# Inverness CT v Greenock Morton — the Match Wizard Scottish Championship, game week 8 — Friday, 25 September 2026, kick-off 19:45 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Inverness CT: 43 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season in the Scottish League One. Greenock Morton: 43 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Inverness CT is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Inverness CT -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 8th of 10 after 7 games, with 7 points. It was not in this division last season -- it came up from the Scottish League One, where it finished 1st of 10. - **Its block:** New to the division this season, so it takes no block from last season's final table. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the bottom block (8th to 10th). Against that block it has won 8, drew 3, lost 1 of 12 -- 27 points of 36. At home against them: won 5 of 6. Away against them: won 3 of 6. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 6, lost 2 of 10 (1.20 a game); against the middle block won 12, drew 5, lost 2 of 19 (2.16 a game); against the bottom block won 8, drew 3, lost 1 of 12 (2.25 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 1, lost 1 of 2 (0.50 a game). ### Greenock Morton -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 10th of 10 after 7 games, with 1 point. Last season it finished 8th of 10 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the bottom block (8th to 10th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 7 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side new to its division. Against that block it has won 0, drew 0, lost 2 of 2. At home against them: won 0 of 1. Away against them: won 0 of 1. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 5, lost 7 of 14 (0.79 a game); against the middle block won 3, drew 8, lost 8 of 19 (0.89 a game); against the bottom block won 3, drew 2, lost 3 of 8 (1.38 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 0, lost 2 of 2 (0.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+1.38 points a game is the venue form gap, in Inverness CT's favour: Inverness CT takes 2.14 a game at home over the last two seasons, Greenock Morton 0.76 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Inverness CT -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 0, drew 2, lost 1 of 3, scoring 1 and conceding 3. Last season at home in the Scottish League One: won 13, drew 4, lost 1 of 18, scoring 38 and conceding 12 -- 2.39 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: drew with Livingston 2-2 away; beat Ayr United 3-1 away; lost to Raith Rovers 0-2 at home; lost to Stenhousemuir 1-3 away; drew with Partick Thistle 1-1 at home. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 18 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Scott Kellacher. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Greenock Morton -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 0, drew 1, lost 2 of 3, scoring 2 and conceding 5. Last season away: won 3, drew 6, lost 9 of 18, scoring 20 and conceding 33 -- 0.83 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Dunfermline Athletic 0-1 at home; lost to Livingston 1-4 at home; lost to Queen's Park 1-2 away; drew with Ayr United 1-1 away; lost to Arbroath 1-2 at home. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 20 matches with one recorded (13, 7 apiece), most recently Ian Murray with 13. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Inverness CT scores heaviest in the 61-75 spell and concedes heaviest in 16-30; Greenock Morton scores heaviest in 16-30 and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Greenock Morton's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Inverness CT is softest.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Inverness CT scores most in the 61-75 band (15 of 67); Inverness CT concedes most in the 16-30 band (8 of 33); Greenock Morton scores most in the 16-30 band (10 of 40); Greenock Morton concedes most in the 76-90+ band (17 of 64). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Inverness CT -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.6 and concedes 0.8 a game over its last 43 league matches; at home, 1.9 for and 0.7 against over 21. - **When it scores:** Of 67 scored across its own 43 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 15; 76-90+: 9. - **When it concedes:** Of 33 conceded across its own 43 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 3; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 4; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 8. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 8 of 33 (24%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 27 of its 43 read -- then won 21, drew 4, lost 2; conceded first in 12 -- pulled back 1 win and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 10 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 15 of its 43 read, winning 15 of them; trailed by two in 4, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 7. ### Greenock Morton -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 0.9 and concedes 1.5 a game over its last 43 league matches; away, 1.0 for and 1.8 against over 21. - **When it scores:** Of 40 scored across its own 43 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 3; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 7. - **When it concedes:** Of 64 conceded across its own 43 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 16; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 17. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 17 of 64 (27%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 18 of its 43 read -- then won 8, drew 4, lost 6; conceded first in 21 -- pulled back 0 wins and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 5 of its 43 read, winning 4 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 10. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 41% of their games, both teams scoring in 52%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 43%. On the record this leans a tight match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Inverness CT's numbers over its games, Greenock Morton's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Inverness CT's own 21 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (52%). In Greenock Morton's own 21 away matches read, 7 (33%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 43% of games. ### Inverness CT -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 17 of its own 43 (40%); over 1.5 in 31 (72%); over 3.5 in 12 (28%). At home: over 2.5 in 10 of its 21 (48%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 21 of its own 43 (49%). At home: 11 of its 21 (52%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 20 of its own 43 (47%); failed to score in 6 (14%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Inverness CT's own 43 matches read: Inverness CT or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 19 (44%). Inverness CT itself held the lead in 15, winning 15. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 11 of 21. ### Greenock Morton -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 18 of its own 43 (42%); over 1.5 in 32 (74%); over 3.5 in 10 (23%). Away: over 2.5 in 11 of its 21 (52%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 24 of its own 43 (56%). Away: 14 of its 21 (67%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 9 of its own 43 (21%); failed to score in 14 (33%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Greenock Morton's own 43 matches read: Greenock Morton or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 13 (30%). Greenock Morton itself held the lead in 5, winning 4. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 7 of 21. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Inverness CT is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. +1.38 points a game is the venue form gap, in Inverness CT's favour: Inverness CT takes 2.14 a game at home over the last two seasons, Greenock Morton 0.76 away. Inverness CT scores heaviest in the 61-75 spell and concedes heaviest in 16-30; Greenock Morton scores heaviest in 16-30 and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Greenock Morton's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Inverness CT is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 41% of their games, both teams scoring in 52%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 43%. On the record this leans a tight match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Inverness CT lands the first blow more often (27 of 43 to 18 of 43); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Inverness CT's -- two goals clear in 15 of 43, against 5 of 43; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Inverness CT's hands -- ahead without winning in 7 of 43; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Greenock Morton's hands -- ahead without winning in 10 of 43. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Inverness CT 2.22 goals expected, Greenock Morton 0.77, from two seasons of scoring rates (21 home matches and 21 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: Inverness CT's figures include last season in the Scottish League One, where goals came against different company. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Inverness CT 1.42 (70%), the draw 5.52 (18%), Greenock Morton 8.62 (12%). The market's averages: 1.35, 4.50 and 8.90. The widest gap is on the draw: the market is shorter (4.50) than our 5.52 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 1.74 (58%), under 2.5 2.35 (42%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.75, under 2.5 1.95. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 2.08 (48%), no 1.92 (52%). The market's averages: yes 2.05, no 1.73. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Inverness CT's own 21 home matches read, one appeared in 11 (52%). In Greenock Morton's own 21 away matches read, 7 (33%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 43% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/scottish-championship/2026-09-25/inverness-ct-v-greenock-morton/halftime/ Built 2026-09-25T05:34:41+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.