of 63); Newcastle United concedes most in the 76-90+ band (24 of 69). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Crystal Palace -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.1 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 45 league matches; at home, 1.1 for and 1.4 against over 22. - **When it scores:** Of 50 scored across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 15; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 12. - **When it concedes:** Of 68 conceded across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 2; 31-45+: 24; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 15. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 18 of its 45 read -- then won 9, drew 3, lost 6; conceded first in 20 -- pulled back 4 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 15 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 6 of its 45 read, winning 5 of them; trailed by two in 12, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 9. ### Newcastle United -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 45 league matches; away, 1.0 for and 1.5 against over 22. - **When it scores:** Of 63 scored across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 15. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 15 of 63 (24%). - **When it concedes:** Of 69 conceded across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 18; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 24. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 24 of 69 (35%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 26 of its 45 read -- then won 15, drew 4, lost 7; conceded first in 15 -- pulled back 1 win and 1 draw from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 4 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 10 of its 45 read, winning 9 of them; trailed by two in 9, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 11. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 61% of their games, both teams scoring in 60%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 39%. On the record this leans a goals match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Crystal Palace's numbers over its games, Newcastle United's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Crystal Palace's own 22 home matches read, one appeared in 8 (36%). In Newcastle United's own 22 away matches read, 9 (41%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 39% of games. ### Crystal Palace -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 26 of its own 45 (58%); over 1.5 in 33 (73%); over 3.5 in 13 (29%). At home: over 2.5 in 12 of its 22 (55%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 24 of its own 45 (53%). At home: 13 of its 22 (59%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 13 of its own 45 (29%); failed to score in 15 (33%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Crystal Palace's own 45 matches read: Crystal Palace or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 18 (40%). Crystal Palace itself held the lead in 6, winning 5. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 8 of 22. ### Newcastle United -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 29 of its own 45 (64%); over 1.5 in 35 (78%); over 3.5 in 17 (38%). Away: over 2.5 in 11 of its 22 (50%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 30 of its own 45 (67%). Away: 12 of its 22 (55%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 9 of its own 45 (20%); failed to score in 10 (22%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Newcastle United's own 45 matches read: Newcastle United or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 19 (42%). Newcastle United itself held the lead in 10, winning 9. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 9 of 22. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Crystal Palace and Newcastle United finished near neighbours last season -- 15th and 12th of 20 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Crystal Palace takes 1.24 points a game, Newcastle United 1.94 -- the block form is Newcastle United's. +0.18 points a game is the venue form gap, in Crystal Palace's favour: Crystal Palace takes 1.09 a game at home over the last two seasons, Newcastle United 0.91 away. Crystal Palace scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Newcastle United scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 61% of their games, both teams scoring in 60%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 39%. On the record this leans a goals match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Newcastle United lands the first blow more often (26 of 45 to 18 of 45); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Newcastle United's -- two goals clear in 10 of 45, against 6 of 45; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Crystal Palace's hands -- ahead without winning in 9 of 45; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Newcastle United's hands -- ahead without winning in 11 of 45; Newcastle United finds its goals latest of all -- 15 of its 63 after the 75th. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Crystal Palace 1.20 goals expected, Newcastle United 1.13, from two seasons of scoring rates (22 home matches and 22 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Crystal Palace 2.65 (38%), the draw 3.56 (28%), Newcastle United 2.92 (34%). The market's averages: 2.85, 3.60 and 2.30. The widest gap is on Newcastle United: the market is shorter (2.30) than our 2.92 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 2.42 (41%), under 2.5 1.71 (59%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.63, under 2.5 2.28. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 2.11 (47%), no 1.90 (53%). The market's averages: yes 1.44, no 2.80. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Crystal Palace's own 22 home matches read, one appeared in 8 (36%). In Newcastle United's own 22 away matches read, 9 (41%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 39% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/epl/2026-10-25/crystal-palace-v-newcastle-united/halftime/ Built 2026-10-25T10:04:23+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.