# Inverness CT v Raith Rovers — the Match Wizard Scottish Championship, game week 5 — Saturday, 5 September 2026, kick-off 15:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Inverness CT: 40 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season in the Scottish League One. Raith Rovers: 40 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season. Look and learn: it is early in the season, so nearly everything counted here was earned last season -- by squads and dugouts a summer window may have reshaped. Treat the first five weeks as pointers while the new shapes settle, not proof. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Inverness CT is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Inverness CT -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 8th of 10 after 4 games, with 3 points -- too few games yet to mean much. It was not in this division last season -- it came up from the Scottish League One, where it finished 1st of 10. - **Its block:** New to the division this season, so it takes no block from last season's final table. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (4th to 7th). Against that block it has won 11, drew 5, lost 1 of 17 -- 38 points of 51. At home against them: won 7 of 9. Away against them: won 4 of 8. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 6, lost 2 of 10 (1.20 a game); against the middle block won 11, drew 5, lost 1 of 17 (2.24 a game); against the bottom block won 8, drew 3, lost 1 of 12 (2.25 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 0, lost 1 of 1 (0.00 a game). ### Raith Rovers -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 3rd of 10 after 4 games, with 7 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 5th of 10 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (4th to 7th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 4 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side new to its division. Against that block it has won 0, drew 1, lost 0 of 1. At home against them: won 0 of 1. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 4, lost 6 of 12 (0.83 a game); against the middle block won 7, drew 1, lost 7 of 15 (1.47 a game); against the bottom block won 5, drew 4, lost 3 of 12 (1.58 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 1, lost 0 of 1 (1.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+1.35 points a game is the venue form gap, in Inverness CT's favour: Inverness CT takes 2.25 a game at home over the last two seasons, Raith Rovers 0.90 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Inverness CT -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 0, drew 2, lost 0 of 2, scoring 1 and conceding 1. Last season at home in the Scottish League One: won 13, drew 4, lost 1 of 18, scoring 38 and conceding 12 -- 2.39 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Stenhousemuir 1-3 away; drew with Partick Thistle 1-1 at home; drew with Arbroath 0-0 away; drew with Dunfermline Athletic 0-0 at home; beat Hamilton Academical 2-1 at home in the Scottish League One. The last of these is from last season. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 15 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Scott Kellacher. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Raith Rovers -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 1, drew 0, lost 1 of 2, scoring 2 and conceding 2. Last season away: won 3, drew 6, lost 9 of 18, scoring 9 and conceding 20 -- 0.83 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Dunfermline Athletic 0-1 away; beat Ayr United 2-0 at home; beat Queen's Park 2-1 away; drew with Stenhousemuir 1-1 at home; beat Ross County 3-2 at home. The last of these is from last season. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 16 matches with one recorded (9, 7 apiece), most recently Dougie Imrie with 9. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Inverness CT scores heaviest in the 61-75 spell and concedes heaviest in 16-30; Raith Rovers scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Inverness CT scores most in the 61-75 band (13 of 62); Inverness CT concedes most in the 16-30 band (6 of 28); Raith Rovers scores most in the 76-90+ band (13 of 48); Raith Rovers concedes most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 45). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Inverness CT -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.6 and concedes 0.7 a game over its last 40 league matches; at home, 1.9 for and 0.7 against over 20. - **When it scores:** Of 62 scored across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 13; 76-90+: 9. - **When it concedes:** Of 28 conceded across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 2; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 4; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 6. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 6 of 28 (21%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 26 of its 40 read -- then won 20, drew 4, lost 2; conceded first in 10 -- pulled back 1 win and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 9 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 14 of its 40 read, winning 14 of them; trailed by two in 3, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 6. ### Raith Rovers -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.1 a game over its last 40 league matches; away, 0.6 for and 1.1 against over 20. - **When it scores:** Of 48 scored across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 4; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 13. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 13 of 48 (27%). - **When it concedes:** Of 45 conceded across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 3; 61-75: 4; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 45 (31%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 13 of its 40 read -- then won 11, drew 2, lost 0; conceded first in 20 -- pulled back 3 wins and 1 draw from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 10 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 10 of its 40 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 14, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 2. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 39% of their games, both teams scoring in 41%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 50%. On the record this leans a tight match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Inverness CT's numbers over its games, Raith Rovers's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Inverness CT's own 20 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (50%). In Raith Rovers's own 20 away matches read, 10 (50%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 50% of games. ### Inverness CT -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 15 of its own 40 (38%); over 1.5 in 28 (70%); over 3.5 in 10 (25%). At home: over 2.5 in 10 of its 20 (50%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 19 of its own 40 (48%). At home: 11 of its 20 (55%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 20 of its own 40 (50%); failed to score in 5 (12%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Inverness CT's own 40 matches read: Inverness CT or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 17 (42%). Inverness CT itself held the lead in 14, winning 14. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 10 of 20. ### Raith Rovers -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 16 of its own 40 (40%); over 1.5 in 30 (75%); over 3.5 in 7 (18%). Away: over 2.5 in 6 of its 20 (30%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 14 of its own 40 (35%). Away: 5 of its 20 (25%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 16 of its own 40 (40%); failed to score in 17 (42%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Raith Rovers's own 40 matches read: Raith Rovers or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 24 (60%). Raith Rovers itself held the lead in 10, winning 10. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 10 of 20. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Inverness CT is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. +1.35 points a game is the venue form gap, in Inverness CT's favour: Inverness CT takes 2.25 a game at home over the last two seasons, Raith Rovers 0.90 away. Inverness CT scores heaviest in the 61-75 spell and concedes heaviest in 16-30; Raith Rovers scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 39% of their games, both teams scoring in 41%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 50%. On the record this leans a tight match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Inverness CT lands the first blow more often (26 of 40 to 13 of 40); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Inverness CT's -- two goals clear in 14 of 40, against 10 of 40; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Inverness CT's hands -- ahead without winning in 6 of 40; Raith Rovers finds its goals latest of all -- 13 of its 48 after the 75th. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Inverness CT 1.56 goals expected, Raith Rovers 0.47, from two seasons of scoring rates (20 home matches and 20 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: Inverness CT's figures include last season in the Scottish League One, where goals came against different company. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Inverness CT 1.55 (65%), the draw 4.06 (25%), Raith Rovers 9.30 (11%). The market's averages: 2.11, 3.20 and 3.19. The widest gap is on Raith Rovers: the market is shorter (3.19) than our 9.30 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 3.03 (33%), under 2.5 1.49 (67%). The market's averages: over 2.5 2.07, under 2.5 1.73. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 3.40 (29%), no 1.42 (71%). The market's averages: yes 1.80, no 1.95. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Inverness CT's own 20 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (50%). In Raith Rovers's own 20 away matches read, 10 (50%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 50% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/scottish-championship/2026-09-05/inverness-ct-v-raith-rovers/halftime/ Built 2026-09-05T05:39:07+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.