# Stenhousemuir v Raith Rovers — the Match Wizard Scottish Championship, game week 11 — Saturday, 17 October 2026, kick-off 15:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Stenhousemuir: 45 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season in the Scottish League One. Raith Rovers: 46 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Stenhousemuir is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. Against the block the other keeps: Stenhousemuir takes 2.00 points a game, Raith Rovers 1.33 -- the block form is Stenhousemuir's.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Stenhousemuir -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 1st of 10 after 9 games, with 22 points. It was not in this division last season -- it came up from the Scottish League One, where it finished 2nd of 10. - **Its block:** New to the division this season, so it takes no block from last season's final table. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (4th to 7th). Against that block it has won 11, drew 5, lost 3 of 19 -- 38 points of 57. At home against them: won 5 of 8. Away against them: won 6 of 11. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 5, drew 5, lost 0 of 10 (2.00 a game); against the middle block won 11, drew 5, lost 3 of 19 (2.00 a game); against the bottom block won 7, drew 4, lost 2 of 13 (1.92 a game); against sides new to the division won 2, drew 0, lost 1 of 3 (2.00 a game). ### Raith Rovers -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 2nd of 10 after 10 games, with 20 points. Last season it finished 5th of 10 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (4th to 7th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 10 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side new to its division. Against that block it has won 1, drew 1, lost 1 of 3 -- 4 points of 9. At home against them: won 0 of 2. Away against them: won 1 of 1. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 3, drew 5, lost 6 of 14 (1.00 a game); against the middle block won 8, drew 1, lost 7 of 16 (1.56 a game); against the bottom block won 6, drew 4, lost 3 of 13 (1.69 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 1, lost 1 of 3 (1.33 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+1.14 points a game is the venue form gap, in Stenhousemuir's favour: Stenhousemuir takes 2.23 a game at home over the last two seasons, Raith Rovers 1.09 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Stenhousemuir -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 4, drew 0, lost 0 of 4, scoring 7 and conceding 1. Last season at home in the Scottish League One: won 10, drew 7, lost 1 of 18, scoring 30 and conceding 12 -- 2.06 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Inverness CT 0-2 away; beat Ayr United 1-0 away; beat Arbroath 1-0 at home; beat Partick Thistle 1-0 at home; beat Livingston 1-0 away. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 22 matches with one recorded (13, 9 apiece), most recently Marvin Bartley with 9. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Raith Rovers -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 3, drew 1, lost 1 of 5, scoring 6 and conceding 3. Last season away: won 3, drew 6, lost 9 of 18, scoring 9 and conceding 20 -- 0.83 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Queen's Park 2-0 at home; beat Greenock Morton 2-1 away; lost to Livingston 0-2 at home; drew with Partick Thistle 0-0 away; beat Arbroath 4-0 at home. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 22 matches with one recorded (15, 7 apiece), most recently Dougie Imrie with 15. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Stenhousemuir scores heaviest in the 46-60 spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Raith Rovers scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Stenhousemuir scores most in the 46-60 band (15 of 61); Stenhousemuir concedes most in the 46-60 band (8 of 31); Raith Rovers scores most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 58); Raith Rovers concedes most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 48). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Stenhousemuir -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.4 and concedes 0.7 a game over its last 45 league matches; at home, 1.7 for and 0.6 against over 22. - **When it scores:** Of 61 scored across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 5; 76-90+: 14. - **When it concedes:** Of 31 conceded across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 3; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 5; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 3; 76-90+: 5. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 30 of its 45 read -- then won 24, drew 5, lost 1; conceded first in 11 -- pulled back 1 win and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 13 of its 45 read, winning 12 of them; trailed by two in 6, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 6. ### Raith Rovers -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.0 a game over its last 46 league matches; away, 0.7 for and 1.0 against over 23. - **When it scores:** Of 58 scored across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 58 (24%). - **When it concedes:** Of 48 conceded across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 11; 46-60: 6; 61-75: 4; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 48 (29%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 17 of its 46 read -- then won 15, drew 2, lost 0; conceded first in 21 -- pulled back 3 wins and 1 draw from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 10 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 13 of its 46 read, winning 13 of them; trailed by two in 15, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 2. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 34% of their games, both teams scoring in 34%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 47%. On the record this leans a tight match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Stenhousemuir's numbers over its games, Raith Rovers's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Stenhousemuir's own 22 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (45%). In Raith Rovers's own 23 away matches read, 11 (48%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 47% of games. ### Stenhousemuir -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 13 of its own 45 (29%); over 1.5 in 28 (62%); over 3.5 in 9 (20%). At home: over 2.5 in 9 of its 22 (41%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 16 of its own 45 (36%). At home: 9 of its 22 (41%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 24 of its own 45 (53%); failed to score in 9 (20%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Stenhousemuir's own 45 matches read: Stenhousemuir or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 19 (42%). Stenhousemuir itself held the lead in 13, winning 12. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 10 of 22. ### Raith Rovers -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 18 of its own 46 (39%); over 1.5 in 35 (76%); over 3.5 in 8 (17%). Away: over 2.5 in 7 of its 23 (30%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 15 of its own 46 (33%). Away: 6 of its 23 (26%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 20 of its own 46 (43%); failed to score in 19 (41%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Raith Rovers's own 46 matches read: Raith Rovers or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 28 (61%). Raith Rovers itself held the lead in 13, winning 13. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 11 of 23. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Stenhousemuir is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. Against the block the other keeps: Stenhousemuir takes 2.00 points a game, Raith Rovers 1.33 -- the block form is Stenhousemuir's. +1.14 points a game is the venue form gap, in Stenhousemuir's favour: Stenhousemuir takes 2.23 a game at home over the last two seasons, Raith Rovers 1.09 away. Stenhousemuir scores heaviest in the 46-60 spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Raith Rovers scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 34% of their games, both teams scoring in 34%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 47%. On the record this leans a tight match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Stenhousemuir lands the first blow more often (30 of 45 to 17 of 46); Raith Rovers finds its goals latest of all -- 14 of its 58 after the 75th. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Stenhousemuir 1.29 goals expected, Raith Rovers 0.48, from two seasons of scoring rates (22 home matches and 23 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: Stenhousemuir's figures include last season in the Scottish League One, where goals came against different company. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Stenhousemuir 1.76 (57%), the draw 3.40 (29%), Raith Rovers 7.29 (14%). The market's averages: 3.14, 3.10 and 2.18. The widest gap is on Stenhousemuir: the market offers 3.14 against our 1.76. If our figures are right that is value; nothing proves they are. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 3.86 (26%), under 2.5 1.35 (74%). The market's averages: over 2.5 2.18, under 2.5 1.65. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 3.65 (27%), no 1.38 (73%). The market's averages: yes 1.90, no 1.87. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Stenhousemuir's own 22 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (45%). In Raith Rovers's own 23 away matches read, 11 (48%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 47% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/scottish-championship/2026-10-17/stenhousemuir-v-raith-rovers/halftime/ Built 2026-10-16T06:05:10+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.