# Bradford City v Stevenage — the Match Wizard League One, game week 11 — Saturday, 17 October 2026, kick-off 15:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Bradford City: 50 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season. Stevenage: 50 league matches in the bank, 8 from this season and the rest from last season. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Bradford City and Stevenage finished near neighbours last season -- 5th and 6th of 24 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Bradford City takes 1.06 points a game, Stevenage 1.12 -- nothing between them.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Bradford City -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 2nd of 24 after 9 games, with 17 points. Last season it finished 5th of 24 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the top block (1st to 8th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 9 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the top block (1st to 8th). Against that block it has won 4, drew 5, lost 7 of 16 -- 17 points of 48. At home against them: won 1 of 7. Away against them: won 3 of 9. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 4, drew 5, lost 7 of 16 (1.06 a game); against the middle block won 8, drew 4, lost 4 of 16 (1.75 a game); against the bottom block won 9, drew 2, lost 4 of 15 (1.93 a game); against sides new to the division won 2, drew 0, lost 1 of 3 (2.00 a game). ### Stevenage -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 9th of 24 after 8 games, with 12 points. Last season it finished 6th of 24 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the top block (1st to 8th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 8 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the top block (1st to 8th). Against that block it has won 5, drew 4, lost 8 of 17 -- 19 points of 51. At home against them: won 3 of 9. Away against them: won 2 of 8. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 5, drew 4, lost 8 of 17 (1.12 a game); against the middle block won 7, drew 6, lost 3 of 16 (1.69 a game); against the bottom block won 7, drew 5, lost 4 of 16 (1.62 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 0, lost 1 of 1 (0.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+0.92 points a game is the venue form gap, in Bradford City's favour: Bradford City takes 1.92 a game at home over the last two seasons, Stevenage 1.00 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Bradford City -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 2, drew 1, lost 1 of 4, scoring 4 and conceding 2. Last season at home: won 12, drew 5, lost 4 of 21, scoring 25 and conceding 14 -- 1.95 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: drew with Leyton Orient 0-0 at home; drew with Reading 1-1 away; beat Luton Town 1-0 away; beat Notts County 1-0 away; beat Mansfield Town 1-0 at home. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 20 matches with one recorded (19, 1 apiece), most recently Michael Duff with 1. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Stevenage -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 1, drew 2, lost 1 of 4, scoring 6 and conceding 3. Last season away: won 5, drew 5, lost 11 of 21, scoring 17 and conceding 31 -- 0.95 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Wigan Athletic 1-0 at home; lost to Leyton Orient 0-1 away; beat Luton Town 2-1 at home; beat Barnsley 5-1 away; drew with Peterborough United 0-0 away. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 21 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Alex Revell. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Bradford City scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Stevenage scores heaviest in 46-60 and concedes heaviest in 61-75.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Bradford City scores most in the 76-90+ band (13 of 55); Bradford City concedes most in the 31-45+ band (10 of 49); Stevenage scores most in the 46-60 band (13 of 52); Stevenage concedes most in the 61-75 band (16 of 53). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Bradford City -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.1 and concedes 1.0 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.2 for and 0.6 against over 25. - **When it scores:** Of 55 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 13. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 13 of 55 (24%). - **When it concedes:** Of 49 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 10. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 10 of 49 (20%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 27 of its 50 read -- then won 22, drew 3, lost 2; conceded first in 20 -- pulled back 1 win and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 7 of its 50 read, winning 7 of them; trailed by two in 10, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 6. ### Stevenage -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.0 and concedes 1.1 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 0.9 for and 1.4 against over 25. - **When it scores:** Of 52 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 5; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 10. - **When it concedes:** Of 53 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 3; 46-60: 6; 61-75: 16; 76-90+: 12. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 23 of its 50 read -- then won 15, drew 5, lost 3; conceded first in 21 -- pulled back 4 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 17 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 5 of its 50 read, winning 5 of them; trailed by two in 7, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 9. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 39% of their games, both teams scoring in 47%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 30%. On the record this leans a tight match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Bradford City's numbers over its games, Stevenage's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Bradford City's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 6 (24%). In Stevenage's own 25 away matches read, 9 (36%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 30% of games. ### Bradford City -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 20 of its own 50 (40%); over 1.5 in 31 (62%); over 3.5 in 6 (12%). At home: over 2.5 in 7 of its 25 (28%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 23 of its own 50 (46%). At home: 10 of its 25 (40%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 19 of its own 50 (38%); failed to score in 11 (22%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Bradford City's own 50 matches read: Bradford City or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 17 (34%). Bradford City itself held the lead in 7, winning 7. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 6 of 25. ### Stevenage -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 19 of its own 50 (38%); over 1.5 in 27 (54%); over 3.5 in 10 (20%). Away: over 2.5 in 10 of its 25 (40%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 24 of its own 50 (48%). Away: 12 of its 25 (48%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 18 of its own 50 (36%); failed to score in 14 (28%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Stevenage's own 50 matches read: Stevenage or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 12 (24%). Stevenage itself held the lead in 5, winning 5. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 9 of 25. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Bradford City and Stevenage finished near neighbours last season -- 5th and 6th of 24 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Bradford City takes 1.06 points a game, Stevenage 1.12 -- nothing between them. +0.92 points a game is the venue form gap, in Bradford City's favour: Bradford City takes 1.92 a game at home over the last two seasons, Stevenage 1.00 away. Bradford City scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Stevenage scores heaviest in 46-60 and concedes heaviest in 61-75. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 39% of their games, both teams scoring in 47%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 30%. On the record this leans a tight match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Bradford City lands the first blow more often (27 of 50 to 23 of 50); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Stevenage's hands -- ahead without winning in 9 of 50; Bradford City finds its goals latest of all -- 13 of its 55 after the 75th. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Bradford City 1.14 goals expected, Stevenage 0.62, from two seasons of scoring rates (25 home matches and 25 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Bradford City 2.07 (48%), the draw 3.16 (32%), Stevenage 5.01 (20%). The market's averages: 1.90, 3.30 and 3.93. The widest gap is on Stevenage: the market is shorter (3.93) than our 5.01 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 3.85 (26%), under 2.5 1.35 (74%). The market's averages: over 2.5 2.20, under 2.5 1.65. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 3.18 (31%), no 1.46 (69%). The market's averages: yes 1.95, no 1.76. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Bradford City's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 6 (24%). In Stevenage's own 25 away matches read, 9 (36%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 30% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/league-one/2026-10-17/bradford-city-v-stevenage/halftime/ Built 2026-10-16T02:23:21+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.