# Sutton United v Aldershot Town — the Match Wizard National League, game week 15 — Wednesday, 28 October 2026, kick-off 19:45 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Sutton United: 50 league matches in the bank, 14 from this season and the rest from last season. Aldershot Town: 50 league matches in the bank, 14 from this season and the rest from last season. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Sutton United and Aldershot Town finished near neighbours last season -- 19th and 20th of 24 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Sutton United takes 1.67 points a game, Aldershot Town 1.30 -- the block form is Sutton United's.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Sutton United -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 16th of 24 after 14 games, with 18 points. Last season it finished 19th of 24 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the bottom block (17th to 24th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 14 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the bottom block (17th to 24th). Against that block it has won 6, drew 7, lost 2 of 15 -- 25 points of 45. At home against them: won 3 of 8. Away against them: won 3 of 7. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 4, lost 8 of 14 (0.71 a game); against the middle block won 7, drew 3, lost 8 of 18 (1.33 a game); against the bottom block won 6, drew 7, lost 2 of 15 (1.67 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 1, lost 2 of 3 (0.33 a game). ### Aldershot Town -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 13th of 24 after 14 games, with 18 points. Last season it finished 20th of 24 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the bottom block (17th to 24th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 14 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the bottom block (17th to 24th). Against that block it has won 3, drew 4, lost 3 of 10 -- 13 points of 30. At home against them: won 0 of 4. Away against them: won 3 of 6. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 1, lost 14 of 17 (0.41 a game); against the middle block won 8, drew 2, lost 9 of 19 (1.37 a game); against the bottom block won 3, drew 4, lost 3 of 10 (1.30 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 1, lost 2 of 4 (1.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+0.12 points a game is the venue form gap, in Sutton United's favour: Sutton United takes 1.24 a game at home over the last two seasons, Aldershot Town 1.12 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Sutton United -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 3, drew 1, lost 3 of 7, scoring 8 and conceding 11. Last season at home: won 5, drew 6, lost 7 of 18, scoring 24 and conceding 30 -- 1.17 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Harrogate Town 1-3 away; lost to Boreham Wood 0-2 at home; drew with Kidderminster Harriers 1-1 away; lost to Tamworth 0-2 away; drew with Forest Green Rovers 3-3 at home. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 3 different managers took its 19 matches with one recorded (16, 2, 1 apiece), most recently Chris Agutter with 16. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Aldershot Town -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 2, drew 2, lost 3 of 7, scoring 7 and conceding 9. Last season away: won 6, drew 2, lost 10 of 18, scoring 24 and conceding 30 -- 1.11 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Wealdstone 0-1 at home; lost to Altrincham 1-3 away; lost to Carlisle United 1-3 at home; lost to AFC Hornchurch 1-2 away; beat Tamworth 5-1 at home. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 3 different managers took its 21 matches with one recorded (14, 6, 1 apiece), most recently Scott Myles Davies with 14. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Sutton United scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Aldershot Town scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 16-30.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Sutton United scores most in the 76-90+ band (18 of 62); Sutton United concedes most in the 46-60 band (19 of 79); Aldershot Town scores most in the 76-90+ band (16 of 63); Aldershot Town concedes most in the 16-30 band (19 of 85). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Sutton United -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.6 a game over its last 50 league matches; at home, 1.3 for and 1.6 against over 25. - **When it scores:** Of 62 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 5; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 18. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 18 of 62 (29%). - **When it concedes:** Of 79 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 13; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 19; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 15. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 22 of its 50 read -- then won 14, drew 3, lost 5; conceded first in 26 -- pulled back 1 win and 10 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 15 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 11 of its 50 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 15, rescuing 3 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 9. ### Aldershot Town -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.7 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 1.2 for and 1.6 against over 25. - **When it scores:** Of 63 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 6; 61-75: 14; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 63 (25%). - **When it concedes:** Of 85 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 13; 16-30: 19; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 14. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 18 of its 50 read -- then won 12, drew 3, lost 3; conceded first in 31 -- pulled back 2 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 10 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 9 of its 50 read, winning 8 of them; trailed by two in 19, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 6. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 57% of their games, both teams scoring in 59%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 50%. On the record this leans a goals match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Sutton United's numbers over its games, Aldershot Town's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Sutton United's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 13 (52%). In Aldershot Town's own 25 away matches read, 12 (48%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 50% of games. ### Sutton United -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 27 of its own 50 (54%); over 1.5 in 42 (84%); over 3.5 in 12 (24%). At home: over 2.5 in 15 of its 25 (60%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 28 of its own 50 (56%). At home: 15 of its 25 (60%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 10 of its own 50 (20%); failed to score in 14 (28%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Sutton United's own 50 matches read: Sutton United or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 25 (50%). Sutton United itself held the lead in 11, winning 10. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 13 of 25. ### Aldershot Town -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 30 of its own 50 (60%); over 1.5 in 41 (82%); over 3.5 in 15 (30%). Away: over 2.5 in 15 of its 25 (60%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 31 of its own 50 (62%). Away: 15 of its 25 (60%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 6 of its own 50 (12%); failed to score in 14 (28%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Aldershot Town's own 50 matches read: Aldershot Town or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 28 (56%). Aldershot Town itself held the lead in 9, winning 8. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 12 of 25. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Sutton United and Aldershot Town finished near neighbours last season -- 19th and 20th of 24 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Sutton United takes 1.67 points a game, Aldershot Town 1.30 -- the block form is Sutton United's. +0.12 points a game is the venue form gap, in Sutton United's favour: Sutton United takes 1.24 a game at home over the last two seasons, Aldershot Town 1.12 away. Sutton United scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Aldershot Town scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 16-30. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 57% of their games, both teams scoring in 59%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 50%. On the record this leans a goals match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Sutton United lands the first blow more often (22 of 50 to 18 of 50); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Sutton United's hands -- ahead without winning in 9 of 50; Sutton United finds its goals latest of all -- 18 of its 62 after the 75th; Aldershot Town finds its goals latest of all -- 16 of its 63 after the 75th. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Sutton United 1.32 goals expected, Aldershot Town 1.49, from two seasons of scoring rates (25 home matches and 25 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Sutton United 2.97 (34%), the draw 3.98 (25%), Aldershot Town 2.42 (41%). The market's averages: 1.75, 3.55 and 3.55. The widest gap is on Aldershot Town: the market offers 3.55 against our 2.42. If our figures are right that is value; nothing proves they are. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 1.87 (53%), under 2.5 2.15 (47%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.80, under 2.5 2.00. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 1.76 (57%), no 2.32 (43%). The market's averages: yes 1.64, no 2.10. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Sutton United's own 25 home matches read, one appeared in 13 (52%). In Aldershot Town's own 25 away matches read, 12 (48%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 50% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/national-league/2026-10-28/sutton-united-v-aldershot-town/halftime/ Built 2026-10-26T02:24:35+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.