# Woking v Solihull Moors — the Match Wizard National League, game week 11 — Tuesday, 29 September 2026, kick-off 19:45 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Woking: 50 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season. Solihull Moors: 50 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **The table makes Woking the bigger side: 10th against 14th of 24 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Woking takes 1.73 points a game, Solihull Moors 0.93 -- the block form is Woking's.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Woking -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 16th of 24 after 10 games, with 12 points. Last season it finished 10th of 24 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (9th to 16th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 10 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (9th to 16th). Against that block it has won 7, drew 5, lost 3 of 15 -- 26 points of 45. At home against them: won 4 of 7. Away against them: won 3 of 8. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 6, lost 7 of 15 (0.80 a game); against the middle block won 7, drew 5, lost 3 of 15 (1.73 a game); against the bottom block won 8, drew 5, lost 4 of 17 (1.71 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 1, lost 1 of 3 (1.33 a game). ### Solihull Moors -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 23rd of 24 after 10 games, with 4 points. Last season it finished 14th of 24 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (9th to 16th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 10 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (9th to 16th). Against that block it has won 4, drew 2, lost 9 of 15 -- 14 points of 45. At home against them: won 2 of 8. Away against them: won 2 of 7. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 3, drew 4, lost 9 of 16 (0.81 a game); against the middle block won 4, drew 2, lost 9 of 15 (0.93 a game); against the bottom block won 7, drew 6, lost 3 of 16 (1.69 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 2 of 3 (1.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+0.40 points a game is the venue form gap, in Woking's favour: Woking takes 1.52 a game at home over the last two seasons, Solihull Moors 1.12 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Woking -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 2, drew 2, lost 1 of 5, scoring 9 and conceding 7. Last season at home: won 7, drew 9, lost 4 of 20, scoring 35 and conceding 21 -- 1.50 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Carlisle United 5-2 away; drew with Kidderminster Harriers 0-0 at home; drew with Boston United 1-1 away; beat Altrincham 5-1 at home; lost to Hartlepool United 0-1 away. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 6 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Neal Ardley. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Solihull Moors -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 0, drew 1, lost 3 of 4, scoring 5 and conceding 13. Last season away: won 6, drew 8, lost 6 of 20, scoring 26 and conceding 27 -- 1.30 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Boreham Wood 0-3 at home; lost to Yeovil Town 1-4 away; beat Barrow 1-0 at home; lost to Aldershot Town 1-2 at home; drew with Gateshead 1-1 away. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 3 different managers took its 22 matches with one recorded (17, 4, 1 apiece), most recently Chris Millington with 17. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Woking scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Solihull Moors scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Woking's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Solihull Moors is softest.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Woking scores most in the 76-90+ band (24 of 79); Woking concedes most in the 76-90+ band (13 of 57); Solihull Moors scores most in the 76-90+ band (18 of 75); Solihull Moors concedes most in the 76-90+ band (24 of 86). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Woking -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.6 and concedes 1.1 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.8 for and 1.1 against over 25. - **When it scores:** Of 79 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 14; 76-90+: 24. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 24 of 79 (30%). - **When it concedes:** Of 57 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 13. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 13 of 57 (23%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 25 of its 50 read -- then won 15, drew 9, lost 1; conceded first in 21 -- pulled back 3 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 15 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 14 of its 50 read, winning 14 of them; trailed by two in 7, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 11. ### Solihull Moors -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.5 and concedes 1.7 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.3 for and 1.7 against over 24. - **When it scores:** Of 75 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 14; 31-45+: 15; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 18. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 18 of 75 (24%). - **When it concedes:** Of 86 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 20; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 24. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 24 of 86 (28%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 27 of its 50 read -- then won 14, drew 7, lost 6; conceded first in 20 -- pulled back 1 win and 2 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 7 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 13 of its 50 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 16, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 14. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 51% of their games, both teams scoring in 53%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 47%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Woking's numbers over its games, Solihull Moors's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Woking's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (44%). In Solihull Moors's own 24 away matches read, 12 (50%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 47% of games. ### Woking -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 23 of its own 50 (46%); over 1.5 in 36 (72%); over 3.5 in 16 (32%). At home: over 2.5 in 12 of its 25 (48%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 26 of its own 50 (52%). At home: 14 of its 25 (56%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 12 of its own 50 (24%); failed to score in 16 (32%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Woking's own 50 matches read: Woking or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 21 (42%). Woking itself held the lead in 14, winning 14. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 11 of 25. ### Solihull Moors -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 28 of its own 50 (56%); over 1.5 in 40 (80%); over 3.5 in 18 (36%). Away: over 2.5 in 11 of its 24 (46%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 27 of its own 50 (54%). Away: 15 of its 24 (62%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 12 of its own 50 (24%); failed to score in 14 (28%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Solihull Moors's own 50 matches read: Solihull Moors or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 28 (56%). Solihull Moors itself held the lead in 13, winning 10. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 12 of 24. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **The table makes Woking the bigger side: 10th against 14th of 24 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Woking takes 1.73 points a game, Solihull Moors 0.93 -- the block form is Woking's. +0.40 points a game is the venue form gap, in Woking's favour: Woking takes 1.52 a game at home over the last two seasons, Solihull Moors 1.12 away. Woking scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Solihull Moors scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Woking's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Solihull Moors is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 51% of their games, both teams scoring in 53%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 47%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (25 of 50 and 27 of 50); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Woking's hands -- ahead without winning in 11 of 50; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Solihull Moors's hands -- ahead without winning in 14 of 50; Woking finds its goals latest of all -- 24 of its 79 after the 75th, and Solihull Moors concedes most in that same spell; Solihull Moors finds its goals latest of all -- 18 of its 75 after the 75th, and Woking concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Woking 1.80 goals expected, Solihull Moors 1.13, from two seasons of scoring rates (25 home matches and 24 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Woking 1.89 (53%), the draw 4.32 (23%), Solihull Moors 4.19 (24%). The market's averages: 1.90, 3.65 and 3.55. The widest gap is on the draw: the market is shorter (3.65) than our 4.32 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 1.78 (56%), under 2.5 2.28 (44%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.57, under 2.5 2.29. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 1.77 (57%), no 2.30 (43%). The market's averages: yes 1.51, no 2.36. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Woking's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (44%). In Solihull Moors's own 24 away matches read, 12 (50%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 47% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/national-league/2026-09-29/woking-v-solihull-moors/halftime/ Built 2026-09-29T18:01:29+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.