# Aldershot Town v Tamworth — the Match Wizard National League, game week 10 — Saturday, 26 September 2026, kick-off 15:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Aldershot Town: 50 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season. Tamworth: 50 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **The table makes Tamworth the bigger side: 11th against 20th of 24 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Aldershot Town takes 1.53 points a game, Tamworth 2.00 -- the block form is Tamworth's.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Aldershot Town -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 8th of 24 after 9 games, with 15 points. Last season it finished 20th of 24 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the bottom block (17th to 24th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 9 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (9th to 16th). Against that block it has won 8, drew 2, lost 7 of 17 -- 26 points of 51. At home against them: won 3 of 9. Away against them: won 5 of 8. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 1, lost 14 of 17 (0.41 a game); against the middle block won 8, drew 2, lost 7 of 17 (1.53 a game); against the bottom block won 3, drew 7, lost 3 of 13 (1.23 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 1, lost 1 of 3 (1.33 a game). ### Tamworth -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 21st of 24 after 9 games, with 8 points. Last season it finished 11th of 24 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (9th to 16th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 9 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the bottom block (17th to 24th). Against that block it has won 7, drew 5, lost 1 of 13 -- 26 points of 39. At home against them: won 3 of 6. Away against them: won 4 of 7. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 5, drew 2, lost 10 of 17 (1.00 a game); against the middle block won 5, drew 5, lost 7 of 17 (1.18 a game); against the bottom block won 7, drew 5, lost 1 of 13 (2.00 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 2 of 3 (1.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **-0.00 points a game is the venue form gap, in Tamworth's favour: Aldershot Town takes 0.96 a game at home over the last two seasons, Tamworth 0.96 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Aldershot Town -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 2, drew 1, lost 1 of 4, scoring 5 and conceding 3. Last season at home: won 4, drew 4, lost 12 of 20, scoring 24 and conceding 40 -- 0.80 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Barrow 0-1 away; drew with Yeovil Town 1-1 at home; beat Solihull Moors 2-1 away; beat Halifax Town 1-0 at home; drew with Eastleigh 1-1 away. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 3 different managers took its 21 matches with one recorded (9, 6, 6 apiece), most recently Scott Myles Davies with 9. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Tamworth -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 0, drew 1, lost 4 of 5, scoring 8 and conceding 16. Last season away: won 6, drew 6, lost 9 of 21, scoring 28 and conceding 43 -- 1.14 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Wealdstone 2-1 at home; lost to Southend United 1-3 away; lost to Harrogate Town 1-3 away; drew with Boston United 2-2 at home; lost to Yeovil Town 2-3 away. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 21 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Andy Peaks. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Aldershot Town scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 61-75; Tamworth scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 46-60.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Aldershot Town scores most in the 76-90+ band (18 of 63); Aldershot Town concedes most in the 61-75 band (17 of 84); Tamworth scores most in the 76-90+ band (18 of 74); Tamworth concedes most in the 46-60 band (21 of 87). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Aldershot Town -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.7 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.2 for and 1.8 against over 24. - **When it scores:** Of 63 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 4; 61-75: 14; 76-90+: 18. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 18 of 63 (29%). - **When it concedes:** Of 84 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 13; 16-30: 16; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 17; 76-90+: 12. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 20 of its 50 read -- then won 12, drew 5, lost 3; conceded first in 29 -- pulled back 2 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 13 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 8 of its 50 read, winning 7 of them; trailed by two in 18, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 9. ### Tamworth -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.5 and concedes 1.7 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.4 for and 2.3 against over 26. - **When it scores:** Of 74 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 17; 76-90+: 18. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 18 of 74 (24%). - **When it concedes:** Of 87 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 14; 31-45+: 20; 46-60: 21; 61-75: 15; 76-90+: 12. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 22 of its 50 read -- then won 12, drew 5, lost 5; conceded first in 26 -- pulled back 6 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 25 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 5 of its 50 read, winning 5 of them; trailed by two in 13, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 11. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 61% of their games, both teams scoring in 67%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 50%. On the record this leans a goals match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Aldershot Town's numbers over its games, Tamworth's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Aldershot Town's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 14 (58%). In Tamworth's own 26 away matches read, 11 (42%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 50% of games. ### Aldershot Town -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 29 of its own 50 (58%); over 1.5 in 41 (82%); over 3.5 in 15 (30%). At home: over 2.5 in 14 of its 24 (58%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 30 of its own 50 (60%). At home: 15 of its 24 (62%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 7 of its own 50 (14%); failed to score in 14 (28%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Aldershot Town's own 50 matches read: Aldershot Town or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 26 (52%). Aldershot Town itself held the lead in 8, winning 7. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 14 of 24. ### Tamworth -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 32 of its own 50 (64%); over 1.5 in 40 (80%); over 3.5 in 22 (44%). Away: over 2.5 in 20 of its 26 (77%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 37 of its own 50 (74%). Away: 21 of its 26 (81%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 7 of its own 50 (14%); failed to score in 8 (16%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Tamworth's own 50 matches read: Tamworth or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 18 (36%). Tamworth itself held the lead in 5, winning 5. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 11 of 26. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **The table makes Tamworth the bigger side: 11th against 20th of 24 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Aldershot Town takes 1.53 points a game, Tamworth 2.00 -- the block form is Tamworth's. -0.00 points a game is the venue form gap, in Tamworth's favour: Aldershot Town takes 0.96 a game at home over the last two seasons, Tamworth 0.96 away. Aldershot Town scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 61-75; Tamworth scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 46-60. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 61% of their games, both teams scoring in 67%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 50%. On the record this leans a goals match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (20 of 50 and 22 of 50); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Aldershot Town's hands -- ahead without winning in 9 of 50; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Tamworth's hands -- ahead without winning in 11 of 50; Aldershot Town finds its goals latest of all -- 18 of its 63 after the 75th; Tamworth finds its goals latest of all -- 18 of its 74 after the 75th. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Aldershot Town 1.73 goals expected, Tamworth 1.75, from two seasons of scoring rates (24 home matches and 26 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Aldershot Town 2.60 (38%), the draw 4.48 (22%), Tamworth 2.55 (39%). The market's averages: 1.95, 3.68 and 3.12. The widest gap is on Aldershot Town: the market is shorter (1.95) than our 2.60 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 1.48 (68%), under 2.5 3.10 (32%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.53, under 2.5 2.44. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 1.47 (68%), no 3.14 (32%). The market's averages: yes 1.43, no 2.59. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Aldershot Town's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 14 (58%). In Tamworth's own 26 away matches read, 11 (42%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 50% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/national-league/2026-09-26/aldershot-town-v-tamworth/halftime/ Built 2026-09-23T23:05:23+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.