# Oldham Athletic v Salford City — the Match Wizard League Two, game week 8 — Saturday, 26 September 2026, kick-off 17:30 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Oldham Athletic: 50 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season. Salford City: 50 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **The table makes Salford City the bigger side: 4th against 10th of 24 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Oldham Athletic takes 1.25 points a game, Salford City 2.07 -- the block form is Salford City's.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Oldham Athletic -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 16th of 24 after 7 games, with 7 points. Last season it finished 10th of 24 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (9th to 16th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 7 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the top block (1st to 8th). Against that block it has won 5, drew 5, lost 6 of 16 -- 20 points of 48. At home against them: won 3 of 9. Away against them: won 2 of 7. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 5, drew 5, lost 6 of 16 (1.25 a game); against the middle block won 5, drew 5, lost 5 of 15 (1.33 a game); against the bottom block won 9, drew 3, lost 5 of 17 (1.76 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 1 of 2 (1.50 a game). ### Salford City -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 12th of 24 after 7 games, with 10 points. Last season it finished 4th of 24 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the top block (1st to 8th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 7 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (9th to 16th). Against that block it has won 9, drew 2, lost 3 of 14 -- 29 points of 42. At home against them: won 6 of 7. Away against them: won 3 of 7. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 6, drew 2, lost 10 of 18 (1.11 a game); against the middle block won 9, drew 2, lost 3 of 14 (2.07 a game); against the bottom block won 10, drew 2, lost 4 of 16 (2.00 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 1, lost 0 of 2 (2.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+0.47 points a game is the venue form gap, in Oldham Athletic's favour: Oldham Athletic takes 1.79 a game at home over the last two seasons, Salford City 1.32 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Oldham Athletic -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 2, drew 0, lost 1 of 3, scoring 6 and conceding 2. Last season at home: won 10, drew 7, lost 4 of 21, scoring 28 and conceding 15 -- 1.76 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Rochdale 0-2 away; lost to Chesterfield 1-2 at home; lost to Tranmere Rovers 0-2 away; drew with Fleetwood Town 1-1 away; beat Swindon Town 3-0 at home. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 22 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Micky Mellon. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Salford City -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 0, drew 1, lost 2 of 3, scoring 4 and conceding 7. Last season away: won 10, drew 2, lost 10 of 22, scoring 26 and conceding 29 -- 1.45 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Swindon Town 1-0 at home; drew with Rotherham United 3-3 away; beat Port Vale 1-0 at home; beat Newport County 2-1 at home; lost to Shrewsbury Town 0-1 away. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 23 matches with one recorded (16, 7 apiece), most recently Peter Cklamovski with 7. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Oldham Athletic scores heaviest in the 46-60 spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Salford City scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. The shapes mesh: Salford City's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Oldham Athletic is softest.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Oldham Athletic scores most in the 46-60 band (14 of 66); Oldham Athletic concedes most in the 76-90+ band (13 of 50); Salford City scores most in the 76-90+ band (22 of 66); Salford City concedes most in the 31-45+ band (15 of 59). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Oldham Athletic -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.0 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.4 for and 0.7 against over 24. - **When it scores:** Of 66 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 14; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 66 (21%). - **When it concedes:** Of 50 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 13. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 13 of 50 (26%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 24 of its 50 read -- then won 19, drew 1, lost 4; conceded first in 21 -- pulled back 1 win and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 10 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 13 of its 50 read, winning 13 of them; trailed by two in 6, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 7. ### Salford City -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.2 for and 1.4 against over 25. - **When it scores:** Of 66 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 12; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 22. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 22 of 66 (33%). - **When it concedes:** Of 59 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 3; 31-45+: 15; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 14. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 28 of its 50 read -- then won 22, drew 3, lost 3; conceded first in 18 -- pulled back 4 wins and 0 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 14 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 12 of its 50 read, winning 11 of them; trailed by two in 9, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 6. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 47% of their games, both teams scoring in 44%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 47%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Oldham Athletic's numbers over its games, Salford City's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Oldham Athletic's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (42%). In Salford City's own 25 away matches read, 13 (52%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 47% of games. ### Oldham Athletic -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 24 of its own 50 (48%); over 1.5 in 35 (70%); over 3.5 in 9 (18%). At home: over 2.5 in 10 of its 24 (42%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 21 of its own 50 (42%). At home: 9 of its 24 (38%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 20 of its own 50 (40%); failed to score in 14 (28%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Oldham Athletic's own 50 matches read: Oldham Athletic or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 19 (38%). Oldham Athletic itself held the lead in 13, winning 13. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 10 of 24. ### Salford City -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 23 of its own 50 (46%); over 1.5 in 31 (62%); over 3.5 in 14 (28%). Away: over 2.5 in 13 of its 25 (52%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 23 of its own 50 (46%). Away: 13 of its 25 (52%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 16 of its own 50 (32%); failed to score in 15 (30%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Salford City's own 50 matches read: Salford City or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 21 (42%). Salford City itself held the lead in 12, winning 11. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 13 of 25. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **The table makes Salford City the bigger side: 4th against 10th of 24 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Oldham Athletic takes 1.25 points a game, Salford City 2.07 -- the block form is Salford City's. +0.47 points a game is the venue form gap, in Oldham Athletic's favour: Oldham Athletic takes 1.79 a game at home over the last two seasons, Salford City 1.32 away. Oldham Athletic scores heaviest in the 46-60 spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Salford City scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. The shapes mesh: Salford City's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Oldham Athletic is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 47% of their games, both teams scoring in 44%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 47%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Salford City lands the first blow more often (28 of 50 to 24 of 50); Salford City finds its goals latest of all -- 22 of its 66 after the 75th, and Oldham Athletic concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Oldham Athletic 1.46 goals expected, Salford City 0.81, from two seasons of scoring rates (24 home matches and 25 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Oldham Athletic 1.90 (53%), the draw 3.76 (27%), Salford City 4.84 (21%). The market's averages: 2.67, 3.42 and 2.39. The widest gap is on Salford City: the market is shorter (2.39) than our 4.84 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 2.53 (40%), under 2.5 1.66 (60%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.86, under 2.5 1.91. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 2.35 (43%), no 1.74 (57%). The market's averages: yes 1.57, no 2.30. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Oldham Athletic's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (42%). In Salford City's own 25 away matches read, 13 (52%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 47% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/league-two/2026-09-26/oldham-athletic-v-salford-city/halftime/ Built 2026-09-23T23:05:37+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.