# Ayr United v Stenhousemuir — the Match Wizard Scottish Championship, game week 8 — Friday, 25 September 2026, kick-off 19:45 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Ayr United: 43 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season. Stenhousemuir: 43 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season in the Scottish League One. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Stenhousemuir is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Ayr United -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 6th of 10 after 7 games, with 8 points. Last season it finished 7th of 10 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (4th to 7th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 7 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side new to its division. Against that block it has won 0, drew 0, lost 1 of 1. At home against them: won 0 of 1. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 6, lost 6 of 14 (0.86 a game); against the middle block won 5, drew 4, lost 6 of 15 (1.27 a game); against the bottom block won 3, drew 7, lost 3 of 13 (1.23 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 0, lost 1 of 1 (0.00 a game). ### Stenhousemuir -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 1st of 10 after 7 games, with 19 points. It was not in this division last season -- it came up from the Scottish League One, where it finished 2nd of 10. - **Its block:** New to the division this season, so it takes no block from last season's final table. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (4th to 7th). Against that block it has won 10, drew 5, lost 3 of 18 -- 35 points of 54. At home against them: won 5 of 8. Away against them: won 5 of 10. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 5, drew 5, lost 0 of 10 (2.00 a game); against the middle block won 10, drew 5, lost 3 of 18 (1.94 a game); against the bottom block won 7, drew 4, lost 2 of 13 (1.92 a game); against sides new to the division won 2, drew 0, lost 0 of 2 (3.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **-0.67 points a game is the venue form gap, in Stenhousemuir's favour: Ayr United takes 1.10 a game at home over the last two seasons, Stenhousemuir 1.76 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Ayr United -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 1, drew 1, lost 1 of 3, scoring 4 and conceding 4. Last season at home: won 4, drew 7, lost 7 of 18, scoring 17 and conceding 22 -- 1.06 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Queen's Park 2-0 away; lost to Inverness CT 1-3 at home; lost to Partick Thistle 0-1 away; drew with Greenock Morton 1-1 at home; lost to Raith Rovers 0-2 away. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 3 different managers took its 19 matches with one recorded (7, 6, 6 apiece), most recently Gary Naysmith with 7. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Stenhousemuir -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 2, drew 1, lost 0 of 3, scoring 4 and conceding 1. Last season away in the Scottish League One: won 8, drew 6, lost 4 of 18, scoring 19 and conceding 15 -- 1.67 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Arbroath 1-0 at home; beat Partick Thistle 1-0 at home; beat Livingston 1-0 away; beat Inverness CT 3-1 at home; beat Queen's Park 2-0 away. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 20 matches with one recorded (13, 7 apiece), most recently Marvin Bartley with 7. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Ayr United scores heaviest in the 16-30 spell and concedes heaviest in 1-15; Stenhousemuir scores heaviest in 46-60 and concedes heaviest in 46-60.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Ayr United scores most in the 16-30 band (11 of 45); Ayr United concedes most in the 1-15 band (11 of 55); Stenhousemuir scores most in the 46-60 band (15 of 60); Stenhousemuir concedes most in the 46-60 band (8 of 29). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Ayr United -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.0 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 43 league matches; at home, 1.0 for and 1.2 against over 21. - **When it scores:** Of 45 scored across its own 43 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 4; 61-75: 3; 76-90+: 8. - **When it concedes:** Of 55 conceded across its own 43 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 11. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 11 of 55 (20%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 20 of its 43 read -- then won 10, drew 7, lost 3; conceded first in 19 -- pulled back 0 wins and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 7 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 7 of its 43 read, winning 6 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 11. ### Stenhousemuir -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.4 and concedes 0.7 a game over its last 43 league matches; away, 1.1 for and 0.8 against over 21. - **When it scores:** Of 60 scored across its own 43 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 14. - **When it concedes:** Of 29 conceded across its own 43 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 3; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 4; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 3; 76-90+: 5. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 29 of its 43 read -- then won 23, drew 5, lost 1; conceded first in 10 -- pulled back 1 win and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 13 of its 43 read, winning 12 of them; trailed by two in 5, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 6. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 34% of their games, both teams scoring in 48%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 33%. On the record this leans a tight match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Ayr United's numbers over its games, Stenhousemuir's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Ayr United's own 21 home matches read, one appeared in 6 (29%). In Stenhousemuir's own 21 away matches read, 8 (38%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 33% of games. ### Ayr United -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 16 of its own 43 (37%); over 1.5 in 31 (72%); over 3.5 in 7 (16%). At home: over 2.5 in 7 of its 21 (33%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 25 of its own 43 (58%). At home: 12 of its 21 (57%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 10 of its own 43 (23%); failed to score in 12 (28%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Ayr United's own 43 matches read: Ayr United or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 14 (33%). Ayr United itself held the lead in 7, winning 6. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 6 of 21. ### Stenhousemuir -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 13 of its own 43 (30%); over 1.5 in 27 (63%); over 3.5 in 9 (21%). Away: over 2.5 in 4 of its 21 (19%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 16 of its own 43 (37%). Away: 7 of its 21 (33%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 23 of its own 43 (53%); failed to score in 8 (19%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Stenhousemuir's own 43 matches read: Stenhousemuir or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 18 (42%). Stenhousemuir itself held the lead in 13, winning 12. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 8 of 21. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Stenhousemuir is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. -0.67 points a game is the venue form gap, in Stenhousemuir's favour: Ayr United takes 1.10 a game at home over the last two seasons, Stenhousemuir 1.76 away. Ayr United scores heaviest in the 16-30 spell and concedes heaviest in 1-15; Stenhousemuir scores heaviest in 46-60 and concedes heaviest in 46-60. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 34% of their games, both teams scoring in 48%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 33%. On the record this leans a tight match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Stenhousemuir lands the first blow more often (29 of 43 to 20 of 43); Ayr United is at its softest in the opening quarter-hour (11 of its 55 conceded before the 16th); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Stenhousemuir's -- two goals clear in 13 of 43, against 7 of 43; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Ayr United's hands -- ahead without winning in 11 of 43. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Ayr United 0.71 goals expected, Stenhousemuir 1.21, from two seasons of scoring rates (21 home matches and 21 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: Stenhousemuir's figures include last season in the Scottish League One, where goals came against different company. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Ayr United 4.57 (22%), the draw 3.31 (30%), Stenhousemuir 2.09 (48%). The market's averages: 2.17, 3.25 and 3.00. The widest gap is on Ayr United: the market is shorter (2.17) than our 4.57 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 3.30 (30%), under 2.5 1.43 (70%). The market's averages: over 2.5 2.10, under 2.5 1.64. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 2.79 (36%), no 1.56 (64%). The market's averages: yes 1.84, no 1.85. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Ayr United's own 21 home matches read, one appeared in 6 (29%). In Stenhousemuir's own 21 away matches read, 8 (38%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 33% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/scottish-championship/2026-09-25/ayr-united-v-stenhousemuir/halftime/ Built 2026-09-23T18:01:50+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.