# Arbroath v Dunfermline Athletic — the Match Wizard Scottish Championship, game week 5 — Saturday, 5 September 2026, kick-off 15:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Arbroath: 40 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season. Dunfermline Athletic: 40 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season. Look and learn: it is early in the season, so nearly everything counted here was earned last season -- by squads and dugouts a summer window may have reshaped. Treat the first five weeks as pointers while the new shapes settle, not proof. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Arbroath and Dunfermline Athletic finished near neighbours last season -- 3rd and 4th of 10 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Arbroath takes 1.53 points a game, Dunfermline Athletic 0.75 -- the block form is Arbroath's.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Arbroath -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 4th of 10 after 4 games, with 7 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 3rd of 10 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the top block (1st to 3rd). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 4 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (4th to 7th). Against that block it has won 7, drew 5, lost 5 of 17 -- 26 points of 51. At home against them: won 4 of 8. Away against them: won 3 of 9. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 3, lost 3 of 8 (1.12 a game); against the middle block won 7, drew 5, lost 5 of 17 (1.53 a game); against the bottom block won 5, drew 5, lost 3 of 13 (1.54 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 1, lost 0 of 2 (2.00 a game). ### Dunfermline Athletic -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 7th of 10 after 4 games, with 5 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 4th of 10 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (4th to 7th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 4 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the top block (1st to 3rd). Against that block it has won 2, drew 3, lost 7 of 12 -- 9 points of 36. At home against them: won 0 of 6. Away against them: won 2 of 6. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 3, lost 7 of 12 (0.75 a game); against the middle block won 8, drew 3, lost 3 of 14 (1.93 a game); against the bottom block won 5, drew 4, lost 3 of 12 (1.58 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 1, lost 1 of 2 (0.50 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+0.50 points a game is the venue form gap, in Arbroath's favour: Arbroath takes 1.80 a game at home over the last two seasons, Dunfermline Athletic 1.30 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Arbroath -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 1, drew 1, lost 0 of 2, scoring 1 and conceding 0. Last season at home: won 8, drew 8, lost 2 of 18, scoring 27 and conceding 20 -- 1.78 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Livingston 1-0 at home; beat Greenock Morton 2-1 away; drew with Inverness CT 0-0 at home; lost to Ayr United 0-2 away; drew with Dunfermline Athletic 0-0 away. The last of these is from last season. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 17 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Colin Hamilton. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Dunfermline Athletic -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 0, drew 1, lost 1 of 2, scoring 0 and conceding 2. Last season away: won 7, drew 4, lost 7 of 18, scoring 28 and conceding 22 -- 1.39 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Raith Rovers 1-0 at home; lost to Livingston 0-2 away; drew with Ayr United 1-1 at home; drew with Inverness CT 0-0 away; drew with Arbroath 0-0 at home. The last of these is from last season. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 20 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Neil Lennon. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Arbroath scores heaviest in the 46-60 spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Dunfermline Athletic scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 1-15. The shapes mesh: Dunfermline Athletic's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Arbroath is softest.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Arbroath scores most in the 46-60 band (11 of 46); Arbroath concedes most in the 76-90+ band (13 of 44); Dunfermline Athletic scores most in the 76-90+ band (13 of 54); Dunfermline Athletic concedes most in the 1-15 band (12 of 44). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Arbroath -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.1 and concedes 1.1 a game over its last 40 league matches; at home, 1.4 for and 1.0 against over 20. - **When it scores:** Of 46 scored across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 10. - **When it concedes:** Of 44 conceded across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 4; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 13. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 13 of 44 (30%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 20 of its 40 read -- then won 13, drew 5, lost 2; conceded first in 13 -- pulled back 2 wins and 2 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 9 of its 40 read, winning 9 of them; trailed by two in 6, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 7. ### Dunfermline Athletic -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.4 and concedes 1.1 a game over its last 40 league matches; away, 1.4 for and 1.2 against over 20. - **When it scores:** Of 54 scored across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 13. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 13 of 54 (24%). - **When it concedes:** Of 44 conceded across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 12; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 7. Its heaviest conceding spell is the first 15 minutes -- 12 of 44 (27%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 19 of its 40 read -- then won 14, drew 3, lost 2; conceded first in 17 -- pulled back 1 win and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 10 of its 40 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 12, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 5. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 42% of their games, both teams scoring in 42%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 52%. On the record this leans a tight match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Arbroath's numbers over its games, Dunfermline Athletic's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Arbroath's own 20 home matches read, one appeared in 8 (40%). In Dunfermline Athletic's own 20 away matches read, 13 (65%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 52% of games. ### Arbroath -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 17 of its own 40 (42%); over 1.5 in 26 (65%); over 3.5 in 7 (18%). At home: over 2.5 in 8 of its 20 (40%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 20 of its own 40 (50%). At home: 11 of its 20 (55%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 12 of its own 40 (30%); failed to score in 15 (38%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Arbroath's own 40 matches read: Arbroath or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 15 (38%). Arbroath itself held the lead in 9, winning 9. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 8 of 20. ### Dunfermline Athletic -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 17 of its own 40 (42%); over 1.5 in 29 (72%); over 3.5 in 11 (28%). Away: over 2.5 in 9 of its 20 (45%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 14 of its own 40 (35%). Away: 7 of its 20 (35%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 17 of its own 40 (42%); failed to score in 13 (32%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Dunfermline Athletic's own 40 matches read: Dunfermline Athletic or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 22 (55%). Dunfermline Athletic itself held the lead in 10, winning 10. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 13 of 20. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Arbroath and Dunfermline Athletic finished near neighbours last season -- 3rd and 4th of 10 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Arbroath takes 1.53 points a game, Dunfermline Athletic 0.75 -- the block form is Arbroath's. +0.50 points a game is the venue form gap, in Arbroath's favour: Arbroath takes 1.80 a game at home over the last two seasons, Dunfermline Athletic 1.30 away. Arbroath scores heaviest in the 46-60 spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Dunfermline Athletic scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 1-15. The shapes mesh: Dunfermline Athletic's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Arbroath is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 42% of their games, both teams scoring in 42%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 52%. On the record this leans a tight match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (20 of 40 and 19 of 40); Dunfermline Athletic is at its softest in the opening quarter-hour (12 of its 44 conceded before the 16th); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Arbroath's hands -- ahead without winning in 7 of 40; Dunfermline Athletic finds its goals latest of all -- 13 of its 54 after the 75th, and Arbroath concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Arbroath 1.28 goals expected, Dunfermline Athletic 1.24, from two seasons of scoring rates (20 home matches and 20 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Arbroath 2.68 (37%), the draw 3.72 (27%), Dunfermline Athletic 2.79 (36%). The market's averages: 2.55, 3.05 and 2.45. The widest gap is on the draw: the market is shorter (3.05) than our 3.72 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 2.17 (46%), under 2.5 1.86 (54%). The market's averages: over 2.5 2.11, under 2.5 1.70. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 1.95 (51%), no 2.05 (49%). The market's averages: yes 1.81, no 1.88. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Arbroath's own 20 home matches read, one appeared in 8 (40%). In Dunfermline Athletic's own 20 away matches read, 13 (65%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 52% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/scottish-championship/2026-09-05/arbroath-v-dunfermline-athletic/halftime/ Built 2026-09-05T05:39:03+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.