# Queen of the South v Airdrieonians — the Match Wizard Scottish League One, game week 6 — Saturday, 5 September 2026, kick-off 15:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Queen of the South: 40 league matches in the bank, 4 from this season and the rest from last season. Airdrieonians: 41 league matches in the bank, 5 from this season and the rest from last season in the Scottish Championship. Look and learn: it is early in the season, so nearly everything counted here was earned last season -- by squads and dugouts a summer window may have reshaped. Treat the first five weeks as pointers while the new shapes settle, not proof. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Airdrieonians is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Queen of the South -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 10th of 10 after 4 games, with 0 points -- too few games yet to mean much. Last season it finished 3rd of 10 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the top block (1st to 3rd). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 4 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side new to its division. Against that block it has won 0, drew 0, lost 1 of 1. Away against them: won 0 of 1. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 0, drew 5, lost 3 of 8 (0.62 a game); against the middle block won 9, drew 3, lost 6 of 18 (1.67 a game); against the bottom block won 6, drew 3, lost 4 of 13 (1.62 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 0, lost 1 of 1 (0.00 a game). ### Airdrieonians -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 9th of 10 after 5 games, with 3 points -- too few games yet to mean much. It was not in this division last season -- it came down from the Scottish Championship, where it finished 9th of 10. - **Its block:** New to the division this season, so it takes no block from last season's final table. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the top block (1st to 3rd). Against that block it has won 1, drew 4, lost 7 of 12 -- 7 points of 36. At home against them: won 1 of 6. Away against them: won 0 of 6. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 1, drew 4, lost 7 of 12 (0.58 a game); against the middle block won 3, drew 7, lost 8 of 18 (0.89 a game); against the bottom block won 4, drew 3, lost 2 of 9 (1.67 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 1, lost 1 of 2 (0.50 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+0.60 points a game is the venue form gap, in Queen of the South's favour: Queen of the South takes 1.60 a game at home over the last two seasons, Airdrieonians 1.00 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Queen of the South -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 0, drew 0, lost 2 of 2, scoring 0 and conceding 3. Last season at home: won 9, drew 5, lost 4 of 18, scoring 31 and conceding 21 -- 1.78 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Montrose 1-2 away; lost to Alloa Athletic 0-2 at home; lost to Peterhead 0-1 at home; lost to East Kilbride 1-5 away; beat Alloa Athletic 4-1 away. The last of these is from last season. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 16 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Peter Murphy. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Airdrieonians -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 0, drew 1, lost 1 of 2, scoring 0 and conceding 4. Last season away in the Scottish Championship: won 5, drew 4, lost 9 of 18, scoring 19 and conceding 25 -- 1.06 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: drew with East Fife 0-0 at home; lost to Ross County 1-3 at home; lost to Hamilton Academical 0-4 away; drew with East Kilbride 1-1 at home; drew with Cove Rangers 0-0 away. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 3 different managers took its 10 matches with one recorded (5, 3, 2 apiece), most recently John Rankin with 5. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Queen of the South scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Airdrieonians scores heaviest in 46-60 and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Queen of the South's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Airdrieonians is softest.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Queen of the South scores most in the 76-90+ band (16 of 60); Queen of the South concedes most in the 46-60 band (12 of 55); Airdrieonians scores most in the 46-60 band (10 of 37); Airdrieonians concedes most in the 76-90+ band (14 of 57). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Queen of the South -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.5 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 40 league matches; at home, 1.6 for and 1.2 against over 20. - **When it scores:** Of 60 scored across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 9; 31-45+: 5; 46-60: 14; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 60 (27%). - **When it concedes:** Of 55 conceded across its own 40 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 9. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 18 of its 40 read -- then won 13, drew 5, lost 0; conceded first in 21 -- pulled back 2 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 11 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 11 of its 40 read, winning 11 of them; trailed by two in 11, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 5. ### Airdrieonians -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 0.9 and concedes 1.4 a game over its last 41 league matches; away, 0.9 for and 1.4 against over 20. - **When it scores:** Of 37 scored across its own 41 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 3; 31-45+: 4; 46-60: 10; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 7. - **When it concedes:** Of 57 conceded across its own 41 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 14. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 14 of 57 (25%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 13 of its 41 read -- then won 6, drew 5, lost 2; conceded first in 22 -- pulled back 2 wins and 4 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 11 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 6 of its 41 read, winning 5 of them; trailed by two in 11, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 7. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 48% of their games, both teams scoring in 51%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 50%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Queen of the South's numbers over its games, Airdrieonians's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Queen of the South's own 20 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (50%). In Airdrieonians's own 20 away matches read, 10 (50%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 50% of games. ### Queen of the South -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 20 of its own 40 (50%); over 1.5 in 36 (90%); over 3.5 in 12 (30%). At home: over 2.5 in 10 of its 20 (50%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 23 of its own 40 (58%). At home: 11 of its 20 (55%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 9 of its own 40 (22%); failed to score in 9 (22%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Queen of the South's own 40 matches read: Queen of the South or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 22 (55%). Queen of the South itself held the lead in 11, winning 11. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 10 of 20. ### Airdrieonians -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 19 of its own 41 (46%); over 1.5 in 27 (66%); over 3.5 in 11 (27%). Away: over 2.5 in 9 of its 20 (45%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 18 of its own 41 (44%). Away: 7 of its 20 (35%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 11 of its own 41 (27%); failed to score in 18 (44%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Airdrieonians's own 41 matches read: Airdrieonians or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 17 (41%). Airdrieonians itself held the lead in 6, winning 5. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 10 of 20. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Airdrieonians is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. +0.60 points a game is the venue form gap, in Queen of the South's favour: Queen of the South takes 1.60 a game at home over the last two seasons, Airdrieonians 1.00 away. Queen of the South scores heaviest in the 76-90+ spell and concedes heaviest in 46-60; Airdrieonians scores heaviest in 46-60 and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Queen of the South's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Airdrieonians is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 48% of their games, both teams scoring in 51%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 50%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Queen of the South lands the first blow more often (18 of 40 to 13 of 41); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Queen of the South's -- two goals clear in 11 of 40, against 6 of 41; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Airdrieonians's hands -- ahead without winning in 7 of 41; Queen of the South finds its goals latest of all -- 16 of its 60 after the 75th, and Airdrieonians concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Queen of the South 1.55 goals expected, Airdrieonians 1.00, from two seasons of scoring rates (20 home matches and 20 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: Airdrieonians's figures include last season in the Scottish Championship, where goals came against different company. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Queen of the South 2.00 (50%), the draw 3.93 (25%), Airdrieonians 4.09 (24%). The market's averages: 2.40, 3.50 and 2.34. The widest gap is on Airdrieonians: the market is shorter (2.34) than our 4.09 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 2.12 (47%), under 2.5 1.89 (53%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.78, under 2.5 1.89. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 2.00 (50%), no 2.00 (50%). The market's averages: yes 1.62, no 2.15. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Queen of the South's own 20 home matches read, one appeared in 10 (50%). In Airdrieonians's own 20 away matches read, 10 (50%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 50% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/scottish-league-one/2026-09-05/queen-of-the-south-v-airdrieonians/halftime/ Built 2026-09-05T05:39:18+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.