# Ayr United v Partick Thistle — the Match Wizard Scottish Championship, game week 11 — Friday, 16 October 2026, kick-off 19:30 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Ayr United: 46 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season. Partick Thistle: 45 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **The table makes Partick Thistle the bigger side: 2nd against 7th of 10 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Ayr United takes 0.86 points a game, Partick Thistle 2.00 -- the block form is Partick Thistle's.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Ayr United -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 7th of 10 after 10 games, with 12 points. Last season it finished 7th of 10 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (4th to 7th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 10 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the top block (1st to 3rd). Against that block it has won 2, drew 6, lost 6 of 14 -- 12 points of 42. At home against them: won 2 of 7. Away against them: won 0 of 7. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 6, lost 6 of 14 (0.86 a game); against the middle block won 5, drew 5, lost 6 of 16 (1.25 a game); against the bottom block won 3, drew 7, lost 3 of 13 (1.23 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 2 of 3 (1.00 a game). ### Partick Thistle -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 3rd of 10 after 9 games, with 18 points. Last season it finished 2nd of 10 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the top block (1st to 3rd). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 9 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (4th to 7th). Against that block it has won 10, drew 8, lost 1 of 19 -- 38 points of 57. At home against them: won 7 of 11. Away against them: won 3 of 8. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 5, lost 2 of 9 (1.22 a game); against the middle block won 10, drew 8, lost 1 of 19 (2.00 a game); against the bottom block won 8, drew 4, lost 1 of 13 (2.15 a game); against sides new to the division won 2, drew 1, lost 1 of 4 (1.75 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **-0.37 points a game is the venue form gap, in Partick Thistle's favour: Ayr United takes 1.04 a game at home over the last two seasons, Partick Thistle 1.41 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Ayr United -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 1, drew 2, lost 2 of 5, scoring 5 and conceding 6. Last season at home: won 4, drew 7, lost 7 of 18, scoring 17 and conceding 22 -- 1.06 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: drew with Dunfermline Athletic 1-1 at home; beat Livingston 2-1 away; lost to Stenhousemuir 0-1 at home; beat Queen's Park 2-0 away; lost to Inverness CT 1-3 at home. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 3 different managers took its 22 matches with one recorded (10, 6, 6 apiece), most recently Gary Naysmith with 10. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Partick Thistle -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 2, drew 1, lost 1 of 4, scoring 4 and conceding 3. Last season away: won 5, drew 9, lost 4 of 18, scoring 23 and conceding 24 -- 1.33 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Livingston 2-1 away; beat Arbroath 3-0 at home; drew with Raith Rovers 0-0 at home; lost to Stenhousemuir 0-1 away; beat Ayr United 1-0 at home. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 20 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Mark Wilson. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Ayr United scores heaviest in the 16-30 spell and concedes heaviest in 1-15; Partick Thistle scores heaviest in 1-15 and concedes heaviest in 61-75. The shapes mesh: Partick Thistle's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Ayr United is softest.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Ayr United scores most in the 16-30 band (11 of 48); Ayr United concedes most in the 1-15 band (11 of 58); Partick Thistle scores most in the 1-15 band (15 of 63); Partick Thistle concedes most in the 61-75 band (8 of 39). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Ayr United -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.0 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 46 league matches; at home, 1.0 for and 1.2 against over 23. - **When it scores:** Of 48 scored across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 10; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 3; 76-90+: 8. - **When it concedes:** Of 58 conceded across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 11. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 11 of 58 (19%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 21 of its 46 read -- then won 11, drew 7, lost 3; conceded first in 21 -- pulled back 0 wins and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 7 of its 46 read, winning 6 of them; trailed by two in 8, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 11. ### Partick Thistle -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.4 and concedes 0.9 a game over its last 45 league matches; away, 1.2 for and 1.2 against over 22. - **When it scores:** Of 63 scored across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 15; 16-30: 12; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest scoring spell is the first 15 minutes -- 15 of 63 (24%). - **When it concedes:** Of 39 conceded across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 4; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 6; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 7. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 25 of its 45 read -- then won 17, drew 7, lost 1; conceded first in 13 -- pulled back 5 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 20 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 12 of its 45 read, winning 11 of them; trailed by two in 5, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 9. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 38% of their games, both teams scoring in 55%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 31%. On the record this leans a tight match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Ayr United's numbers over its games, Partick Thistle's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Ayr United's own 23 home matches read, one appeared in 6 (26%). In Partick Thistle's own 22 away matches read, 8 (36%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 31% of games. ### Ayr United -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 17 of its own 46 (37%); over 1.5 in 33 (72%); over 3.5 in 7 (15%). At home: over 2.5 in 7 of its 23 (30%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 27 of its own 46 (59%). At home: 13 of its 23 (57%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 10 of its own 46 (22%); failed to score in 13 (28%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Ayr United's own 46 matches read: Ayr United or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 14 (30%). Ayr United itself held the lead in 7, winning 6. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 6 of 23. ### Partick Thistle -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 18 of its own 45 (40%); over 1.5 in 31 (69%); over 3.5 in 10 (22%). Away: over 2.5 in 9 of its 22 (41%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 23 of its own 45 (51%). Away: 13 of its 22 (59%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 19 of its own 45 (42%); failed to score in 10 (22%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Partick Thistle's own 45 matches read: Partick Thistle or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 17 (38%). Partick Thistle itself held the lead in 12, winning 11. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 8 of 22. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **The table makes Partick Thistle the bigger side: 2nd against 7th of 10 last season. Against the block the other keeps: Ayr United takes 0.86 points a game, Partick Thistle 2.00 -- the block form is Partick Thistle's. -0.37 points a game is the venue form gap, in Partick Thistle's favour: Ayr United takes 1.04 a game at home over the last two seasons, Partick Thistle 1.41 away. Ayr United scores heaviest in the 16-30 spell and concedes heaviest in 1-15; Partick Thistle scores heaviest in 1-15 and concedes heaviest in 61-75. The shapes mesh: Partick Thistle's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Ayr United is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 38% of their games, both teams scoring in 55%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 31%. On the record this leans a tight match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Partick Thistle lands the first blow more often (25 of 45 to 21 of 46); Ayr United is at its softest in the opening quarter-hour (11 of its 58 conceded before the 16th); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Partick Thistle's -- two goals clear in 12 of 45, against 7 of 46; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Ayr United's hands -- ahead without winning in 11 of 46; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Partick Thistle's hands -- ahead without winning in 9 of 45. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Ayr United 0.97 goals expected, Partick Thistle 1.31, from two seasons of scoring rates (23 home matches and 22 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Ayr United 3.63 (28%), the draw 3.57 (28%), Partick Thistle 2.25 (44%). The market's averages: 4.00, 3.60 and 1.70. The widest gap is on Partick Thistle: the market is shorter (1.70) than our 2.25 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 2.51 (40%), under 2.5 1.66 (60%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.80, under 2.5 2.00. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 2.21 (45%), no 1.83 (55%). The market's averages: yes 1.75, no 2.03. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Ayr United's own 23 home matches read, one appeared in 6 (26%). In Partick Thistle's own 22 away matches read, 8 (36%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 31% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/scottish-championship/2026-10-16/ayr-united-v-partick-thistle/halftime/ Built 2026-10-14T21:01:14+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.