# Dunfermline Athletic v Livingston — the Match Wizard Scottish Championship, game week 11 — Saturday, 17 October 2026, kick-off 15:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Dunfermline Athletic: 44 league matches in the bank, 8 from this season and the rest from last season. Livingston: 48 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season in the Scottish Premiership. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Livingston is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Dunfermline Athletic -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 5th of 10 after 8 games, with 13 points. Last season it finished 4th of 10 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (4th to 7th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 8 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side new to its division. Against that block it has won 0, drew 1, lost 1 of 2. Away against them: won 0 of 2. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 2, drew 4, lost 7 of 13 (0.77 a game); against the middle block won 9, drew 4, lost 3 of 16 (1.94 a game); against the bottom block won 6, drew 4, lost 3 of 13 (1.69 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 1, lost 1 of 2 (0.50 a game). ### Livingston -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 4th of 10 after 10 games, with 13 points. It was not in this division last season -- it came down from the Scottish Premiership, where it finished 12th of 12. - **Its block:** New to the division this season, so it takes no block from last season's final table. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (4th to 7th). Against that block it has won 4, drew 7, lost 7 of 18 -- 19 points of 54. At home against them: won 3 of 8. Away against them: won 1 of 10. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 0, drew 2, lost 13 of 15 (0.13 a game); against the middle block won 4, drew 7, lost 7 of 18 (1.06 a game); against the bottom block won 2, drew 6, lost 5 of 13 (0.92 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 1, lost 1 of 2 (0.50 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+0.90 points a game is the venue form gap, in Dunfermline Athletic's favour: Dunfermline Athletic takes 1.57 a game at home over the last two seasons, Livingston 0.67 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Dunfermline Athletic -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 2, drew 1, lost 0 of 3, scoring 4 and conceding 1. Last season at home: won 7, drew 5, lost 6 of 18, scoring 24 and conceding 19 -- 1.44 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: drew with Ayr United 1-1 away; beat Greenock Morton 1-0 away; beat Queen's Park 2-0 at home; drew with Arbroath 1-1 away; beat Raith Rovers 1-0 at home. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 24 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Neil Lennon. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Livingston -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 2, drew 0, lost 2 of 4, scoring 6 and conceding 4. Last season away in the Scottish Premiership: won 1, drew 7, lost 12 of 20, scoring 16 and conceding 39 -- 0.50 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Partick Thistle 1-2 at home; lost to Ayr United 1-2 at home; beat Raith Rovers 2-0 away; drew with Inverness CT 2-2 at home; beat Greenock Morton 4-1 away. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 24 matches with one recorded (18, 6 apiece), most recently Marvin Bartley with 6. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Dunfermline Athletic scores heaviest in the 46-60 spell and concedes heaviest in 1-15; Livingston scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Dunfermline Athletic scores most in the 46-60 band (13 of 59); Dunfermline Athletic concedes most in the 1-15 band (12 of 46); Livingston scores most in the 76-90+ band (15 of 54); Livingston concedes most in the 76-90+ band (21 of 86). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Dunfermline Athletic -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.0 a game over its last 44 league matches; at home, 1.3 for and 1.0 against over 21. - **When it scores:** Of 59 scored across its own 44 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 13. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 13 of 59 (22%). - **When it concedes:** Of 46 conceded across its own 44 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 12; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 6; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 7. Its heaviest conceding spell is the first 15 minutes -- 12 of 46 (26%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 22 of its 44 read -- then won 16, drew 4, lost 2; conceded first in 18 -- pulled back 1 win and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 9 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 11 of its 44 read, winning 11 of them; trailed by two in 12, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 6. ### Livingston -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.1 and concedes 1.8 a game over its last 48 league matches; away, 0.9 for and 1.8 against over 24. - **When it scores:** Of 54 scored across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 15. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 15 of 54 (28%). - **When it concedes:** Of 86 conceded across its own 48 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 16; 16-30: 13; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 21. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 21 of 86 (24%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 16 of its 48 read -- then won 6, drew 6, lost 4; conceded first in 29 -- pulled back 0 wins and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 9 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 7 of its 48 read, winning 6 of them; trailed by two in 16, rescuing 3 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 12. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 48% of their games, both teams scoring in 48%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 51%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Dunfermline Athletic's numbers over its games, Livingston's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Dunfermline Athletic's own 21 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (48%). In Livingston's own 24 away matches read, 13 (54%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 51% of games. ### Dunfermline Athletic -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 17 of its own 44 (39%); over 1.5 in 32 (73%); over 3.5 in 11 (25%). At home: over 2.5 in 8 of its 21 (38%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 16 of its own 44 (36%). At home: 7 of its 21 (33%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 19 of its own 44 (43%); failed to score in 13 (30%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Dunfermline Athletic's own 44 matches read: Dunfermline Athletic or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 23 (52%). Dunfermline Athletic itself held the lead in 11, winning 11. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 10 of 21. ### Livingston -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 28 of its own 48 (58%); over 1.5 in 40 (83%); over 3.5 in 17 (35%). Away: over 2.5 in 12 of its 24 (50%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 29 of its own 48 (60%). Away: 10 of its 24 (42%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 7 of its own 48 (15%); failed to score in 15 (31%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Livingston's own 48 matches read: Livingston or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 23 (48%). Livingston itself held the lead in 7, winning 6. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 13 of 24. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Livingston is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. +0.90 points a game is the venue form gap, in Dunfermline Athletic's favour: Dunfermline Athletic takes 1.57 a game at home over the last two seasons, Livingston 0.67 away. Dunfermline Athletic scores heaviest in the 46-60 spell and concedes heaviest in 1-15; Livingston scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 48% of their games, both teams scoring in 48%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 51%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Dunfermline Athletic lands the first blow more often (22 of 44 to 16 of 48); Dunfermline Athletic is at its softest in the opening quarter-hour (12 of its 46 conceded before the 16th); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Dunfermline Athletic's -- two goals clear in 11 of 44, against 7 of 48; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Livingston's hands -- ahead without winning in 12 of 48; Livingston finds its goals latest of all -- 15 of its 54 after the 75th. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Dunfermline Athletic 1.70 goals expected, Livingston 0.86, from two seasons of scoring rates (21 home matches and 24 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: Livingston's figures include last season in the Scottish Premiership, where goals came against different company. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Dunfermline Athletic 1.75 (57%), the draw 4.18 (24%), Livingston 5.31 (19%). The market's averages: 2.50, 3.30 and 2.35. The widest gap is on Livingston: the market is shorter (2.35) than our 5.31 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 2.13 (47%), under 2.5 1.89 (53%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.74, under 2.5 1.95. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 2.13 (47%), no 1.89 (53%). The market's averages: yes 1.62, no 2.20. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Dunfermline Athletic's own 21 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (48%). In Livingston's own 24 away matches read, 13 (54%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 51% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/scottish-championship/2026-10-17/dunfermline-athletic-v-livingston/halftime/ Built 2026-10-16T06:05:12+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.