# Leeds United v Tottenham Hotspur — the Match Wizard Premier League, game week 10 — Saturday, 7 November 2026, kick-off 12:30 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Leeds United: 47 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season. Tottenham Hotspur: 47 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Leeds United and Tottenham Hotspur finished near neighbours last season -- 14th and 17th of 20 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Leeds United takes 1.71 points a game, Tottenham Hotspur 1.57 -- nothing between them.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Leeds United -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 11th of 20 after 9 games, with 11 points. Last season it finished 14th of 20 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the bottom block (14th to 20th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 9 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the bottom block (14th to 20th). Against that block it has won 7, drew 3, lost 4 of 14 -- 24 points of 42. At home against them: won 5 of 7. Away against them: won 2 of 7. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 1, drew 7, lost 7 of 15 (0.67 a game); against the middle block won 5, drew 9, lost 4 of 18 (1.33 a game); against the bottom block won 7, drew 3, lost 4 of 14 (1.71 a game). ### Tottenham Hotspur -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 9th of 20 after 9 games, with 12 points. Last season it finished 17th of 20 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the bottom block (14th to 20th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 9 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the bottom block (14th to 20th). Against that block it has won 6, drew 4, lost 4 of 14 -- 22 points of 42. At home against them: won 2 of 7. Away against them: won 4 of 7. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 4, lost 8 of 14 (0.71 a game); against the middle block won 4, drew 6, lost 8 of 18 (1.00 a game); against the bottom block won 6, drew 4, lost 4 of 14 (1.57 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 0 of 1 (3.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+0.30 points a game is the venue form gap, in Leeds United's favour: Leeds United takes 1.65 a game at home over the last two seasons, Tottenham Hotspur 1.35 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Leeds United -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 1, drew 3, lost 0 of 4, scoring 6 and conceding 3. Last season at home: won 9, drew 5, lost 5 of 19, scoring 29 and conceding 21 -- 1.68 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to AFC Bournemouth 0-2 away; drew with Sunderland 0-0 away; drew with Manchester United 1-1 at home; lost to Arsenal 1-2 away; drew with Crystal Palace 0-0 at home. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 47 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Daniel Farke. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Tottenham Hotspur -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 1, drew 2, lost 1 of 4, scoring 3 and conceding 4. Last season away: won 7, drew 5, lost 7 of 19, scoring 26 and conceding 26 -- 1.37 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Crystal Palace 2-0 at home; beat Chelsea 2-0 away; beat Coventry City 3-1 at home; drew with Manchester United 1-1 away; lost to Aston Villa 2-3 at home. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 3 different managers took its 47 matches with one recorded (26, 16, 5 apiece), most recently Roberto De Zerbi with 16. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Leeds United scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Tottenham Hotspur scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. The shapes mesh: Leeds United's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Tottenham Hotspur is softest.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Leeds United scores most in the 31-45+ band (14 of 58); Leeds United concedes most in the 76-90+ band (19 of 64); Tottenham Hotspur scores most in the 76-90+ band (19 of 58); Tottenham Hotspur concedes most in the 31-45+ band (21 of 67). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Leeds United -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 47 league matches; at home, 1.5 for and 1.0 against over 23. - **When it scores:** Of 58 scored across its own 47 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 11. - **When it concedes:** Of 64 conceded across its own 47 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 15; 76-90+: 19. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 19 of 64 (30%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 20 of its 47 read -- then won 12, drew 4, lost 4; conceded first in 21 -- pulled back 1 win and 9 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 12 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 9 of its 47 read, winning 9 of them; trailed by two in 10, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 9. ### Tottenham Hotspur -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 47 league matches; away, 1.3 for and 1.3 against over 23. - **When it scores:** Of 58 scored across its own 47 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 19. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 19 of 58 (33%). - **When it concedes:** Of 67 conceded across its own 47 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 4; 31-45+: 21; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 15. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 20 of its 47 read -- then won 13, drew 4, lost 3; conceded first in 24 -- pulled back 0 wins and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 9 of its 47 read, winning 9 of them; trailed by two in 15, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 8. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 53% of their games, both teams scoring in 56%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 46%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Leeds United's numbers over its games, Tottenham Hotspur's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Leeds United's own 23 home matches read, one appeared in 9 (39%). In Tottenham Hotspur's own 23 away matches read, 12 (52%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 46% of games. ### Leeds United -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 23 of its own 47 (49%); over 1.5 in 34 (72%); over 3.5 in 15 (32%). At home: over 2.5 in 12 of its 23 (52%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 27 of its own 47 (57%). At home: 13 of its 23 (57%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 11 of its own 47 (23%); failed to score in 15 (32%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Leeds United's own 47 matches read: Leeds United or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 19 (40%). Leeds United itself held the lead in 9, winning 9. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 9 of 23. ### Tottenham Hotspur -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 27 of its own 47 (57%); over 1.5 in 38 (81%); over 3.5 in 12 (26%). Away: over 2.5 in 13 of its 23 (57%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 26 of its own 47 (55%). Away: 11 of its 23 (48%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 13 of its own 47 (28%); failed to score in 11 (23%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Tottenham Hotspur's own 47 matches read: Tottenham Hotspur or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 24 (51%). Tottenham Hotspur itself held the lead in 9, winning 9. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 12 of 23. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Leeds United and Tottenham Hotspur finished near neighbours last season -- 14th and 17th of 20 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Leeds United takes 1.71 points a game, Tottenham Hotspur 1.57 -- nothing between them. +0.30 points a game is the venue form gap, in Leeds United's favour: Leeds United takes 1.65 a game at home over the last two seasons, Tottenham Hotspur 1.35 away. Leeds United scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Tottenham Hotspur scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. The shapes mesh: Leeds United's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Tottenham Hotspur is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 53% of their games, both teams scoring in 56%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 46%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (20 of 47 and 20 of 47); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Leeds United's hands -- ahead without winning in 9 of 47; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Tottenham Hotspur's hands -- ahead without winning in 8 of 47; Tottenham Hotspur finds its goals latest of all -- 19 of its 58 after the 75th, and Leeds United concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Leeds United 1.35 goals expected, Tottenham Hotspur 1.11, from two seasons of scoring rates (23 home matches and 23 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Leeds United 2.37 (42%), the draw 3.70 (27%), Tottenham Hotspur 3.26 (31%). The market's averages: 2.55, 3.43 and 2.62. The widest gap is on Tottenham Hotspur: the market is shorter (2.62) than our 3.26 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 2.25 (44%), under 2.5 1.80 (56%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.96, under 2.5 1.90. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 2.02 (50%), no 1.98 (50%). The market's averages: yes 1.71, no 2.02. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Leeds United's own 23 home matches read, one appeared in 9 (39%). In Tottenham Hotspur's own 23 away matches read, 12 (52%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 46% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/epl/2026-11-07/leeds-united-v-tottenham-hotspur/halftime/ Built 2026-11-05T06:03:30+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.