# Inverness CT v Livingston — the Match Wizard Scottish Championship, game week 14 — Saturday, 7 November 2026, kick-off 15:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Inverness CT: 49 league matches in the bank, 13 from this season and the rest from last season in the Scottish League One. Livingston: 50 league matches in the bank, 13 from this season and the rest from last season in the Scottish Premiership. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Inverness CT is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. Against the block the other keeps: Inverness CT takes 1.33 points a game, Livingston 1.33 -- nothing between them.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Inverness CT -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 6th of 10 after 13 games, with 19 points. It was not in this division last season -- it came up from the Scottish League One, where it finished 1st of 10. - **Its block:** New to the division this season, so it takes no block from last season's final table. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side new to its division. Against that block it has won 1, drew 1, lost 1 of 3 -- 4 points of 9. At home against them: won 1 of 1. Away against them: won 0 of 2. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 3, drew 6, lost 2 of 11 (1.36 a game); against the middle block won 13, drew 5, lost 4 of 22 (2.00 a game); against the bottom block won 9, drew 3, lost 1 of 13 (2.31 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 1, lost 1 of 3 (1.33 a game). ### Livingston -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 5th of 10 after 13 games, with 20 points. It was not in this division last season -- it came down from the Scottish Premiership, where it finished 12th of 12. - **Its block:** New to the division this season, so it takes no block from last season's final table. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side new to its division. Against that block it has won 1, drew 1, lost 1 of 3 -- 4 points of 9. At home against them: won 0 of 2. Away against them: won 1 of 1. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 1, drew 2, lost 13 of 16 (0.31 a game); against the middle block won 4, drew 8, lost 7 of 19 (1.05 a game); against the bottom block won 2, drew 5, lost 5 of 12 (0.92 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 1, lost 1 of 3 (1.33 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+1.49 points a game is the venue form gap, in Inverness CT's favour: Inverness CT takes 2.25 a game at home over the last two seasons, Livingston 0.76 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Inverness CT -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 3, drew 2, lost 1 of 6, scoring 7 and conceding 3. Last season at home in the Scottish League One: won 13, drew 4, lost 1 of 18, scoring 38 and conceding 12 -- 2.39 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Dunfermline Athletic 1-5 away; beat Raith Rovers 2-0 away; beat Arbroath 2-0 at home; lost to Queen's Park 1-2 away; beat Stenhousemuir 2-0 at home. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 24 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Scott Kellacher. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Livingston -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 3, drew 1, lost 2 of 6, scoring 9 and conceding 4. Last season away in the Scottish Premiership: won 1, drew 6, lost 12 of 19, scoring 14 and conceding 37 -- 0.47 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Stenhousemuir 3-0 away; beat Arbroath 1-0 at home; drew with Dunfermline Athletic 0-0 away; lost to Partick Thistle 1-2 at home; lost to Ayr United 1-2 at home. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 23 matches with one recorded (17, 6 apiece), most recently Marvin Bartley with 6. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Inverness CT scores heaviest in the 61-75 spell and concedes heaviest in 16-30; Livingston scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Inverness CT scores most in the 61-75 band (16 of 77); Inverness CT concedes most in the 16-30 band (9 of 40); Livingston scores most in the 76-90+ band (15 of 56); Livingston concedes most in the 76-90+ band (21 of 84). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Inverness CT -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.6 and concedes 0.8 a game over its last 49 league matches; at home, 1.9 for and 0.6 against over 24. - **When it scores:** Of 77 scored across its own 49 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 14; 16-30: 10; 31-45+: 15; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 16; 76-90+: 9. - **When it concedes:** Of 40 conceded across its own 49 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 3; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 5; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 7; 76-90+: 9. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 9 of 40 (22%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 33 of its 49 read -- then won 25, drew 4, lost 4; conceded first in 12 -- pulled back 1 win and 7 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 10 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 19 of its 49 read, winning 19 of them; trailed by two in 5, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 9. ### Livingston -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.1 and concedes 1.7 a game over its last 50 league matches; away, 0.9 for and 1.6 against over 25. - **When it scores:** Of 56 scored across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 4; 76-90+: 15. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 15 of 56 (27%). - **When it concedes:** Of 84 conceded across its own 50 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 16; 16-30: 13; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 11; 76-90+: 21. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 21 of 84 (25%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 18 of its 50 read -- then won 8, drew 6, lost 4; conceded first in 28 -- pulled back 0 wins and 6 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 8 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 8 of its 50 read, winning 7 of them; trailed by two in 15, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 12. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 47% of their games, both teams scoring in 51%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 55%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Inverness CT's numbers over its games, Livingston's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Inverness CT's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 14 (58%). In Livingston's own 25 away matches read, 13 (52%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 55% of games. ### Inverness CT -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 19 of its own 49 (39%); over 1.5 in 37 (76%); over 3.5 in 13 (27%). At home: over 2.5 in 10 of its 24 (42%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 23 of its own 49 (47%). At home: 11 of its 24 (46%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 24 of its own 49 (49%); failed to score in 6 (12%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Inverness CT's own 49 matches read: Inverness CT or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 24 (49%). Inverness CT itself held the lead in 19, winning 19. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 14 of 24. ### Livingston -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 28 of its own 50 (56%); over 1.5 in 40 (80%); over 3.5 in 16 (32%). Away: over 2.5 in 12 of its 25 (48%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 28 of its own 50 (56%). Away: 9 of its 25 (36%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 10 of its own 50 (20%); failed to score in 16 (32%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Livingston's own 50 matches read: Livingston or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 23 (46%). Livingston itself held the lead in 8, winning 7. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 13 of 25. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Inverness CT is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. Against the block the other keeps: Inverness CT takes 1.33 points a game, Livingston 1.33 -- nothing between them. +1.49 points a game is the venue form gap, in Inverness CT's favour: Inverness CT takes 2.25 a game at home over the last two seasons, Livingston 0.76 away. Inverness CT scores heaviest in the 61-75 spell and concedes heaviest in 16-30; Livingston scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 47% of their games, both teams scoring in 51%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 55%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Inverness CT lands the first blow more often (33 of 49 to 18 of 50); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Inverness CT's -- two goals clear in 19 of 49, against 8 of 50; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Inverness CT's hands -- ahead without winning in 9 of 49; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Livingston's hands -- ahead without winning in 12 of 50; Livingston finds its goals latest of all -- 15 of its 56 after the 75th. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Inverness CT 2.09 goals expected, Livingston 0.63, from two seasons of scoring rates (24 home matches and 25 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: Inverness CT's figures include last season in the Scottish League One, where goals came against different company; Livingston's figures include last season in the Scottish Premiership, where goals came against different company. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Inverness CT 1.40 (71%), the draw 5.38 (19%), Livingston 10 (10%). The market's averages: 2.50, 3.20 and 2.50. The widest gap is on Inverness CT: the market offers 2.50 against our 1.40. If our figures are right that is value; nothing proves they are. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 1.96 (51%), under 2.5 2.04 (49%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.90, under 2.5 1.87. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 2.45 (41%), no 1.69 (59%). The market's averages: yes 1.70, no 2.04. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Inverness CT's own 24 home matches read, one appeared in 14 (58%). In Livingston's own 25 away matches read, 13 (52%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 55% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/scottish-championship/2026-11-07/inverness-ct-v-livingston/halftime/ Built 2026-11-05T10:04:22+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.