# Tamworth v Boston United — the Match Wizard National League, game week 6 — Saturday, 5 September 2026, kick-off 15:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Tamworth: 50 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season. Boston United: 50 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Tamworth and Boston United finished near neighbours last season -- 11th and 12th of 24 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Tamworth takes 1.07 points a game, Boston United 1.69 -- the block form is Boston United's.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Tamworth -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 20th of 24 after 5 games, with 4 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 11th of 24 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (9th to 16th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 5 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (9th to 16th). Against that block it has won 4, drew 4, lost 7 of 15 -- 16 points of 45. At home against them: won 3 of 7. Away against them: won 1 of 8. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 5, drew 2, lost 10 of 17 (1.00 a game); against the middle block won 4, drew 4, lost 7 of 15 (1.07 a game); against the bottom block won 8, drew 6, lost 2 of 16 (1.88 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 1 of 2 (1.50 a game). ### Boston United -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 14th of 24 after 5 games, with 6 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 12th of 24 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (9th to 16th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 5 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (9th to 16th). Against that block it has won 7, drew 6, lost 3 of 16 -- 27 points of 48. At home against them: won 4 of 8. Away against them: won 3 of 8. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 3, drew 5, lost 9 of 17 (0.82 a game); against the middle block won 7, drew 6, lost 3 of 16 (1.69 a game); against the bottom block won 6, drew 3, lost 7 of 16 (1.31 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 0, lost 1 of 1 (0.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+0.38 points a game is the venue form gap, in Tamworth's favour: Tamworth takes 1.71 a game at home over the last two seasons, Boston United 1.33 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Tamworth -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 1, drew 0, lost 1 of 2, scoring 4 and conceding 4. Last season at home: won 11, drew 5, lost 6 of 22, scoring 33 and conceding 22 -- 1.73 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Yeovil Town 2-3 away; beat Worthing 3-2 at home; lost to Halifax Town 1-4 away; lost to Fylde 1-2 at home; drew with Boreham Wood 3-3 away. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 21 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Andy Peaks. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Boston United -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 1, drew 0, lost 1 of 2, scoring 3 and conceding 2. Last season away: won 7, drew 8, lost 7 of 22, scoring 35 and conceding 33 -- 1.32 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to AFC Hornchurch 2-3 at home; lost to Boreham Wood 1-2 away; beat Altrincham 1-0 at home; beat Solihull Moors 2-0 away; lost to Aldershot Town 0-1 at home. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 21 matches with one recorded (12, 9 apiece), most recently Paul Hurst with 12. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Tamworth scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Boston United scores heaviest in 46-60 and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Tamworth's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Boston United is softest.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Tamworth scores most in the 76-90+ band (18 of 72); Tamworth concedes most in the 46-60 band (21 of 83); Boston United scores most in the 46-60 band (16 of 66); Boston United concedes most in the 76-90+ band (22 of 71). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Tamworth -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.7 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.5 for and 1.1 against over 24. - **When it scores:** Of 72 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 13; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 15; 76-90+: 18. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 18 of 72 (25%). - **When it concedes:** Of 83 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 14; 31-45+: 18; 46-60: 21; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 12. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 22 of its 50 read -- then won 13, drew 5, lost 4; conceded first in 26 -- pulled back 5 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 22 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 6 of its 50 read, winning 6 of them; trailed by two in 13, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 10. ### Boston United -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.6 for and 1.5 against over 24. - **When it scores:** Of 66 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 16; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 15. - **When it concedes:** Of 71 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 22. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 22 of 71 (31%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 21 of its 50 read -- then won 12, drew 5, lost 4; conceded first in 26 -- pulled back 4 wins and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 19 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 10 of its 50 read, winning 9 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 12. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 55% of their games, both teams scoring in 64%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 40%. On the record this leans a goals match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Tamworth's numbers over its games, Boston United's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Tamworth's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 8 (33%). In Boston United's own 24 away matches read, 11 (46%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 40% of games. ### Tamworth -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 29 of its own 50 (58%); over 1.5 in 40 (80%); over 3.5 in 19 (38%). At home: over 2.5 in 10 of its 24 (42%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 35 of its own 50 (70%). At home: 15 of its 24 (62%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 8 of its own 50 (16%); failed to score in 9 (18%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Tamworth's own 50 matches read: Tamworth or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 19 (38%). Tamworth itself held the lead in 6, winning 6. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 8 of 24. ### Boston United -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 26 of its own 50 (52%); over 1.5 in 38 (76%); over 3.5 in 13 (26%). Away: over 2.5 in 13 of its 24 (54%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 29 of its own 50 (58%). Away: 16 of its 24 (67%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 11 of its own 50 (22%); failed to score in 13 (26%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Boston United's own 50 matches read: Boston United or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 18 (36%). Boston United itself held the lead in 10, winning 9. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 11 of 24. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Tamworth and Boston United finished near neighbours last season -- 11th and 12th of 24 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Tamworth takes 1.07 points a game, Boston United 1.69 -- the block form is Boston United's. +0.38 points a game is the venue form gap, in Tamworth's favour: Tamworth takes 1.71 a game at home over the last two seasons, Boston United 1.33 away. Tamworth scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Boston United scores heaviest in 46-60 and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Tamworth's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Boston United is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 55% of their games, both teams scoring in 64%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 40%. On the record this leans a goals match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (22 of 50 and 21 of 50); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Boston United's -- two goals clear in 10 of 50, against 6 of 50; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Tamworth's hands -- ahead without winning in 10 of 50; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Boston United's hands -- ahead without winning in 12 of 50; Tamworth finds its goals latest of all -- 18 of its 72 after the 75th, and Boston United concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Tamworth 1.45 goals expected, Boston United 1.30, from two seasons of scoring rates (24 home matches and 24 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Tamworth 2.46 (41%), the draw 3.93 (25%), Boston United 2.95 (34%). The market's averages: 2.05, 3.40 and 2.90. The widest gap is on Tamworth: the market is shorter (2.05) than our 2.46 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 1.92 (52%), under 2.5 2.08 (48%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.57, under 2.5 2.21. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 1.79 (56%), no 2.26 (44%). The market's averages: yes 1.47, no 2.42. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Tamworth's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 8 (33%). In Boston United's own 24 away matches read, 11 (46%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 40% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/national-league/2026-09-05/tamworth-v-boston-united/halftime/ Built 2026-09-05T05:10:18+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.