# Tamworth v Worthing — the Match Wizard National League, game week 4 — Friday, 28 August 2026, kick-off 19:45 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Tamworth: 49 league matches in the bank, 3 from this season and the rest from last season. Worthing: 3 league matches in the bank. Look and learn: it is early in the season, so nearly everything counted here was earned last season -- by squads and dugouts a summer window may have reshaped. Treat the first five weeks as pointers while the new shapes settle, not proof. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Worthing is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Tamworth -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 22nd of 24 after 3 games, with 1 point -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 11th of 24 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (9th to 16th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 3 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side new to its division. Against that block it has won 0, drew 0, lost 1 of 1. At home against them: won 0 of 1. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 5, drew 2, lost 11 of 18 (0.94 a game); against the middle block won 4, drew 4, lost 6 of 14 (1.14 a game); against the bottom block won 8, drew 6, lost 2 of 16 (1.88 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 0, lost 1 of 1 (0.00 a game). ### Worthing -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 8th of 24 after 3 games, with 6 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it played outside the leagues we cover, so we hold no standing for it. - **Its block:** New to the division this season, so it takes no block from last season's final table. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (9th to 16th). Against that block it has won 1, drew 0, lost 0 of 1. At home against them: won 1 of 1. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 1, drew 0, lost 1 of 2 (1.50 a game); against the middle block won 1, drew 0, lost 0 of 1 (3.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **-1.42 points a game is the venue form gap, in Worthing's favour: Tamworth takes 1.58 a game at home over the last two seasons, Worthing 3.00 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Tamworth -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 0, drew 0, lost 1 of 1, scoring 1 and conceding 2. Last season at home: won 11, drew 5, lost 7 of 23, scoring 34 and conceding 24 -- 1.65 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Halifax Town 1-4 away; lost to Fylde 1-2 at home; drew with Boreham Wood 3-3 away; beat Braintree Town 5-1 at home; drew with Eastleigh 1-1 away. The last 2 of these are from last season. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 20 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Andy Peaks. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Worthing -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 1, drew 0, lost 0 of 1, scoring 3 and conceding 2. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Wealdstone 1-0 at home; lost to Forest Green Rovers 1-2 at home; beat Carlisle United 3-2 away. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 3 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Adam Hinshelwood. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Tamworth scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Worthing scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Tamworth's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Worthing is softest.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Tamworth scores most in the 76-90+ band (16 of 68); Tamworth concedes most in the 46-60 band (20 of 80); Worthing scores most in the 76-90+ band (2 of 5); Worthing concedes most in the 76-90+ band (2 of 4). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Tamworth -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.6 a game over its last 49 league matches; at home, 1.5 for and 1.1 against over 24. - **When it scores:** Of 68 scored across its own 49 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 13; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 14; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 68 (24%). - **When it concedes:** Of 80 conceded across its own 49 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 13; 31-45+: 18; 46-60: 20; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 12. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 22 of its 49 read -- then won 13, drew 5, lost 4; conceded first in 25 -- pulled back 4 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 19 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 6 of its 49 read, winning 6 of them; trailed by two in 12, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 10. ### Worthing -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.7 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 3 league matches; away, 3.0 for and 2.0 against over 1. - **When it scores:** Of 5 scored across its own 3 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 1; 16-30: 0; 31-45+: 1; 46-60: 0; 61-75: 1; 76-90+: 2. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 2 of 5 (40%). - **When it concedes:** Of 4 conceded across its own 3 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 0; 16-30: 0; 31-45+: 1; 46-60: 1; 61-75: 0; 76-90+: 2. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 2 of 4 (50%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 2 of its 3 read -- then won 1, drew 0, lost 1; conceded first in 1 -- pulled back 1 win and 0 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 3 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 1 of its 3 read, winning 1 of them; was ahead at some point without winning in 1. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 62% of their games, both teams scoring in 68%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 67%. On the record this leans a goals match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Tamworth's numbers over its games, Worthing's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Tamworth's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 8 (33%). In Worthing's own 1 away matches read, 1 (100%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 67% of games. ### Tamworth -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 28 of its own 49 (57%); over 1.5 in 39 (80%); over 3.5 in 17 (35%). At home: over 2.5 in 10 of its 24 (42%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 34 of its own 49 (69%). At home: 15 of its 24 (62%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 8 of its own 49 (16%); failed to score in 9 (18%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Tamworth's own 49 matches read: Tamworth or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 18 (37%). Tamworth itself held the lead in 6, winning 6. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 8 of 24. ### Worthing -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 2 of its own 3 (67%); over 1.5 in 2 (67%); over 3.5 in 1 (33%). Away: over 2.5 in 1 of its 1 (100%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 2 of its own 3 (67%). Away: 1 of its 1 (100%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 1 of its own 3 (33%); failed to score in 0 (0%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Worthing's own 3 matches read: Worthing or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 1 (33%). Worthing itself held the lead in 1, winning 1. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 1 of 1. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Worthing is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. -1.42 points a game is the venue form gap, in Worthing's favour: Tamworth takes 1.58 a game at home over the last two seasons, Worthing 3.00 away. Tamworth scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Worthing scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Tamworth's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Worthing is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 62% of their games, both teams scoring in 68%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 67%. On the record this leans a goals match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Worthing lands the first blow more often (2 of 3 to 22 of 49); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Worthing's -- two goals clear in 1 of 3, against 6 of 49; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Tamworth's hands -- ahead without winning in 10 of 49; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Worthing's hands -- ahead without winning in 1 of 3; Tamworth finds its goals latest of all -- 16 of its 68 after the 75th, and Worthing concedes most in that same spell; Worthing finds its goals latest of all -- 2 of its 5 after the 75th; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Tamworth 1.54 goals expected, Worthing 1.34, from two seasons of scoring rates (24 home matches and 1 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Tamworth 2.37 (42%), the draw 4.04 (25%), Worthing 3.02 (33%). The market's averages: 1.99, 3.70 and 2.95. The widest gap is on Tamworth: the market is shorter (1.99) than our 2.37 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 1.82 (55%), under 2.5 2.21 (45%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.57, under 2.5 2.26. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 1.73 (58%), no 2.37 (42%). The market's averages: yes 1.50, no 2.23. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Tamworth's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 8 (33%). In Worthing's own 1 away matches read, 1 (100%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 67% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/national-league/2026-08-28/tamworth-v-worthing/halftime/ Built 2026-08-25T23:02:22+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.