# Worthing v Southend United — the Match Wizard National League, game week 15 — Tuesday, 27 October 2026, kick-off 19:45 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Worthing: 14 league matches in the bank. Southend United: 50 league matches in the bank, 14 from this season and the rest from last season. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Worthing is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. Against the block the other keeps: Worthing takes 1.50 points a game, Southend United 1.00 -- the block form is Worthing's.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Worthing -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 4th of 24 after 14 games, with 27 points. Last season it played outside the leagues we cover, so we hold no standing for it. - **Its block:** New to the division this season, so it takes no block from last season's final table. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the top block (1st to 8th). Against that block it has won 2, drew 0, lost 2 of 4 -- 6 points of 12. At home against them: won 1 of 3. Away against them: won 1 of 1. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 0, lost 2 of 4 (1.50 a game); against the middle block won 3, drew 1, lost 1 of 5 (2.00 a game); against the bottom block won 1, drew 0, lost 0 of 1 (3.00 a game); against sides new to the division won 2, drew 2, lost 0 of 4 (2.00 a game). ### Southend United -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 3rd of 24 after 14 games, with 28 points. Last season it finished 6th of 24 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the top block (1st to 8th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 14 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side new to its division. Against that block it has won 1, drew 0, lost 2 of 3 -- 3 points of 9. At home against them: won 1 of 3. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 4, drew 5, lost 6 of 15 (1.13 a game); against the middle block won 9, drew 5, lost 3 of 17 (1.88 a game); against the bottom block won 12, drew 3, lost 0 of 15 (2.60 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 2 of 3 (1.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+0.28 points a game is the venue form gap, in Worthing's favour: Worthing takes 1.86 a game at home over the last two seasons, Southend United 1.58 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Worthing -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 4, drew 1, lost 2 of 7, scoring 14 and conceding 8. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Kidderminster Harriers 2-1 away; beat Solihull Moors 5-0 at home; beat Gateshead 2-1 away; drew with Yeovil Town 1-1 away; beat Halifax Town 2-1 at home. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 14 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Adam Hinshelwood. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Southend United -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 4, drew 3, lost 0 of 7, scoring 18 and conceding 8. Last season away: won 7, drew 5, lost 7 of 19, scoring 33 and conceding 23 -- 1.37 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: drew with Halifax Town 2-2 at home; beat Boston United 2-1 away; beat Fylde 3-1 at home; drew with Eastleigh 1-1 away; lost to Barrow 2-4 at home. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 11 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Kevin Maher. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Worthing scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Southend United scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Southend United's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Worthing is softest.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Worthing scores most in the 31-45+ band (6 of 29); Worthing concedes most in the 76-90+ band (7 of 19); Southend United scores most in the 76-90+ band (30 of 100); Southend United concedes most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 59). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Worthing -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 2.1 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 14 league matches; at home, 2.0 for and 1.1 against over 7. - **When it scores:** Of 29 scored across its own 14 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 3; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 3; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 6. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 6 of 29 (21%). - **When it concedes:** Of 19 conceded across its own 14 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 0; 16-30: 3; 31-45+: 3; 46-60: 4; 61-75: 2; 76-90+: 7. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 7 of 19 (37%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 11 of its 14 read -- then won 6, drew 2, lost 3; conceded first in 3 -- pulled back 2 wins and 1 draw from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 3 of its 14 read, winning 3 of them; trailed by two in 2, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 5. ### Southend United -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 2.0 and concedes 1.2 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 2.0 for and 1.2 against over 26. - **When it scores:** Of 100 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 12; 16-30: 17; 31-45+: 17; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 30. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 30 of 100 (30%). - **When it concedes:** Of 59 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 59 (24%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 32 of its 50 read -- then won 22, drew 6, lost 4; conceded first in 17 -- pulled back 4 wins and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 19 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 19 of its 50 read, winning 19 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing 3 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 11. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 69% of their games, both teams scoring in 72%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 43%. On the record this leans a goals match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Worthing's numbers over its games, Southend United's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Worthing's own 7 home matches read, one appeared in 3 (43%). In Southend United's own 26 away matches read, 11 (42%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 43% of games. ### Worthing -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 11 of its own 14 (79%); over 1.5 in 12 (86%); over 3.5 in 7 (50%). At home: over 2.5 in 5 of its 7 (71%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 11 of its own 14 (79%). At home: 4 of its 7 (57%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 3 of its own 14 (21%); failed to score in 0 (0%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Worthing's own 14 matches read: Worthing or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 5 (36%). Worthing itself held the lead in 3, winning 3. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 3 of 7. ### Southend United -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 30 of its own 50 (60%); over 1.5 in 42 (84%); over 3.5 in 18 (36%). Away: over 2.5 in 15 of its 26 (58%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 33 of its own 50 (66%). Away: 17 of its 26 (65%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 13 of its own 50 (26%); failed to score in 5 (10%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Southend United's own 50 matches read: Southend United or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 27 (54%). Southend United itself held the lead in 19, winning 19. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 11 of 26. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Worthing is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. Against the block the other keeps: Worthing takes 1.50 points a game, Southend United 1.00 -- the block form is Worthing's. +0.28 points a game is the venue form gap, in Worthing's favour: Worthing takes 1.86 a game at home over the last two seasons, Southend United 1.58 away. Worthing scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Southend United scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Southend United's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Worthing is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 69% of their games, both teams scoring in 72%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 43%. On the record this leans a goals match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Worthing lands the first blow more often (11 of 14 to 32 of 50); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Southend United's -- two goals clear in 19 of 50, against 3 of 14; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Worthing's hands -- ahead without winning in 5 of 14; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Southend United's hands -- ahead without winning in 11 of 50; Southend United finds its goals latest of all -- 30 of its 100 after the 75th, and Worthing concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Worthing 1.44 goals expected, Southend United 1.70, from two seasons of scoring rates (7 home matches and 26 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Worthing 3.05 (33%), the draw 4.27 (23%), Southend United 2.28 (44%). The market's averages: 2.60, 3.50 and 2.15. The widest gap is on the draw: the market is shorter (3.50) than our 4.27 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 1.64 (61%), under 2.5 2.56 (39%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.35, under 2.5 2.87. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 1.60 (62%), no 2.67 (38%). The market's averages: yes 1.34, no 2.95. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Worthing's own 7 home matches read, one appeared in 3 (43%). In Southend United's own 26 away matches read, 11 (42%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 43% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/national-league/2026-10-27/worthing-v-southend-united/halftime/ Built 2026-10-26T10:02:52+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.