# Stenhousemuir v Partick Thistle — the Match Wizard Scottish Championship, game week 6 — Tuesday, 15 September 2026, kick-off 19:45 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Stenhousemuir: 41 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season in the Scottish League One. Partick Thistle: 41 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Stenhousemuir is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Stenhousemuir -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 2nd of 10 after 5 games, with 13 points -- too few games yet to mean much. It was not in this division last season -- it came up from the Scottish League One, where it finished 2nd of 10. - **Its block:** New to the division this season, so it takes no block from last season's final table. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the top block (1st to 3rd). Against that block it has won 3, drew 5, lost 0 of 8 -- 14 points of 24. At home against them: won 2 of 4. Away against them: won 1 of 4. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 3, drew 5, lost 0 of 8 (1.75 a game); against the middle block won 10, drew 5, lost 3 of 18 (1.94 a game); against the bottom block won 7, drew 4, lost 2 of 13 (1.92 a game); against sides new to the division won 2, drew 0, lost 0 of 2 (3.00 a game). ### Partick Thistle -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 3rd of 10 after 5 games, with 11 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 2nd of 10 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the top block (1st to 3rd). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 5 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side new to its division. Against that block it has won 1, drew 1, lost 0 of 2. At home against them: won 1 of 1. Away against them: won 0 of 1. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 1, drew 5, lost 2 of 8 (1.00 a game); against the middle block won 10, drew 7, lost 1 of 18 (2.06 a game); against the bottom block won 8, drew 4, lost 1 of 13 (2.15 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 1, lost 0 of 2 (2.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+0.75 points a game is the venue form gap, in Stenhousemuir's favour: Stenhousemuir takes 2.15 a game at home over the last two seasons, Partick Thistle 1.40 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Stenhousemuir -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 2, drew 0, lost 0 of 2, scoring 5 and conceding 1. Last season at home in the Scottish League One: won 10, drew 7, lost 1 of 18, scoring 30 and conceding 12 -- 2.06 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Livingston 1-0 away; beat Inverness CT 3-1 at home; beat Queen's Park 2-0 away; beat Greenock Morton 2-0 at home; drew with Raith Rovers 1-1 away. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 18 matches with one recorded (13, 5 apiece), most recently Marvin Bartley with 5. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Partick Thistle -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 1, drew 1, lost 0 of 2, scoring 2 and conceding 1. Last season away: won 5, drew 9, lost 4 of 18, scoring 23 and conceding 24 -- 1.33 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Ayr United 1-0 at home; drew with Queen's Park 0-0 at home; drew with Inverness CT 1-1 away; beat Livingston 2-0 at home; beat Greenock Morton 1-0 away. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 16 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Mark Wilson. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Stenhousemuir scores heaviest in the 46-60 spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Partick Thistle scores heaviest in 1-15 and concedes heaviest in 61-75.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Stenhousemuir scores most in the 46-60 band (15 of 58); Stenhousemuir concedes most in the 46-60 band (8 of 29); Partick Thistle scores most in the 1-15 band (14 of 58); Partick Thistle concedes most in the 61-75 band (8 of 37). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Stenhousemuir -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.4 and concedes 0.7 a game over its last 41 league matches; at home, 1.8 for and 0.7 against over 20. - **When it scores:** Of 58 scored across its own 41 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 13. - **When it concedes:** Of 29 conceded across its own 41 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 3; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 4; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 3; 76-90+: 5. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 27 of its 41 read -- then won 21, drew 5, lost 1; conceded first in 10 -- pulled back 1 win and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 13 of its 41 read, winning 12 of them; trailed by two in 5, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 6. ### Partick Thistle -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.4 and concedes 0.9 a game over its last 41 league matches; away, 1.2 for and 1.2 against over 20. - **When it scores:** Of 58 scored across its own 41 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 14; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 4; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 58 (24%). - **When it concedes:** Of 37 conceded across its own 41 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 6; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 6. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 23 of its 41 read -- then won 15, drew 7, lost 1; conceded first in 12 -- pulled back 5 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 20 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 11 of its 41 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 5, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 9. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 35% of their games, both teams scoring in 46%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 45%. On the record this leans a tight match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Stenhousemuir's numbers over its games, Partick Thistle's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Stenhousemuir's own 20 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (50%). In Partick Thistle's own 20 away matches read, 8 (40%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 45% of games. ### Stenhousemuir -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 13 of its own 41 (32%); over 1.5 in 27 (66%); over 3.5 in 9 (22%). At home: over 2.5 in 9 of its 20 (45%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 16 of its own 41 (39%). At home: 9 of its 20 (45%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 21 of its own 41 (51%); failed to score in 8 (20%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Stenhousemuir's own 41 matches read: Stenhousemuir or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 18 (44%). Stenhousemuir itself held the lead in 13, winning 12. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 10 of 20. ### Partick Thistle -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 16 of its own 41 (39%); over 1.5 in 29 (71%); over 3.5 in 10 (24%). Away: over 2.5 in 8 of its 20 (40%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 22 of its own 41 (54%). Away: 12 of its 20 (60%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 17 of its own 41 (41%); failed to score in 8 (20%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Partick Thistle's own 41 matches read: Partick Thistle or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 16 (39%). Partick Thistle itself held the lead in 11, winning 10. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 8 of 20. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Stenhousemuir is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. +0.75 points a game is the venue form gap, in Stenhousemuir's favour: Stenhousemuir takes 2.15 a game at home over the last two seasons, Partick Thistle 1.40 away. Stenhousemuir scores heaviest in the 46-60 spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Partick Thistle scores heaviest in 1-15 and concedes heaviest in 61-75. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 35% of their games, both teams scoring in 46%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 45%. On the record this leans a tight match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Stenhousemuir lands the first blow more often (27 of 41 to 23 of 41); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Partick Thistle's hands -- ahead without winning in 9 of 41. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Stenhousemuir 1.57 goals expected, Partick Thistle 0.84, from two seasons of scoring rates (20 home matches and 20 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: Stenhousemuir's figures include last season in the Scottish League One, where goals came against different company. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Stenhousemuir 1.83 (55%), the draw 3.95 (25%), Partick Thistle 5.01 (20%). The market's averages: 4.90, 3.65 and 1.64. The widest gap is on Stenhousemuir: the market offers 4.90 against our 1.83. If our figures are right that is value; nothing proves they are. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 2.31 (43%), under 2.5 1.76 (57%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.90, under 2.5 1.92. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 2.23 (45%), no 1.81 (55%). The market's averages: yes 1.80, no 1.95. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Stenhousemuir's own 20 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (50%). In Partick Thistle's own 20 away matches read, 8 (40%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 45% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/scottish-championship/2026-09-15/stenhousemuir-v-partick-thistle/halftime/ Built 2026-09-15T06:32:01+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.