# Southend United v Yeovil Town — the Match Wizard National League, game week 6 — Saturday, 5 September 2026, kick-off 12:30 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Southend United: 50 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season. Yeovil Town: 50 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **The table makes Southend United the bigger side: 6th against 16th of 24 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Southend United takes 1.56 points a game, Yeovil Town 0.28 -- the block form is Southend United's.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Southend United -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 7th of 24 after 5 games, with 10 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 6th of 24 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the top block (1st to 8th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 5 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (9th to 16th). Against that block it has won 7, drew 7, lost 4 of 18 -- 28 points of 54. At home against them: won 3 of 7. Away against them: won 4 of 11. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 5, drew 4, lost 7 of 16 (1.19 a game); against the middle block won 7, drew 7, lost 4 of 18 (1.56 a game); against the bottom block won 12, drew 2, lost 1 of 15 (2.53 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 0, lost 1 of 1 (0.00 a game). ### Yeovil Town -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 4th of 24 after 5 games, with 11 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 16th of 24 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (9th to 16th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 5 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the top block (1st to 8th). Against that block it has won 0, drew 5, lost 13 of 18 -- 5 points of 54. At home against them: won 0 of 9. Away against them: won 0 of 9. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 0, drew 5, lost 13 of 18 (0.28 a game); against the middle block won 9, drew 0, lost 5 of 14 (1.93 a game); against the bottom block won 8, drew 2, lost 7 of 17 (1.53 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 0 of 1 (3.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+1.00 points a game is the venue form gap, in Southend United's favour: Southend United takes 1.92 a game at home over the last two seasons, Yeovil Town 0.92 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Southend United -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 1, drew 0, lost 1 of 2, scoring 2 and conceding 3. Last season at home: won 12, drew 7, lost 3 of 22, scoring 39 and conceding 19 -- 1.95 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: drew with Woking 1-1 away; lost to Kidderminster Harriers 1-3 at home; beat Solihull Moors 3-1 away; beat Scunthorpe United 1-0 at home; beat Altrincham 3-1 away. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 19 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Kevin Maher. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Yeovil Town -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 1, drew 1, lost 0 of 2, scoring 3 and conceding 2. Last season away: won 6, drew 1, lost 16 of 23, scoring 21 and conceding 34 -- 0.83 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Tamworth 3-2 at home; beat Barrow 2-1 away; beat Gateshead 3-0 at home; drew with Carlisle United 1-1 at home; drew with Scunthorpe United 1-1 away. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 10 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Mark Cooper. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Southend United scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 61-75; Yeovil Town scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 61-75.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Southend United scores most in the 76-90+ band (27 of 87); Southend United concedes most in the 61-75 band (13 of 54); Yeovil Town scores most in the 76-90+ band (17 of 58); Yeovil Town concedes most in the 61-75 band (17 of 73). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Southend United -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.7 and concedes 1.1 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.7 for and 0.9 against over 24. - **When it scores:** Of 87 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 16; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 27. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 27 of 87 (31%). - **When it concedes:** Of 54 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 10. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 31 of its 50 read -- then won 22, drew 5, lost 4; conceded first in 17 -- pulled back 2 wins and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 13 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 17 of its 50 read, winning 17 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 9. ### Yeovil Town -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.0 for and 1.4 against over 25. - **When it scores:** Of 58 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 58 (29%). - **When it concedes:** Of 73 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 17; 76-90+: 16. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 24 of its 50 read -- then won 17, drew 4, lost 3; conceded first in 24 -- pulled back 1 win and 1 draw from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 7 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 11 of its 50 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 12, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 8. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 52% of their games, both teams scoring in 54%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 47%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Southend United's numbers over its games, Yeovil Town's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Southend United's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 14 (58%). In Yeovil Town's own 25 away matches read, 9 (36%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 47% of games. ### Southend United -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 26 of its own 50 (52%); over 1.5 in 40 (80%); over 3.5 in 12 (24%). At home: over 2.5 in 11 of its 24 (46%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 29 of its own 50 (58%). At home: 13 of its 24 (54%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 16 of its own 50 (32%); failed to score in 7 (14%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Southend United's own 50 matches read: Southend United or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 25 (50%). Southend United itself held the lead in 17, winning 17. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 14 of 24. ### Yeovil Town -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 26 of its own 50 (52%); over 1.5 in 37 (74%); over 3.5 in 10 (20%). Away: over 2.5 in 13 of its 25 (52%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 25 of its own 50 (50%). Away: 11 of its 25 (44%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 11 of its own 50 (22%); failed to score in 16 (32%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Yeovil Town's own 50 matches read: Yeovil Town or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 23 (46%). Yeovil Town itself held the lead in 11, winning 10. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 9 of 25. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **The table makes Southend United the bigger side: 6th against 16th of 24 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Southend United takes 1.56 points a game, Yeovil Town 0.28 -- the block form is Southend United's. +1.00 points a game is the venue form gap, in Southend United's favour: Southend United takes 1.92 a game at home over the last two seasons, Yeovil Town 0.92 away. Southend United scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 61-75; Yeovil Town scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 61-75. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 52% of their games, both teams scoring in 54%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 47%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Southend United lands the first blow more often (31 of 50 to 24 of 50); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Southend United's -- two goals clear in 17 of 50, against 11 of 50; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Southend United's hands -- ahead without winning in 9 of 50; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Yeovil Town's hands -- ahead without winning in 8 of 50; Southend United finds its goals latest of all -- 27 of its 87 after the 75th; Yeovil Town finds its goals latest of all -- 17 of its 58 after the 75th. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Southend United 1.56 goals expected, Yeovil Town 0.77, from two seasons of scoring rates (24 home matches and 25 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Southend United 1.78 (56%), the draw 3.93 (25%), Yeovil Town 5.40 (19%). The market's averages: 1.55, 3.80 and 4.80. The widest gap is on Southend United: the market is shorter (1.55) than our 1.78 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 2.42 (41%), under 2.5 1.70 (59%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.69, under 2.5 2.04. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 2.35 (43%), no 1.74 (57%). The market's averages: yes 1.80, no 1.95. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Southend United's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 14 (58%). In Yeovil Town's own 25 away matches read, 9 (36%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 47% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/national-league/2026-09-05/southend-united-v-yeovil-town/halftime/ Built 2026-09-05T05:08:55+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.