# Worthing v Halifax Town — the Match Wizard National League, game week 10 — Saturday, 26 September 2026, kick-off 15:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Worthing: 9 league matches in the bank. Halifax Town: 50 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Worthing is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Worthing -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 11th of 24 after 9 games, with 14 points. Last season it played outside the leagues we cover, so we hold no standing for it. - **Its block:** New to the division this season, so it takes no block from last season's final table. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the top block (1st to 8th). Against that block it has won 1, drew 0, lost 2 of 3 -- 3 points of 9. At home against them: won 0 of 2. Away against them: won 1 of 1. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 1, drew 0, lost 2 of 3 (1.00 a game); against the middle block won 2, drew 0, lost 1 of 3 (2.00 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 2, lost 0 of 3 (1.67 a game). ### Halifax Town -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 13th of 24 after 9 games, with 13 points. Last season it finished 8th of 24 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the top block (1st to 8th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 9 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side new to its division. Against that block it has won 1, drew 0, lost 0 of 1. At home against them: won 1 of 1. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 2, lost 10 of 14 (0.57 a game); against the middle block won 12, drew 4, lost 2 of 18 (2.22 a game); against the bottom block won 8, drew 5, lost 4 of 17 (1.71 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 0 of 1 (3.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **-0.03 points a game is the venue form gap, in Halifax Town's favour: Worthing takes 1.40 a game at home over the last two seasons, Halifax Town 1.43 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Worthing -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 2, drew 1, lost 2 of 5, scoring 7 and conceding 7. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Hartlepool United 3-1 away; beat AFC Hornchurch 1-0 at home; drew with Barrow 2-2 at home; drew with Fylde 2-2 away; lost to Boreham Wood 2-3 at home. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 9 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Adam Hinshelwood. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Halifax Town -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 1, drew 0, lost 3 of 4, scoring 4 and conceding 6. Last season away: won 9, drew 3, lost 7 of 19, scoring 24 and conceding 25 -- 1.58 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: drew with Sutton United 1-1 at home; beat Wealdstone 1-0 away; beat AFC Hornchurch 3-0 at home; lost to Aldershot Town 0-1 away; beat Hartlepool United 1-0 at home. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 21 matches with one recorded (12, 9 apiece), most recently John Matthew McGrath with 9. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Worthing scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Halifax Town scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Worthing's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Halifax Town is softest.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Worthing scores most in the 76-90+ band (5 of 17); Worthing concedes most in the 76-90+ band (7 of 15); Halifax Town scores most in the 76-90+ band (24 of 79); Halifax Town concedes most in the 76-90+ band (19 of 68). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Worthing -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.9 and concedes 1.7 a game over its last 9 league matches; at home, 1.4 for and 1.4 against over 5. - **When it scores:** Of 17 scored across its own 9 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 2; 16-30: 2; 31-45+: 3; 46-60: 2; 61-75: 3; 76-90+: 5. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 5 of 17 (29%). - **When it concedes:** Of 15 conceded across its own 9 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 0; 16-30: 1; 31-45+: 2; 46-60: 3; 61-75: 2; 76-90+: 7. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 7 of 15 (47%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 7 of its 9 read -- then won 3, drew 1, lost 3; conceded first in 2 -- pulled back 1 win and 1 draw from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 5 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 2 of its 9 read, winning 2 of them; trailed by two in 2, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 4. ### Halifax Town -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.6 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.2 for and 1.3 against over 23. - **When it scores:** Of 79 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 17; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 24. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 24 of 79 (30%). - **When it concedes:** Of 68 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 19. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 19 of 68 (28%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 29 of its 50 read -- then won 21, drew 5, lost 3; conceded first in 20 -- pulled back 2 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 14 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 12 of its 50 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 12, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 10. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 70% of their games, both teams scoring in 69%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 46%. On the record this leans a goals match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Worthing's numbers over its games, Halifax Town's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Worthing's own 5 home matches read, one appeared in 2 (40%). In Halifax Town's own 23 away matches read, 12 (52%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 46% of games. ### Worthing -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 7 of its own 9 (78%); over 1.5 in 7 (78%); over 3.5 in 6 (67%). At home: over 2.5 in 3 of its 5 (60%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 7 of its own 9 (78%). At home: 3 of its 5 (60%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 2 of its own 9 (22%); failed to score in 0 (0%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Worthing's own 9 matches read: Worthing or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 4 (44%). Worthing itself held the lead in 2, winning 2. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 2 of 5. ### Halifax Town -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 31 of its own 50 (62%); over 1.5 in 39 (78%); over 3.5 in 16 (32%). Away: over 2.5 in 13 of its 23 (57%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 30 of its own 50 (60%). Away: 12 of its 23 (52%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 14 of its own 50 (28%); failed to score in 7 (14%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Halifax Town's own 50 matches read: Halifax Town or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 24 (48%). Halifax Town itself held the lead in 12, winning 10. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 12 of 23. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Worthing is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. -0.03 points a game is the venue form gap, in Halifax Town's favour: Worthing takes 1.40 a game at home over the last two seasons, Halifax Town 1.43 away. Worthing scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Halifax Town scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Worthing's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Halifax Town is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 70% of their games, both teams scoring in 69%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 46%. On the record this leans a goals match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Worthing lands the first blow more often (7 of 9 to 29 of 50); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Worthing's hands -- ahead without winning in 4 of 9; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Halifax Town's hands -- ahead without winning in 10 of 50; Worthing finds its goals latest of all -- 5 of its 17 after the 75th, and Halifax Town concedes most in that same spell; Halifax Town finds its goals latest of all -- 24 of its 79 after the 75th, and Worthing concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Worthing 1.32 goals expected, Halifax Town 1.27, from two seasons of scoring rates (5 home matches and 23 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Worthing 2.63 (38%), the draw 3.78 (26%), Halifax Town 2.81 (36%). The market's averages: 2.21, 3.44 and 2.75. The widest gap is on Worthing: the market is shorter (2.21) than our 2.63 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 2.08 (48%), under 2.5 1.92 (52%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.55, under 2.5 2.35. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 1.90 (53%), no 2.12 (47%). The market's averages: yes 1.50, no 2.55. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Worthing's own 5 home matches read, one appeared in 2 (40%). In Halifax Town's own 23 away matches read, 12 (52%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 46% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/national-league/2026-09-26/worthing-v-halifax-town/halftime/ Built 2026-09-23T23:05:21+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.