# Wigan Athletic v Stockport County — the Match Wizard League One, game week 5 — Saturday, 5 September 2026, kick-off 12:30 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Wigan Athletic: 50 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season. Stockport County: 50 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season. Look and learn: it is early in the season, so nearly everything counted here was earned last season -- by squads and dugouts a summer window may have reshaped. Treat the first five weeks as pointers while the new shapes settle, not proof. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **The table makes Stockport County the bigger side: 4th against 16th of 24 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Wigan Athletic takes 0.62 points a game, Stockport County 2.12 -- the block form is Stockport County's.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Wigan Athletic -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 23rd of 24 after 4 games, with 3 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 16th of 24 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (9th to 16th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 4 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the top block (1st to 8th). Against that block it has won 2, drew 4, lost 10 of 16 -- 10 points of 48. At home against them: won 2 of 8. Away against them: won 0 of 8. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 4, lost 10 of 16 (0.62 a game); against the middle block won 3, drew 6, lost 5 of 14 (1.07 a game); against the bottom block won 9, drew 4, lost 5 of 18 (1.72 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 1 of 2 (1.50 a game). ### Stockport County -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 9th of 24 after 4 games, with 6 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 4th of 24 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the top block (1st to 8th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 4 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (9th to 16th). Against that block it has won 11, drew 3, lost 3 of 17 -- 36 points of 51. At home against them: won 6 of 10. Away against them: won 5 of 7. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 4, drew 4, lost 10 of 18 (0.89 a game); against the middle block won 11, drew 3, lost 3 of 17 (2.12 a game); against the bottom block won 9, drew 3, lost 3 of 15 (2.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+0.16 points a game is the venue form gap, in Wigan Athletic's favour: Wigan Athletic takes 1.60 a game at home over the last two seasons, Stockport County 1.44 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Wigan Athletic -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 1, drew 0, lost 1 of 2, scoring 3 and conceding 3. Last season at home: won 11, drew 4, lost 8 of 23, scoring 24 and conceding 17 -- 1.61 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Milton Keynes Dons 3-1 at home; lost to AFC Wimbledon 0-1 away; lost to Leyton Orient 0-2 at home; lost to Cambridge United 2-3 away; lost to Stevenage 0-1 away. The last of these is from last season. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 21 matches with one recorded (12, 9 apiece), most recently Gary Caldwell with 12. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Stockport County -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 1, drew 0, lost 1 of 2, scoring 3 and conceding 3. Last season away: won 9, drew 6, lost 8 of 23, scoring 31 and conceding 33 -- 1.43 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Luton Town 0-2 away; beat Wycombe Wanderers 5-1 at home; lost to Blackpool 1-2 at home; beat Plymouth Argyle 3-1 away; lost to Bolton Wanderers 1-4 away. The last of these is from last season. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 24 matches with one recorded (20, 4 apiece), most recently Jim McNulty with 4. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Wigan Athletic scores heaviest in the 61-75 spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Stockport County scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Stockport County's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Wigan Athletic is softest.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Wigan Athletic scores most in the 61-75 band (11 of 54); Wigan Athletic concedes most in the 76-90+ band (15 of 65); Stockport County scores most in the 76-90+ band (20 of 78); Stockport County concedes most in the 76-90+ band (15 of 65). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Wigan Athletic -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.1 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.1 for and 0.8 against over 25. - **When it scores:** Of 54 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 10. - **When it concedes:** Of 65 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 12; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 15. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 15 of 65 (23%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 20 of its 50 read -- then won 14, drew 5, lost 1; conceded first in 27 -- pulled back 1 win and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 11 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 9 of its 50 read, winning 9 of them; trailed by two in 12, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 6. ### Stockport County -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.6 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.4 for and 1.4 against over 25. - **When it scores:** Of 78 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 16; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 20. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 20 of 78 (26%). - **When it concedes:** Of 65 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 15. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 15 of 65 (23%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 25 of its 50 read -- then won 18, drew 5, lost 2; conceded first in 23 -- pulled back 6 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 21 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 15 of its 50 read, winning 14 of them; trailed by two in 10, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 8. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 48% of their games, both teams scoring in 52%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 50%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Wigan Athletic's numbers over its games, Stockport County's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Wigan Athletic's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (44%). In Stockport County's own 25 away matches read, 14 (56%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 50% of games. ### Wigan Athletic -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 18 of its own 50 (36%); over 1.5 in 35 (70%); over 3.5 in 10 (20%). At home: over 2.5 in 7 of its 25 (28%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 22 of its own 50 (44%). At home: 6 of its 25 (24%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 13 of its own 50 (26%); failed to score in 18 (36%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Wigan Athletic's own 50 matches read: Wigan Athletic or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 21 (42%). Wigan Athletic itself held the lead in 9, winning 9. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 11 of 25. ### Stockport County -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 30 of its own 50 (60%); over 1.5 in 40 (80%); over 3.5 in 13 (26%). Away: over 2.5 in 14 of its 25 (56%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 30 of its own 50 (60%). Away: 14 of its 25 (56%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 13 of its own 50 (26%); failed to score in 9 (18%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Stockport County's own 50 matches read: Stockport County or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 25 (50%). Stockport County itself held the lead in 15, winning 14. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 14 of 25. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **The table makes Stockport County the bigger side: 4th against 16th of 24 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Wigan Athletic takes 0.62 points a game, Stockport County 2.12 -- the block form is Stockport County's. +0.16 points a game is the venue form gap, in Wigan Athletic's favour: Wigan Athletic takes 1.60 a game at home over the last two seasons, Stockport County 1.44 away. Wigan Athletic scores heaviest in the 61-75 spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Stockport County scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Stockport County's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Wigan Athletic is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 48% of their games, both teams scoring in 52%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 50%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Stockport County lands the first blow more often (25 of 50 to 20 of 50); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Stockport County's -- two goals clear in 15 of 50, against 9 of 50; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Stockport County's hands -- ahead without winning in 8 of 50; Stockport County finds its goals latest of all -- 20 of its 78 after the 75th, and Wigan Athletic concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Wigan Athletic 1.13 goals expected, Stockport County 1.00, from two seasons of scoring rates (25 home matches and 25 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Wigan Athletic 2.59 (39%), the draw 3.38 (30%), Stockport County 3.15 (32%). The market's averages: 3.00, 3.55 and 2.20. The widest gap is on Stockport County: the market is shorter (2.20) than our 3.15 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 2.79 (36%), under 2.5 1.56 (64%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.73, under 2.5 2.00. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 2.34 (43%), no 1.75 (57%). The market's averages: yes 1.60, no 2.25. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Wigan Athletic's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (44%). In Stockport County's own 25 away matches read, 14 (56%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 50% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/league-one/2026-09-05/wigan-athletic-v-stockport-county/halftime/ Built 2026-09-05T05:38:23+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.