# Newport County v Grimsby Town — the Match Wizard League Two, game week 8 — Saturday, 26 September 2026, kick-off 15:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Newport County: 50 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season. Grimsby Town: 50 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **The table makes Grimsby Town the bigger side: 7th against 20th of 24 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Newport County takes 0.73 points a game, Grimsby Town 1.93 -- the block form is Grimsby Town's.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Newport County -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 20th of 24 after 7 games, with 6 points. Last season it finished 20th of 24 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the bottom block (17th to 24th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 7 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the top block (1st to 8th). Against that block it has won 3, drew 2, lost 10 of 15 -- 11 points of 45. At home against them: won 1 of 7. Away against them: won 2 of 8. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 3, drew 2, lost 10 of 15 (0.73 a game); against the middle block won 3, drew 4, lost 12 of 19 (0.68 a game); against the bottom block won 5, drew 3, lost 6 of 14 (1.29 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 1 of 2 (1.50 a game). ### Grimsby Town -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 3rd of 24 after 7 games, with 13 points. Last season it finished 7th of 24 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the top block (1st to 8th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 7 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the bottom block (17th to 24th). Against that block it has won 8, drew 5, lost 2 of 15 -- 29 points of 45. At home against them: won 5 of 7. Away against them: won 3 of 8. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 6, drew 4, lost 6 of 16 (1.38 a game); against the middle block won 7, drew 6, lost 5 of 18 (1.50 a game); against the bottom block won 8, drew 5, lost 2 of 15 (1.93 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 0 of 1 (3.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **-0.46 points a game is the venue form gap, in Grimsby Town's favour: Newport County takes 1.04 a game at home over the last two seasons, Grimsby Town 1.50 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Newport County -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 1, drew 2, lost 0 of 3, scoring 6 and conceding 3. Last season at home: won 6, drew 3, lost 13 of 22, scoring 23 and conceding 36 -- 0.95 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: drew with Accrington Stanley 0-0 away; drew with Fleetwood Town 1-1 at home; lost to Northampton Town 0-1 away; lost to Salford City 1-2 away; drew with Tranmere Rovers 2-2 at home. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 7 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Hayden Mullins. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Grimsby Town -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 0, drew 3, lost 0 of 3, scoring 4 and conceding 4. Last season away: won 9, drew 6, lost 6 of 21, scoring 30 and conceding 26 -- 1.57 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Crawley Town 2-0 at home; beat Bristol Rovers 2-0 at home; drew with Cheltenham Town 2-2 away; drew with Accrington Stanley 2-2 away; drew with Fleetwood Town 2-2 at home. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 22 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by David Artell. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Newport County scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Grimsby Town scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Newport County scores most in the 76-90+ band (18 of 54); Newport County concedes most in the 76-90+ band (22 of 84); Grimsby Town scores most in the 31-45+ band (24 of 78); Grimsby Town concedes most in the 31-45+ band (13 of 55). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Newport County -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.1 and concedes 1.7 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.2 for and 1.6 against over 25. - **When it scores:** Of 54 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 3; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 18. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 18 of 54 (33%). - **When it concedes:** Of 84 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 17; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 15; 76-90+: 22. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 22 of 84 (26%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 19 of its 50 read -- then won 9, drew 3, lost 7; conceded first in 27 -- pulled back 3 wins and 2 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 15 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 6 of its 50 read, winning 6 of them; trailed by two in 18, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 10. ### Grimsby Town -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.6 and concedes 1.1 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.4 for and 1.2 against over 24. - **When it scores:** Of 78 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 24; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 14. - **When it concedes:** Of 55 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 9. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 28 of its 50 read -- then won 21, drew 4, lost 3; conceded first in 19 -- pulled back 1 win and 8 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 11 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 14 of its 50 read, winning 12 of them; trailed by two in 9, rescuing 3 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 10. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 52% of their games, both teams scoring in 51%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 53%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Newport County's numbers over its games, Grimsby Town's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Newport County's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 13 (52%). In Grimsby Town's own 24 away matches read, 13 (54%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 53% of games. ### Newport County -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 28 of its own 50 (56%); over 1.5 in 37 (74%); over 3.5 in 15 (30%). At home: over 2.5 in 13 of its 25 (52%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 26 of its own 50 (52%). At home: 13 of its 25 (52%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 9 of its own 50 (18%); failed to score in 19 (38%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Newport County's own 50 matches read: Newport County or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 24 (48%). Newport County itself held the lead in 6, winning 6. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 13 of 25. ### Grimsby Town -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 24 of its own 50 (48%); over 1.5 in 35 (70%); over 3.5 in 18 (36%). Away: over 2.5 in 12 of its 24 (50%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 25 of its own 50 (50%). Away: 13 of its 24 (54%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 19 of its own 50 (38%); failed to score in 9 (18%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Grimsby Town's own 50 matches read: Grimsby Town or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 23 (46%). Grimsby Town itself held the lead in 14, winning 12. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 13 of 24. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **The table makes Grimsby Town the bigger side: 7th against 20th of 24 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Newport County takes 0.73 points a game, Grimsby Town 1.93 -- the block form is Grimsby Town's. -0.46 points a game is the venue form gap, in Grimsby Town's favour: Newport County takes 1.04 a game at home over the last two seasons, Grimsby Town 1.50 away. Newport County scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Grimsby Town scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 52% of their games, both teams scoring in 51%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 53%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Grimsby Town lands the first blow more often (28 of 50 to 19 of 50); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Grimsby Town's -- two goals clear in 14 of 50, against 6 of 50; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Newport County's hands -- ahead without winning in 10 of 50; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Grimsby Town's hands -- ahead without winning in 10 of 50; Newport County finds its goals latest of all -- 18 of its 54 after the 75th. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Newport County 1.12 goals expected, Grimsby Town 1.70, from two seasons of scoring rates (25 home matches and 24 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Newport County 4.01 (25%), the draw 4.17 (24%), Grimsby Town 1.96 (51%). The market's averages: 4.11, 3.62 and 1.79. The widest gap is on the draw: the market is shorter (3.62) than our 4.17 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 1.87 (53%), under 2.5 2.15 (47%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.83, under 2.5 1.94. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 1.82 (55%), no 2.22 (45%). The market's averages: yes 1.70, no 2.01. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Newport County's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 13 (52%). In Grimsby Town's own 24 away matches read, 13 (54%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 53% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/league-two/2026-09-26/newport-county-v-grimsby-town/halftime/ Built 2026-09-23T23:05:06+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.