# York City v Gillingham — the Match Wizard League Two, game week 8 — Saturday, 26 September 2026, kick-off 15:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. York City: 50 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season in the National League. Gillingham: 50 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **York City is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### York City -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 7th of 24 after 7 games, with 11 points. It was not in this division last season -- it came up from the National League, where it finished 2nd of 24. - **Its block:** New to the division this season, so it takes no block from last season's final table. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the bottom block (17th to 24th). Against that block it has won 13, drew 0, lost 2 of 15 -- 39 points of 45. At home against them: won 7 of 7. Away against them: won 6 of 8. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 6, drew 5, lost 3 of 14 (1.64 a game); against the middle block won 15, drew 3, lost 1 of 19 (2.53 a game); against the bottom block won 13, drew 0, lost 2 of 15 (2.60 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 1, lost 0 of 2 (2.00 a game). ### Gillingham -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 4th of 24 after 7 games, with 12 points. Last season it finished 17th of 24 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the bottom block (17th to 24th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 7 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side new to its division. Against that block it has won 1, drew 1, lost 0 of 2. At home against them: won 0 of 1. Away against them: won 1 of 1. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 5, lost 10 of 17 (0.65 a game); against the middle block won 5, drew 5, lost 7 of 17 (1.18 a game); against the bottom block won 7, drew 4, lost 3 of 14 (1.79 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 1, lost 0 of 2 (2.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+1.48 points a game is the venue form gap, in York City's favour: York City takes 2.52 a game at home over the last two seasons, Gillingham 1.04 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### York City -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 3, drew 0, lost 0 of 3, scoring 9 and conceding 3. Last season at home in the National League: won 17, drew 3, lost 2 of 22, scoring 67 and conceding 19 -- 2.45 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Chesterfield 0-2 away; beat Swindon Town 4-0 at home; drew with Crewe Alexandra 1-1 away; lost to Cheltenham Town 2-3 away; beat Exeter City 2-1 at home. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 4 different managers took its 18 matches with one recorded (7, 5, 5, 1 apiece), most recently Scott Lindsey with 7. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Gillingham -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 1, drew 2, lost 0 of 3, scoring 5 and conceding 2. Last season away: won 5, drew 5, lost 11 of 21, scoring 22 and conceding 34 -- 0.95 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Bristol Rovers 3-0 at home; beat Tranmere Rovers 2-0 at home; beat Rochdale 4-1 away; drew with Chesterfield 1-1 away; drew with Northampton Town 1-1 at home. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 22 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Gareth Ainsworth. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **York City scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Gillingham scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: York City's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Gillingham is softest.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: York City scores most in the 76-90+ band (37 of 123); York City concedes most in the 76-90+ band (16 of 49); Gillingham scores most in the 76-90+ band (17 of 61); Gillingham concedes most in the 76-90+ band (22 of 76). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### York City -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 2.5 and concedes 1.0 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 3.0 for and 0.9 against over 25. - **When it scores:** Of 123 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 24; 31-45+: 19; 46-60: 18; 61-75: 14; 76-90+: 37. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 37 of 123 (30%). - **When it concedes:** Of 49 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 49 (33%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 32 of its 50 read -- then won 29, drew 1, lost 2; conceded first in 18 -- pulled back 6 wins and 8 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 33 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 24 of its 50 read, winning 24 of them; trailed by two in 5, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 3. ### Gillingham -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.1 for and 1.5 against over 24. - **When it scores:** Of 61 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 3; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 61 (28%). - **When it concedes:** Of 76 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 14; 16-30: 14; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 22. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 22 of 76 (29%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 21 of its 50 read -- then won 13, drew 5, lost 3; conceded first in 26 -- pulled back 2 wins and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 13 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 9 of its 50 read, winning 8 of them; trailed by two in 14, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 9. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 60% of their games, both teams scoring in 56%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 55%. On the record this leans a goals match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- York City's numbers over its games, Gillingham's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In York City's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 17 (68%). In Gillingham's own 24 away matches read, 10 (42%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 55% of games. ### York City -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 36 of its own 50 (72%); over 1.5 in 45 (90%); over 3.5 in 25 (50%). At home: over 2.5 in 22 of its 25 (88%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 30 of its own 50 (60%). At home: 14 of its 25 (56%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 18 of its own 50 (36%); failed to score in 2 (4%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over York City's own 50 matches read: York City or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 29 (58%). York City itself held the lead in 24, winning 24. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 17 of 25. ### Gillingham -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 24 of its own 50 (48%); over 1.5 in 36 (72%); over 3.5 in 15 (30%). Away: over 2.5 in 11 of its 24 (46%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 26 of its own 50 (52%). Away: 10 of its 24 (42%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 13 of its own 50 (26%); failed to score in 14 (28%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Gillingham's own 50 matches read: Gillingham or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 23 (46%). Gillingham itself held the lead in 9, winning 8. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 10 of 24. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **York City is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. +1.48 points a game is the venue form gap, in York City's favour: York City takes 2.52 a game at home over the last two seasons, Gillingham 1.04 away. York City scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Gillingham scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: York City's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Gillingham is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 60% of their games, both teams scoring in 56%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 55%. On the record this leans a goals match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: York City lands the first blow more often (32 of 50 to 21 of 50); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often York City's -- two goals clear in 24 of 50, against 9 of 50; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Gillingham's hands -- ahead without winning in 9 of 50; York City finds its goals latest of all -- 37 of its 123 after the 75th, and Gillingham concedes most in that same spell; Gillingham finds its goals latest of all -- 17 of its 61 after the 75th, and York City concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: York City 2.92 goals expected, Gillingham 0.89, from two seasons of scoring rates (25 home matches and 24 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: York City's figures include last season in the National League, where goals came against different company. - **Match result:** Our tissue: York City 1.27 (79%), the draw 7.69 (13%), Gillingham 12 (8%). The market's averages: 1.48, 4.60 and 5.36. The widest gap is on Gillingham: the market is shorter (5.36) than our 12 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 1.36 (73%), under 2.5 3.75 (27%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.58, under 2.5 2.19. The market offers more than our number on over 2.5 -- if our figures are right that is value; nothing proves they are. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 1.79 (56%), no 2.27 (44%). The market's averages: yes 1.65, no 2.02. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In York City's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 17 (68%). In Gillingham's own 24 away matches read, 10 (42%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 55% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/league-two/2026-09-26/york-city-v-gillingham/halftime/ Built 2026-09-23T23:05:18+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.