# Worthing v AFC Hornchurch — the Match Wizard National League, game week 8 — Tuesday, 15 September 2026, kick-off 19:45 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Worthing: 7 league matches in the bank. AFC Hornchurch: 7 league matches in the bank. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Worthing is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Worthing -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 16th of 24 after 7 games, with 8 points. Last season it played outside the leagues we cover, so we hold no standing for it. - **Its block:** New to the division this season, so it takes no block from last season's final table. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side new to its division. Against that block it has won 0, drew 2, lost 0 of 2. At home against them: won 0 of 1. Away against them: won 0 of 1. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 1, drew 0, lost 2 of 3 (1.00 a game); against the middle block won 1, drew 0, lost 1 of 2 (1.50 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 2, lost 0 of 2 (1.00 a game). ### AFC Hornchurch -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 9th of 24 after 7 games, with 12 points. Last season it played outside the leagues we cover, so we hold no standing for it. - **Its block:** New to the division this season, so it takes no block from last season's final table. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side new to its division. Against that block it has won 2, drew 0, lost 0 of 2. At home against them: won 1 of 1. Away against them: won 1 of 1. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 0, drew 0, lost 3 of 3 (0.00 a game); against the middle block won 2, drew 0, lost 0 of 2 (3.00 a game); against sides new to the division won 2, drew 0, lost 0 of 2 (3.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **-0.50 points a game is the venue form gap, in AFC Hornchurch's favour: Worthing takes 1.00 a game at home over the last two seasons, AFC Hornchurch 1.50 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Worthing -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 1, drew 1, lost 2 of 4, scoring 6 and conceding 7. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: drew with Barrow 2-2 at home; drew with Fylde 2-2 away; lost to Boreham Wood 2-3 at home; lost to Tamworth 2-3 away; beat Wealdstone 1-0 at home. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 7 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Adam Hinshelwood. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### AFC Hornchurch -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 2, drew 0, lost 2 of 4, scoring 6 and conceding 10. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Halifax Town 0-3 away; lost to Forest Green Rovers 0-1 at home; beat Boston United 3-2 away; beat Woking 1-0 at home; lost to Carlisle United 1-4 away. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 7 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Daryl McMahon. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Worthing scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; AFC Hornchurch scores heaviest in 16-30 and concedes heaviest in 31-45+.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Worthing scores most in the 76-90+ band (4 of 13); Worthing concedes most in the 76-90+ band (6 of 14); AFC Hornchurch scores most in the 16-30 band (2 of 10); AFC Hornchurch concedes most in the 31-45+ band (3 of 11). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Worthing -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.9 and concedes 2.0 a game over its last 7 league matches; at home, 1.5 for and 1.8 against over 4. - **When it scores:** Of 13 scored across its own 7 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 1; 16-30: 2; 31-45+: 2; 46-60: 1; 61-75: 3; 76-90+: 4. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 4 of 13 (31%). - **When it concedes:** Of 14 conceded across its own 7 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 0; 16-30: 1; 31-45+: 2; 46-60: 3; 61-75: 2; 76-90+: 6. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 6 of 14 (43%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 5 of its 7 read -- then won 1, drew 1, lost 3; conceded first in 2 -- pulled back 1 win and 1 draw from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 5 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 1 of its 7 read, winning 1 of them; trailed by two in 2, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 4. ### AFC Hornchurch -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.6 a game over its last 7 league matches; away, 1.5 for and 2.5 against over 4. - **When it scores:** Of 10 scored across its own 7 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 0; 16-30: 2; 31-45+: 2; 46-60: 2; 61-75: 2; 76-90+: 2. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 2 of 10 (20%). - **When it concedes:** Of 11 conceded across its own 7 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 1; 16-30: 1; 31-45+: 3; 46-60: 1; 61-75: 3; 76-90+: 2. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 3 of its 7 read -- then won 3, drew 0, lost 0; conceded first in 4 -- pulled back 1 win and 0 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 3 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 2 of its 7 read, winning 2 of them; trailed by two in 2, rescuing nothing. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 79% of their games, both teams scoring in 64%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 62%. On the record this leans a goals match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Worthing's numbers over its games, AFC Hornchurch's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Worthing's own 4 home matches read, one appeared in 2 (50%). In AFC Hornchurch's own 4 away matches read, 3 (75%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 62% of games. ### Worthing -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 6 of its own 7 (86%); over 1.5 in 6 (86%); over 3.5 in 5 (71%). At home: over 2.5 in 3 of its 4 (75%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 6 of its own 7 (86%). At home: 3 of its 4 (75%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 1 of its own 7 (14%); failed to score in 0 (0%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Worthing's own 7 matches read: Worthing or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 3 (43%). Worthing itself held the lead in 1, winning 1. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 2 of 4. ### AFC Hornchurch -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 5 of its own 7 (71%); over 1.5 in 5 (71%); over 3.5 in 2 (29%). Away: over 2.5 in 4 of its 4 (100%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 3 of its own 7 (43%). Away: 3 of its 4 (75%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 2 of its own 7 (29%); failed to score in 2 (29%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over AFC Hornchurch's own 7 matches read: AFC Hornchurch or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 4 (57%). AFC Hornchurch itself held the lead in 2, winning 2. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 3 of 4. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Worthing is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. -0.50 points a game is the venue form gap, in AFC Hornchurch's favour: Worthing takes 1.00 a game at home over the last two seasons, AFC Hornchurch 1.50 away. Worthing scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; AFC Hornchurch scores heaviest in 16-30 and concedes heaviest in 31-45+. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 79% of their games, both teams scoring in 64%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 62%. On the record this leans a goals match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Worthing lands the first blow more often (5 of 7 to 3 of 7); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often AFC Hornchurch's -- two goals clear in 2 of 7, against 1 of 7; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Worthing's hands -- ahead without winning in 4 of 7; Worthing finds its goals latest of all -- 4 of its 13 after the 75th. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Worthing 1.91 goals expected, AFC Hornchurch 1.57, from two seasons of scoring rates (4 home matches and 4 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Worthing 2.18 (46%), the draw 4.54 (22%), AFC Hornchurch 3.11 (32%). The market's averages: 2.10, 3.70 and 2.87. The widest gap is on the draw: the market is shorter (3.70) than our 4.54 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 1.48 (68%), under 2.5 3.09 (32%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.57, under 2.5 2.40. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 1.48 (68%), no 3.08 (32%). The market's averages: yes 1.50, no 2.45. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Worthing's own 4 home matches read, one appeared in 2 (50%). In AFC Hornchurch's own 4 away matches read, 3 (75%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 62% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/national-league/2026-09-15/worthing-v-afc-hornchurch/halftime/ Built 2026-09-15T06:03:01+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.