# Crewe Alexandra v Rochdale — the Match Wizard League Two, game week 11 — Saturday, 17 October 2026, kick-off 15:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Crewe Alexandra: 50 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season. Rochdale: 50 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season in the National League. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Rochdale is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. Against the block the other keeps: Crewe Alexandra takes 1.50 points a game, Rochdale 2.26 -- the block form is Rochdale's.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Crewe Alexandra -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 3rd of 24 after 10 games, with 18 points. Last season it finished 11th of 24 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (9th to 16th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 10 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side new to its division. Against that block it has won 1, drew 3, lost 0 of 4 -- 6 points of 12. At home against them: won 1 of 2. Away against them: won 0 of 2. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 3, drew 4, lost 8 of 15 (0.87 a game); against the middle block won 5, drew 5, lost 5 of 15 (1.33 a game); against the bottom block won 10, drew 4, lost 2 of 16 (2.12 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 3, lost 0 of 4 (1.50 a game). ### Rochdale -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 10th of 24 after 10 games, with 14 points. It was not in this division last season -- it came up from the National League, where it finished 1st of 24. - **Its block:** New to the division this season, so it takes no block from last season's final table. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (9th to 16th). Against that block it has won 13, drew 4, lost 2 of 19 -- 43 points of 57. At home against them: won 8 of 9. Away against them: won 5 of 10. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 7, drew 5, lost 3 of 15 (1.73 a game); against the middle block won 13, drew 4, lost 2 of 19 (2.26 a game); against the bottom block won 11, drew 1, lost 4 of 16 (2.12 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **-0.12 points a game is the venue form gap, in Rochdale's favour: Crewe Alexandra takes 1.76 a game at home over the last two seasons, Rochdale 1.88 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Crewe Alexandra -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 2, drew 3, lost 0 of 5, scoring 8 and conceding 5. Last season at home: won 10, drew 5, lost 5 of 20, scoring 31 and conceding 25 -- 1.75 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Swindon Town 1-0 away; beat Bristol Rovers 3-1 at home; drew with Rotherham United 1-1 away; drew with Shrewsbury Town 1-1 at home; drew with Colchester United 1-1 away. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 22 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Lee Bell. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Rochdale -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 1, drew 2, lost 2 of 5, scoring 3 and conceding 6. Last season away in the National League: won 12, drew 6, lost 2 of 20, scoring 35 and conceding 20 -- 2.10 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: drew with Tranmere Rovers 1-1 away; beat Swindon Town 1-0 at home; beat Fleetwood Town 2-1 away; beat Oldham Athletic 2-0 at home; drew with Walsall 0-0 away. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 9 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Jim McNulty. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Crewe Alexandra scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Rochdale scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Crewe Alexandra's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Rochdale is softest.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Crewe Alexandra scores most in the 76-90+ band (18 of 66); Crewe Alexandra concedes most in the 31-45+ band (14 of 59); Rochdale scores most in the 76-90+ band (21 of 87); Rochdale concedes most in the 76-90+ band (13 of 52). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Crewe Alexandra -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.6 for and 1.2 against over 25. - **When it scores:** Of 66 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 18. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 18 of 66 (27%). - **When it concedes:** Of 59 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 12. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 25 of its 50 read -- then won 15, drew 7, lost 3; conceded first in 22 -- pulled back 4 wins and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 18 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 7 of its 50 read, winning 7 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 10. ### Rochdale -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.7 and concedes 1.0 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.5 for and 1.0 against over 25. - **When it scores:** Of 87 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 14; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 18; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 21. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 21 of 87 (24%). - **When it concedes:** Of 52 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 13. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 13 of 52 (25%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 33 of its 50 read -- then won 28, drew 4, lost 1; conceded first in 14 -- pulled back 3 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 15 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 20 of its 50 read, winning 18 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 5. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 53% of their games, both teams scoring in 59%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 42%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Crewe Alexandra's numbers over its games, Rochdale's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Crewe Alexandra's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 7 (28%). In Rochdale's own 25 away matches read, 14 (56%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 42% of games. ### Crewe Alexandra -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 23 of its own 50 (46%); over 1.5 in 35 (70%); over 3.5 in 14 (28%). At home: over 2.5 in 14 of its 25 (56%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 30 of its own 50 (60%). At home: 17 of its 25 (68%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 11 of its own 50 (22%); failed to score in 12 (24%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Crewe Alexandra's own 50 matches read: Crewe Alexandra or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 15 (30%). Crewe Alexandra itself held the lead in 7, winning 7. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 7 of 25. ### Rochdale -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 30 of its own 50 (60%); over 1.5 in 40 (80%); over 3.5 in 13 (26%). Away: over 2.5 in 14 of its 25 (56%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 29 of its own 50 (58%). Away: 14 of its 25 (56%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 19 of its own 50 (38%); failed to score in 5 (10%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Rochdale's own 50 matches read: Rochdale or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 28 (56%). Rochdale itself held the lead in 20, winning 18. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 14 of 25. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Rochdale is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. Against the block the other keeps: Crewe Alexandra takes 1.50 points a game, Rochdale 2.26 -- the block form is Rochdale's. -0.12 points a game is the venue form gap, in Rochdale's favour: Crewe Alexandra takes 1.76 a game at home over the last two seasons, Rochdale 1.88 away. Crewe Alexandra scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Rochdale scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Crewe Alexandra's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Rochdale is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 53% of their games, both teams scoring in 59%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 42%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Rochdale lands the first blow more often (33 of 50 to 25 of 50); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Rochdale's -- two goals clear in 20 of 50, against 7 of 50; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Crewe Alexandra's hands -- ahead without winning in 10 of 50; Crewe Alexandra finds its goals latest of all -- 18 of its 66 after the 75th, and Rochdale concedes most in that same spell; Rochdale finds its goals latest of all -- 21 of its 87 after the 75th; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Crewe Alexandra 1.23 goals expected, Rochdale 1.46, from two seasons of scoring rates (25 home matches and 25 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: Rochdale's figures include last season in the National League, where goals came against different company. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Crewe Alexandra 3.14 (32%), the draw 3.89 (26%), Rochdale 2.36 (42%). The market's averages: 1.80, 3.70 and 3.81. The widest gap is on Rochdale: the market offers 3.81 against our 2.36. If our figures are right that is value; nothing proves they are. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 1.99 (50%), under 2.5 2.01 (50%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.81, under 2.5 1.92. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 1.85 (54%), no 2.18 (46%). The market's averages: yes 1.71, no 1.99. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Crewe Alexandra's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 7 (28%). In Rochdale's own 25 away matches read, 14 (56%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 42% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/league-two/2026-10-17/crewe-alexandra-v-rochdale/halftime/ Built 2026-10-16T02:23:38+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.