# Queen's Park v Greenock Morton — the Match Wizard Scottish Championship, game week 5 — Saturday, 5 September 2026, kick-off 15:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Queen's Park: 40 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season. Greenock Morton: 40 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season. Look and learn: it is early in the season, so nearly everything counted here was earned last season -- by squads and dugouts a summer window may have reshaped. Treat the first five weeks as pointers while the new shapes settle, not proof. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Queen's Park and Greenock Morton finished near neighbours last season -- 6th and 8th of 10 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Queen's Park takes 1.83 points a game, Greenock Morton 1.00 -- the block form is Queen's Park's.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Queen's Park -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 10th of 10 after 4 games, with 1 point -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 6th of 10 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (4th to 7th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 4 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the bottom block (8th to 10th). Against that block it has won 6, drew 4, lost 2 of 12 -- 22 points of 36. At home against them: won 3 of 6. Away against them: won 3 of 6. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 1, drew 5, lost 7 of 13 (0.62 a game); against the middle block won 2, drew 6, lost 5 of 13 (0.92 a game); against the bottom block won 6, drew 4, lost 2 of 12 (1.83 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 0, lost 2 of 2 (0.00 a game). ### Greenock Morton -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 9th of 10 after 4 games, with 1 point -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 8th of 10 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the bottom block (8th to 10th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 4 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (4th to 7th). Against that block it has won 3, drew 8, lost 6 of 17 -- 17 points of 51. At home against them: won 2 of 8. Away against them: won 1 of 9. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 5, lost 7 of 14 (0.79 a game); against the middle block won 3, drew 8, lost 6 of 17 (1.00 a game); against the bottom block won 3, drew 2, lost 3 of 8 (1.38 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 0, lost 1 of 1 (0.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+0.30 points a game is the venue form gap, in Queen's Park's favour: Queen's Park takes 1.10 a game at home over the last two seasons, Greenock Morton 0.80 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Queen's Park -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 0, drew 0, lost 2 of 2, scoring 1 and conceding 4. Last season at home: won 5, drew 7, lost 6 of 18, scoring 16 and conceding 20 -- 1.22 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: drew with Partick Thistle 0-0 away; lost to Stenhousemuir 0-2 at home; lost to Raith Rovers 1-2 at home; lost to Livingston 0-2 away; drew with Partick Thistle 1-1 away. The last of these is from last season. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 1 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Steven MacLean. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Greenock Morton -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 0, drew 1, lost 1 of 2, scoring 1 and conceding 3. Last season away: won 3, drew 6, lost 9 of 18, scoring 20 and conceding 33 -- 0.83 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: drew with Ayr United 1-1 away; lost to Arbroath 1-2 at home; lost to Stenhousemuir 0-2 away; lost to Partick Thistle 0-1 at home; drew with Airdrieonians 1-1 at home. The last of these is from last season. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 17 matches with one recorded (10, 7 apiece), most recently Ian Murray with 10. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Queen's Park scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Greenock Morton scores heaviest in 16-30 and concedes heaviest in 46-60.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Queen's Park scores most in the 76-90+ band (11 of 36); Queen's Park concedes most in the 76-90+ band (13 of 54); Greenock Morton scores most in the 16-30 band (9 of 38); Greenock Morton concedes most in the 46-60 band (15 of 57). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Queen's Park -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 0.9 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 40 league matches; at home, 0.8 for and 1.2 against over 20. - **When it scores:** Of 36 scored across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 3; 16-30: 4; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 2; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 11. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 11 of 36 (31%). - **When it concedes:** Of 54 conceded across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 13. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 13 of 54 (24%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 11 of its 40 read -- then won 7, drew 4, lost 0; conceded first in 23 -- pulled back 2 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 11 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 1 of its 40 read, winning 1 of them; trailed by two in 11, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 4. ### Greenock Morton -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 0.9 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 40 league matches; away, 1.1 for and 1.8 against over 20. - **When it scores:** Of 38 scored across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 3; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 4; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 7. - **When it concedes:** Of 57 conceded across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 15. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 15 of 57 (26%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 18 of its 40 read -- then won 8, drew 4, lost 6; conceded first in 18 -- pulled back 0 wins and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 5 of its 40 read, winning 4 of them; trailed by two in 7, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 10. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 39% of their games, both teams scoring in 54%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 32%. On the record this leans a tight match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Queen's Park's numbers over its games, Greenock Morton's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Queen's Park's own 20 home matches read, one appeared in 6 (30%). In Greenock Morton's own 20 away matches read, 7 (35%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 32% of games. ### Queen's Park -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 15 of its own 40 (38%); over 1.5 in 27 (68%); over 3.5 in 7 (18%). At home: over 2.5 in 7 of its 20 (35%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 21 of its own 40 (52%). At home: 10 of its 20 (50%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 10 of its own 40 (25%); failed to score in 15 (38%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Queen's Park's own 40 matches read: Queen's Park or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 12 (30%). Queen's Park itself held the lead in 1, winning 1. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 6 of 20. ### Greenock Morton -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 16 of its own 40 (40%); over 1.5 in 30 (75%); over 3.5 in 9 (22%). Away: over 2.5 in 10 of its 20 (50%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 22 of its own 40 (55%). Away: 13 of its 20 (65%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 9 of its own 40 (22%); failed to score in 13 (32%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Greenock Morton's own 40 matches read: Greenock Morton or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 12 (30%). Greenock Morton itself held the lead in 5, winning 4. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 7 of 20. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Queen's Park and Greenock Morton finished near neighbours last season -- 6th and 8th of 10 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Queen's Park takes 1.83 points a game, Greenock Morton 1.00 -- the block form is Queen's Park's. +0.30 points a game is the venue form gap, in Queen's Park's favour: Queen's Park takes 1.10 a game at home over the last two seasons, Greenock Morton 0.80 away. Queen's Park scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Greenock Morton scores heaviest in 16-30 and concedes heaviest in 46-60. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 39% of their games, both teams scoring in 54%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 32%. On the record this leans a tight match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Greenock Morton lands the first blow more often (18 of 40 to 11 of 40); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Greenock Morton's -- two goals clear in 5 of 40, against 1 of 40; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Greenock Morton's hands -- ahead without winning in 10 of 40; Queen's Park finds its goals latest of all -- 11 of its 36 after the 75th. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Queen's Park 1.22 goals expected, Greenock Morton 1.14, from two seasons of scoring rates (20 home matches and 20 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Queen's Park 2.64 (38%), the draw 3.58 (28%), Greenock Morton 2.92 (34%). The market's averages: 2.25, 3.20 and 3.00. The widest gap is on Queen's Park: the market is shorter (2.25) than our 2.64 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 2.38 (42%), under 2.5 1.72 (58%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.98, under 2.5 1.71. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 2.09 (48%), no 1.92 (52%). The market's averages: yes 1.75, no 1.91. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Queen's Park's own 20 home matches read, one appeared in 6 (30%). In Greenock Morton's own 20 away matches read, 7 (35%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 32% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/scottish-championship/2026-09-05/queen-s-park-v-greenock-morton/halftime/ Built 2026-09-05T05:39:04+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.