# East Kilbride v Montrose — the Match Wizard Scottish League One, game week 11 — Saturday, 17 October 2026, kick-off 15:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. East Kilbride: 46 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season in the Scottish League Two. Montrose: 46 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **East Kilbride is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. Against the block the other keeps: East Kilbride takes 2.14 points a game, Montrose 0.75 -- the block form is East Kilbride's.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### East Kilbride -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 3rd of 10 after 10 games, with 17 points. It was not in this division last season -- it came up from the Scottish League Two, where it finished 1st of 10. - **Its block:** New to the division this season, so it takes no block from last season's final table. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the bottom block (8th to 10th). Against that block it has won 9, drew 3, lost 2 of 14 -- 30 points of 42. At home against them: won 4 of 6. Away against them: won 5 of 8. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 3, drew 3, lost 3 of 9 (1.33 a game); against the middle block won 14, drew 1, lost 5 of 20 (2.15 a game); against the bottom block won 9, drew 3, lost 2 of 14 (2.14 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 2, lost 1 of 3 (0.67 a game). ### Montrose -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 4th of 10 after 10 games, with 15 points. Last season it finished 8th of 10 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the bottom block (8th to 10th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 10 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side new to its division. Against that block it has won 1, drew 0, lost 3 of 4 -- 3 points of 12. At home against them: won 1 of 2. Away against them: won 0 of 2. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 5, drew 2, lost 6 of 13 (1.31 a game); against the middle block won 5, drew 5, lost 10 of 20 (1.00 a game); against the bottom block won 4, drew 3, lost 2 of 9 (1.67 a game); against sides new to the division won 1, drew 0, lost 3 of 4 (0.75 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+1.04 points a game is the venue form gap, in East Kilbride's favour: East Kilbride takes 2.00 a game at home over the last two seasons, Montrose 0.96 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### East Kilbride -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 3, drew 1, lost 1 of 5, scoring 13 and conceding 5. Last season at home in the Scottish League Two: won 11, drew 3, lost 4 of 18, scoring 41 and conceding 23 -- 2.00 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: drew with Airdrieonians 2-2 at home; beat East Fife 3-0 away; beat Alloa Athletic 2-1 away; beat Peterhead 3-1 at home; lost to Hamilton Academical 0-1 at home. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 21 matches with one recorded (20, 1 apiece), most recently Simon Ferry with 1. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Montrose -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 2, drew 0, lost 3 of 5, scoring 6 and conceding 7. Last season away: won 3, drew 7, lost 8 of 18, scoring 23 and conceding 33 -- 0.89 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Ross County 0-5 at home; lost to Airdrieonians 0-1 away; beat East Fife 2-1 away; beat Cove Rangers 2-1 at home; beat Peterhead 3-0 away. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 25 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Stewart Petrie. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **East Kilbride scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Montrose scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 61-75. The shapes mesh: Montrose's strongest scoring spell is exactly where East Kilbride is softest.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: East Kilbride scores most in the 31-45+ band (24 of 96); East Kilbride concedes most in the 31-45+ band (12 of 59); Montrose scores most in the 31-45+ band (14 of 60); Montrose concedes most in the 61-75 band (19 of 85). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### East Kilbride -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 2.1 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 46 league matches; at home, 2.3 for and 1.2 against over 23. - **When it scores:** Of 96 scored across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 16; 16-30: 15; 31-45+: 24; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 16; 76-90+: 14. - **When it concedes:** Of 59 conceded across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 7; 31-45+: 12; 46-60: 9; 61-75: 9; 76-90+: 11. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 28 of its 46 read -- then won 21, drew 6, lost 1; conceded first in 18 -- pulled back 5 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 18 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 25 of its 46 read, winning 23 of them; trailed by two in 9, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 8. ### Montrose -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.3 and concedes 1.8 a game over its last 46 league matches; away, 1.3 for and 1.7 against over 23. - **When it scores:** Of 60 scored across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 9; 16-30: 6; 31-45+: 14; 46-60: 11; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 8. - **When it concedes:** Of 85 conceded across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 14; 31-45+: 13; 46-60: 13; 61-75: 19; 76-90+: 18. - **The first goal:** Scored first in 20 of its 46 read -- then won 13, drew 7, lost 0; conceded first in 26 -- pulled back 2 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 10 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 11 of its 46 read, winning 10 of them; trailed by two in 16, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 8. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 66% of their games, both teams scoring in 58%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 65%. On the record this leans a goals match.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- East Kilbride's numbers over its games, Montrose's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In East Kilbride's own 23 home matches read, one appeared in 19 (83%). In Montrose's own 23 away matches read, 11 (48%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 65% of games. ### East Kilbride -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 32 of its own 46 (70%); over 1.5 in 42 (91%); over 3.5 in 22 (48%). At home: over 2.5 in 17 of its 23 (74%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 27 of its own 46 (59%). At home: 13 of its 23 (57%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 12 of its own 46 (26%); failed to score in 7 (15%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over East Kilbride's own 46 matches read: East Kilbride or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 34 (74%). East Kilbride itself held the lead in 25, winning 23. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 19 of 23. ### Montrose -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 29 of its own 46 (63%); over 1.5 in 41 (89%); over 3.5 in 16 (35%). Away: over 2.5 in 14 of its 23 (61%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 26 of its own 46 (57%). Away: 15 of its 23 (65%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 7 of its own 46 (15%); failed to score in 13 (28%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Montrose's own 46 matches read: Montrose or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 26 (57%). Montrose itself held the lead in 11, winning 10. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 11 of 23. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **East Kilbride is new to this division, so the rank comparison rests on less than a shared season. Against the block the other keeps: East Kilbride takes 2.14 points a game, Montrose 0.75 -- the block form is East Kilbride's. +1.04 points a game is the venue form gap, in East Kilbride's favour: East Kilbride takes 2.00 a game at home over the last two seasons, Montrose 0.96 away. East Kilbride scores heaviest in the 31-45+ spell and concedes heaviest in 31-45+; Montrose scores heaviest in 31-45+ and concedes heaviest in 61-75. The shapes mesh: Montrose's strongest scoring spell is exactly where East Kilbride is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 66% of their games, both teams scoring in 58%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 65%. On the record this leans a goals match.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: East Kilbride lands the first blow more often (28 of 46 to 20 of 46); when a lead builds towards 2UP it is more often East Kilbride's -- two goals clear in 25 of 46, against 11 of 46; a one-goal lead has not been safe in East Kilbride's hands -- ahead without winning in 8 of 46; a one-goal lead has not been safe in Montrose's hands -- ahead without winning in 8 of 46. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: East Kilbride 2.56 goals expected, Montrose 1.26, from two seasons of scoring rates (23 home matches and 23 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. Note: East Kilbride's figures include last season in the Scottish League Two, where goals came against different company. - **Match result:** Our tissue: East Kilbride 1.53 (66%), the draw 5.72 (17%), Montrose 5.89 (17%). The market's averages: 1.66, 3.70 and 4.05. The widest gap is on the draw: the market is shorter (3.70) than our 5.72 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 1.36 (73%), under 2.5 3.75 (27%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.53, under 2.5 2.45. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 1.52 (66%), no 2.94 (34%). The market's averages: yes 1.53, no 2.27. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In East Kilbride's own 23 home matches read, one appeared in 19 (83%). In Montrose's own 23 away matches read, 11 (48%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 65% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/scottish-league-one/2026-10-17/east-kilbride-v-montrose/halftime/ Built 2026-10-16T06:05:21+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.