# Airdrieonians v Hamilton Academical — the Match Wizard Scottish League One, game week 11 — Saturday, 17 October 2026, kick-off 17:30 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Airdrieonians: 46 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season in the Scottish Championship. Hamilton Academical: 45 league matches in the bank, 9 from this season and the rest from last season. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Airdrieonians is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Airdrieonians -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 5th of 10 after 10 games, with 13 points. It was not in this division last season -- it came down from the Scottish Championship, where it finished 9th of 10. - **Its block:** New to the division this season, so it takes no block from last season's final table. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (4th to 7th). Against that block it has won 5, drew 7, lost 8 of 20 -- 22 points of 60. At home against them: won 2 of 9. Away against them: won 3 of 11. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 1, drew 4, lost 8 of 13 (0.54 a game); against the middle block won 5, drew 7, lost 8 of 20 (1.10 a game); against the bottom block won 5, drew 3, lost 2 of 10 (1.80 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 2, lost 1 of 3 (0.67 a game). ### Hamilton Academical -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 2nd of 10 after 9 games, with 25 points. Last season it finished 5th of 10 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (4th to 7th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 9 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side new to its division. Against that block it has won 2, drew 0, lost 0 of 2. At home against them: won 1 of 1. Away against them: won 1 of 1. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 4, drew 1, lost 8 of 13 (1.00 a game); against the middle block won 10, drew 3, lost 3 of 16 (2.06 a game); against the bottom block won 8, drew 4, lost 2 of 14 (2.00 a game); against sides new to the division won 2, drew 0, lost 0 of 2 (3.00 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **-0.41 points a game is the venue form gap, in Hamilton Academical's favour: Airdrieonians takes 1.09 a game at home over the last two seasons, Hamilton Academical 1.50 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Airdrieonians -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 2, drew 2, lost 1 of 5, scoring 4 and conceding 4. Last season at home in the Scottish Championship: won 3, drew 8, lost 7 of 18, scoring 16 and conceding 24 -- 0.94 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: drew with East Kilbride 2-2 away; beat Montrose 1-0 at home; beat Peterhead 2-1 away; beat Alloa Athletic 1-0 at home; lost to Queen of the South 1-2 away. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 3 different managers took its 15 matches with one recorded (10, 3, 2 apiece), most recently John Rankin with 10. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Hamilton Academical -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 3, drew 1, lost 0 of 4, scoring 9 and conceding 0. Last season away: won 6, drew 5, lost 7 of 18, scoring 28 and conceding 27 -- 1.28 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: beat Alloa Athletic 3-0 away; beat Peterhead 2-1 at home; beat Queen of the South 4-1 at home; beat East Kilbride 1-0 away; beat Cove Rangers 1-0 at home. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 7 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by John Rankin. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Airdrieonians scores heaviest in the 46-60 spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Hamilton Academical scores heaviest in 16-30 and concedes heaviest in 46-60. The shapes mesh: Airdrieonians's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Hamilton Academical is softest.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Airdrieonians scores most in the 46-60 band (11 of 44); Airdrieonians concedes most in the 76-90+ band (16 of 62); Hamilton Academical scores most in the 16-30 band (14 of 74); Hamilton Academical concedes most in the 46-60 band (12 of 45). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Airdrieonians -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.0 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 46 league matches; at home, 0.9 for and 1.2 against over 23. - **When it scores:** Of 44 scored across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 6; 16-30: 3; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 8. - **When it concedes:** Of 62 conceded across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 9; 46-60: 8; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 16. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 16 of 62 (26%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 17 of its 46 read -- then won 9, drew 5, lost 3; conceded first in 23 -- pulled back 2 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 12 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 6 of its 46 read, winning 5 of them; trailed by two in 12, rescuing 2 results; was ahead at some point without winning in 8. ### Hamilton Academical -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.6 and concedes 1.0 a game over its last 45 league matches; away, 1.7 for and 1.2 against over 22. - **When it scores:** Of 74 scored across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 14; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 13. - **When it concedes:** Of 45 conceded across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 5; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 8; 76-90+: 6. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 27 of its 45 read -- then won 23, drew 2, lost 2; conceded first in 14 -- pulled back 1 win and 2 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 5 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 17 of its 45 read, winning 16 of them; trailed by two in 7, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 4. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 53% of their games, both teams scoring in 42%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 45%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Airdrieonians's numbers over its games, Hamilton Academical's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Airdrieonians's own 23 home matches read, one appeared in 7 (30%). In Hamilton Academical's own 22 away matches read, 13 (59%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 45% of games. ### Airdrieonians -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 22 of its own 46 (48%); over 1.5 in 30 (65%); over 3.5 in 12 (26%). At home: over 2.5 in 10 of its 23 (43%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 21 of its own 46 (46%). At home: 11 of its 23 (48%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 13 of its own 46 (28%); failed to score in 18 (39%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Airdrieonians's own 46 matches read: Airdrieonians or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 18 (39%). Airdrieonians itself held the lead in 6, winning 5. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 7 of 23. ### Hamilton Academical -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 26 of its own 45 (58%); over 1.5 in 32 (71%); over 3.5 in 15 (33%). Away: over 2.5 in 15 of its 22 (68%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 17 of its own 45 (38%). Away: 8 of its 22 (36%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 21 of its own 45 (47%); failed to score in 11 (24%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Hamilton Academical's own 45 matches read: Hamilton Academical or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 24 (53%). Hamilton Academical itself held the lead in 17, winning 16. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 13 of 22. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Airdrieonians is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. -0.41 points a game is the venue form gap, in Hamilton Academical's favour: Airdrieonians takes 1.09 a game at home over the last two seasons, Hamilton Academical 1.50 away. Airdrieonians scores heaviest in the 46-60 spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Hamilton Academical scores heaviest in 16-30 and concedes heaviest in 46-60. The shapes mesh: Airdrieonians's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Hamilton Academical is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 53% of their games, both teams scoring in 42%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 45%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: Hamilton Academical lands the first blow more often (27 of 45 to 17 of 46); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often Hamilton Academical's -- two goals clear in 17 of 45, against 6 of 46; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Airdrieonians's hands -- ahead without winning in 8 of 46. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Airdrieonians 0.88 goals expected, Hamilton Academical 1.59, from two seasons of scoring rates (23 home matches and 22 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: Airdrieonians's figures include last season in the Scottish Championship, where goals came against different company. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Airdrieonians 4.79 (21%), the draw 3.97 (25%), Hamilton Academical 1.85 (54%). The market's averages: 3.20, 3.40 and 1.95. The widest gap is on Airdrieonians: the market is shorter (3.20) than our 4.79 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 2.23 (45%), under 2.5 1.81 (55%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.75, under 2.5 2.05. The market is shorter than our number on over 2.5. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 2.14 (47%), no 1.87 (53%). The market's averages: yes 1.61, no 2.12. The market is shorter than our number on yes. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Airdrieonians's own 23 home matches read, one appeared in 7 (30%). In Hamilton Academical's own 22 away matches read, 13 (59%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 45% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/scottish-league-one/2026-10-17/airdrieonians-v-hamilton-academical/halftime/ Built 2026-10-16T06:06:06+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.