# Southend United v Tamworth — the Match Wizard National League, game week 8 — Tuesday, 15 September 2026, kick-off 19:45 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Southend United: 50 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season. Tamworth: 50 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **The table makes Southend United the bigger side: 6th against 11th of 24 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Southend United takes 1.63 points a game, Tamworth 1.06 -- the block form is Southend United's.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Southend United -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 6th of 24 after 7 games, with 14 points. Last season it finished 6th of 24 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the top block (1st to 8th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 7 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (9th to 16th). Against that block it has won 8, drew 7, lost 4 of 19 -- 31 points of 57. At home against them: won 4 of 8. Away against them: won 4 of 11. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 5, drew 4, lost 7 of 16 (1.19 a game); against the middle block won 8, drew 7, lost 4 of 19 (1.63 a game); against the bottom block won 11, drew 2, lost 1 of 14 (2.50 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 0, lost 1 of 1 (0.00 a game). ### Tamworth -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 22nd of 24 after 7 games, with 5 points. Last season it finished 11th of 24 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (9th to 16th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 7 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the top block (1st to 8th). Against that block it has won 5, drew 2, lost 9 of 16 -- 17 points of 48. At home against them: won 4 of 7. Away against them: won 1 of 9. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 5, drew 2, lost 9 of 16 (1.06 a game); against the middle block won 4, drew 5, lost 7 of 16 (1.06 a game); against the bottom block won 7, drew 6, lost 2 of 15 (1.80 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 2 of 3 (1.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+1.04 points a game is the venue form gap, in Southend United's favour: Southend United takes 2.00 a game at home over the last two seasons, Tamworth 0.96 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Southend United -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 2, drew 0, lost 1 of 3, scoring 5 and conceding 5. Last season at home: won 12, drew 6, lost 3 of 21, scoring 39 and conceding 19 -- 2.00 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: drew with Carlisle United 2-2 away; beat Yeovil Town 3-2 at home; drew with Woking 1-1 away; lost to Kidderminster Harriers 1-3 at home; beat Solihull Moors 3-1 away. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 17 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Kevin Maher. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Tamworth -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 0, drew 1, lost 3 of 4, scoring 7 and conceding 13. Last season away: won 6, drew 6, lost 10 of 22, scoring 29 and conceding 45 -- 1.09 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Harrogate Town 1-3 away; drew with Boston United 2-2 at home; lost to Yeovil Town 2-3 away; beat Worthing 3-2 at home; lost to Halifax Town 1-4 away. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 21 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Andy Peaks. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Southend United scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 61-75; Tamworth scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 46-60.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Southend United scores most in the 76-90+ band (31 of 91); Southend United concedes most in the 61-75 band (13 of 58); Tamworth scores most in the 76-90+ band (18 of 73); Tamworth concedes most in the 46-60 band (21 of 86). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Southend United -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.8 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.8 for and 1.0 against over 24. - **When it scores:** Of 91 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 16; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 31. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 31 of 91 (34%). - **When it concedes:** Of 58 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 11. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 30 of its 50 read -- then won 21, drew 5, lost 4; conceded first in 19 -- pulled back 3 wins and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 17 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 17 of its 50 read, winning 17 of them; trailed by two in 9, rescuing 3 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 10. ### Tamworth -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.5 and concedes 1.7 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.4 for and 2.2 against over 26. - **When it scores:** Of 73 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 15; 76-90+: 18. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 18 of 73 (25%). - **When it concedes:** Of 86 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 15; 31-45+: 20; 46-60: 21; 61-75: 15; 76-90+: 11. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 23 of its 50 read -- then won 12, drew 6, lost 5; conceded first in 25 -- pulled back 5 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 22 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 5 of its 50 read, winning 5 of them; trailed by two in 13, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 12. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 59% of their games, both teams scoring in 68%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 52%. On the record this leans a goals match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Southend United's numbers over its games, Tamworth's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Southend United's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 15 (62%). In Tamworth's own 26 away matches read, 11 (42%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 52% of games. ### Southend United -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 28 of its own 50 (56%); over 1.5 in 42 (84%); over 3.5 in 14 (28%). At home: over 2.5 in 12 of its 24 (50%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 31 of its own 50 (62%). At home: 14 of its 24 (58%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 14 of its own 50 (28%); failed to score in 6 (12%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Southend United's own 50 matches read: Southend United or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 26 (52%). Southend United itself held the lead in 17, winning 17. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 15 of 24. ### Tamworth -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 31 of its own 50 (62%); over 1.5 in 40 (80%); over 3.5 in 21 (42%). Away: over 2.5 in 20 of its 26 (77%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 37 of its own 50 (74%). Away: 21 of its 26 (81%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 7 of its own 50 (14%); failed to score in 8 (16%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Tamworth's own 50 matches read: Tamworth or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 18 (36%). Tamworth itself held the lead in 5, winning 5. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 11 of 26. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **The table makes Southend United the bigger side: 6th against 11th of 24 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Southend United takes 1.63 points a game, Tamworth 1.06 -- the block form is Southend United's. +1.04 points a game is the venue form gap, in Southend United's favour: Southend United takes 2.00 a game at home over the last two seasons, Tamworth 0.96 away. Southend United scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 61-75; Tamworth scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 46-60. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 59% of their games, both teams scoring in 68%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 52%. On the record this leans a goals match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Southend United lands the first blow more often (30 of 50 to 23 of 50); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Southend United's -- two goals clear in 17 of 50, against 5 of 50; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Southend United's hands -- ahead without winning in 10 of 50; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Tamworth's hands -- ahead without winning in 12 of 50; Southend United finds its goals latest of all -- 31 of its 91 after the 75th; Tamworth finds its goals latest of all -- 18 of its 73 after the 75th. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Southend United 2.38 goals expected, Tamworth 1.10, from two seasons of scoring rates (24 home matches and 26 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Southend United 1.52 (66%), the draw 5.47 (18%), Tamworth 6.22 (16%). The market's averages: 1.54, 4.50 and 5.00. The widest gap is on Tamworth: the market is shorter (5.00) than our 6.22 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 1.48 (67%), under 2.5 3.07 (33%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.40, under 2.5 2.52. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 1.65 (61%), no 2.53 (39%). The market's averages: yes 1.50, no 2.38. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Southend United's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 15 (62%). In Tamworth's own 26 away matches read, 11 (42%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 52% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/national-league/2026-09-15/southend-united-v-tamworth/halftime/ Built 2026-09-15T06:02:59+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.