# Raith Rovers v Livingston — the Match Wizard Scottish Championship, game week 8 — Friday, 25 September 2026, kick-off 19:45 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Raith Rovers: 43 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season. Livingston: 45 league matches in the bank, 7 from this season and the rest from last season in the Scottish Premiership. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Livingston is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Raith Rovers -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 2nd of 10 after 7 games, with 14 points. Last season it finished 5th of 10 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (4th to 7th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 7 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side new to its division. Against that block it has won 1, drew 1, lost 0 of 2. At home against them: won 0 of 1. Away against them: won 1 of 1. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 3, drew 5, lost 6 of 14 (1.00 a game); against the middle block won 7, drew 1, lost 7 of 15 (1.47 a game); against the bottom block won 5, drew 4, lost 3 of 12 (1.58 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 1, lost 0 of 2 (2.00 a game). ### Livingston -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 5th of 10 after 7 games, with 10 points. It was not in this division last season -- it came down from the Scottish Premiership, where it finished 12th of 12. - **Its block:** New to the division this season, so it takes no block from last season's final table. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (4th to 7th). Against that block it has won 3, drew 7, lost 6 of 16 -- 16 points of 48. At home against them: won 3 of 7. Away against them: won 0 of 9. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 0, drew 2, lost 12 of 14 (0.14 a game); against the middle block won 3, drew 7, lost 6 of 16 (1.00 a game); against the bottom block won 2, drew 6, lost 5 of 13 (0.92 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 1, lost 1 of 2 (0.50 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+1.20 points a game is the venue form gap, in Raith Rovers's favour: Raith Rovers takes 1.76 a game at home over the last two seasons, Livingston 0.57 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Raith Rovers -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 2, drew 1, lost 0 of 3, scoring 7 and conceding 1. Last season at home: won 9, drew 3, lost 6 of 18, scoring 34 and conceding 22 -- 1.67 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: drew with Partick Thistle 0-0 away; beat Arbroath 4-0 at home; beat Inverness CT 2-0 away; lost to Dunfermline Athletic 0-1 away; beat Ayr United 2-0 at home. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 19 matches with one recorded (12, 7 apiece), most recently Dougie Imrie with 12. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Livingston -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 1, drew 0, lost 2 of 3, scoring 4 and conceding 4. Last season away in the Scottish Premiership: won 1, drew 7, lost 12 of 20, scoring 16 and conceding 39 -- 0.50 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: drew with Inverness CT 2-2 at home; beat Greenock Morton 4-1 away; lost to Stenhousemuir 0-1 at home; lost to Arbroath 0-1 away; beat Dunfermline Athletic 2-0 at home. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 24 matches with one recorded (18, 6 apiece), most recently Marvin Bartley with 6. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Raith Rovers scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Livingston scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Raith Rovers's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Livingston is softest.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Raith Rovers scores most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 54); Raith Rovers concedes most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 45); Livingston scores most in the 76-90+ band (15 of 50); Livingston concedes most in the 76-90+ band (21 of 82). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Raith Rovers -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.0 a game over its last 43 league matches; at home, 2.0 for and 1.1 against over 21. - **When it scores:** Of 54 scored across its own 43 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 54 (26%). - **When it concedes:** Of 45 conceded across its own 43 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 3; 61-75: 4; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 45 (31%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 15 of its 43 read -- then won 13, drew 2, lost 0; conceded first in 20 -- pulled back 3 wins and 1 draw from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 10 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 12 of its 43 read, winning 12 of them; trailed by two in 14, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 2. ### Livingston -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.1 and concedes 1.8 a game over its last 45 league matches; away, 0.9 for and 1.9 against over 23. - **When it scores:** Of 50 scored across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 15. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 15 of 50 (30%). - **When it concedes:** Of 82 conceded across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 15; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 21. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 21 of 82 (26%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 15 of its 45 read -- then won 5, drew 6, lost 4; conceded first in 27 -- pulled back 0 wins and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 9 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 6 of its 45 read, winning 5 of them; trailed by two in 16, rescuing 3 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 12. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 49% of their games, both teams scoring in 46%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 62%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Raith Rovers's numbers over its games, Livingston's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Raith Rovers's own 21 home matches read, one appeared in 15 (71%). In Livingston's own 23 away matches read, 12 (52%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 62% of games. ### Raith Rovers -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 17 of its own 43 (40%); over 1.5 in 32 (74%); over 3.5 in 8 (19%). At home: over 2.5 in 11 of its 21 (52%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 14 of its own 43 (33%). At home: 9 of its 21 (43%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 19 of its own 43 (44%); failed to score in 18 (42%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Raith Rovers's own 43 matches read: Raith Rovers or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 26 (60%). Raith Rovers itself held the lead in 12, winning 12. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 15 of 21. ### Livingston -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 26 of its own 45 (58%); over 1.5 in 37 (82%); over 3.5 in 17 (38%). Away: over 2.5 in 12 of its 23 (52%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 27 of its own 45 (60%). Away: 10 of its 23 (43%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 6 of its own 45 (13%); failed to score in 15 (33%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Livingston's own 45 matches read: Livingston or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 22 (49%). Livingston itself held the lead in 6, winning 5. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 12 of 23. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Livingston is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. +1.20 points a game is the venue form gap, in Raith Rovers's favour: Raith Rovers takes 1.76 a game at home over the last two seasons, Livingston 0.57 away. Raith Rovers scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Livingston scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Raith Rovers's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Livingston is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 49% of their games, both teams scoring in 46%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 62%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (15 of 43 and 15 of 45); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Raith Rovers's -- two goals clear in 12 of 43, against 6 of 45; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Livingston's hands -- ahead without winning in 12 of 45; Raith Rovers finds its goals latest of all -- 14 of its 54 after the 75th, and Livingston concedes most in that same spell; Livingston finds its goals latest of all -- 15 of its 50 after the 75th, and Raith Rovers concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Raith Rovers 2.39 goals expected, Livingston 0.92, from two seasons of scoring rates (21 home matches and 23 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: Livingston's figures include last season in the Scottish Premiership, where goals came against different company. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Raith Rovers 1.43 (70%), the draw 5.76 (17%), Livingston 7.85 (13%). The market's averages: 2.37, 3.25 and 2.70. The widest gap is on Raith Rovers: the market offers 2.37 against our 1.43. If our figures are right that is value; nothing proves they are. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 1.56 (64%), under 2.5 2.79 (36%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.88, under 2.5 1.87. The market offers more than our number on over 2.5 -- if our figures are right that is value; nothing proves they are. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 1.83 (55%), no 2.20 (45%). The market's averages: yes 1.68, no 2.04. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Raith Rovers's own 21 home matches read, one appeared in 15 (71%). In Livingston's own 23 away matches read, 12 (52%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 62% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/scottish-championship/2026-09-25/raith-rovers-v-livingston/halftime/ Built 2026-09-23T08:01:30+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.