# Peterhead v Cove Rangers — the Match Wizard Scottish League One, game week 11 — Saturday, 17 October 2026, kick-off 15:00 UK time. > The wizard is price-blind: four steps on played-match facts alone, then your appraisal — and only then the market. Read it in order. Nothing here is a tip or a selection. Peterhead: 46 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season. Cove Rangers: 46 league matches in the bank, 10 from this season and the rest from last season. ## Step 1 of 4 — The table **Peterhead and Cove Rangers finished near neighbours last season -- 6th and 7th of 10 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Peterhead takes 1.13 points a game, Cove Rangers 1.13 -- nothing between them.** Step one is THE TABLE: rank against rank, and the blocks -- the table cut into a top, middle and bottom block, drawn from last season's final standings. The question is not just where each side stands but how it behaves against the company the other keeps: does it play to rank against the blocks above and below, or come apart? ### Peterhead -- at home - **Where it stands:** Stands 9th of 10 after 10 games, with 7 points. Last season it finished 6th of 10 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (4th to 7th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 10 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (4th to 7th). Against that block it has won 5, drew 2, lost 8 of 15 -- 17 points of 45. At home against them: won 3 of 6. Away against them: won 2 of 9. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 3, drew 2, lost 9 of 14 (0.79 a game); against the middle block won 5, drew 2, lost 8 of 15 (1.13 a game); against the bottom block won 6, drew 4, lost 4 of 14 (1.57 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 0, lost 3 of 3 (0.00 a game). ### Cove Rangers -- away - **Where it stands:** Stands 10th of 10 after 10 games, with 6 points. Last season it finished 7th of 10 in this division. - **Its block:** By last season's final table it sits in the middle block (4th to 7th). Blocks are drawn from last season because the current table is only 10 games old. - **Against today's opponent's block:** Today it faces a side from the middle block (4th to 7th). Against that block it has won 4, drew 5, lost 6 of 15 -- 17 points of 45. At home against them: won 3 of 8. Away against them: won 1 of 7. - **Across all the blocks:** Across the blocks, over the last two seasons: against the top block won 1, drew 4, lost 8 of 13 (0.54 a game); against the middle block won 4, drew 5, lost 6 of 15 (1.13 a game); against the bottom block won 6, drew 3, lost 6 of 15 (1.40 a game); against sides new to the division won 0, drew 1, lost 2 of 3 (0.33 a game). ## Step 2 of 4 — Home and away form **+0.39 points a game is the venue form gap, in Peterhead's favour: Peterhead takes 1.22 a game at home over the last two seasons, Cove Rangers 0.83 away.** Step two is HOME AND AWAY FORM -- the home side judged on its home record, the away side on its away record, because those are the records that will be on the pitch. The last five reach back into last season where this season is too young to answer, and say so. ### Peterhead -- at home - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season at home: won 1, drew 0, lost 4 of 5, scoring 3 and conceding 8. Last season at home: won 7, drew 4, lost 7 of 18, scoring 29 and conceding 29 -- 1.39 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: lost to Queen of the South 0-1 at home; lost to Hamilton Academical 1-2 away; lost to Airdrieonians 1-2 at home; lost to East Kilbride 1-3 away; lost to Montrose 0-3 at home. - **The dugout:** The banked record belongs to the club, not one man: 2 different managers took its 6 matches with one recorded (4, 2 apiece), most recently Ryan Strachan with 4. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ### Cove Rangers -- away - **Its record at the relevant venue:** This season away: won 0, drew 0, lost 5 of 5, scoring 4 and conceding 12. Last season away: won 5, drew 4, lost 9 of 18, scoring 24 and conceding 25 -- 1.06 points a game. - **Its last five league matches:** Newest first: drew with East Fife 1-1 at home; lost to Queen of the South 3-4 away; lost to Ross County 0-2 at home; lost to Montrose 1-2 away; drew with Alloa Athletic 1-1 at home. - **The dugout:** Every one of the 23 banked matches with a manager recorded was taken by Paul Hartley. Who picks the team today is not yet recorded this season, so a summer change of manager would not show in these figures. ## Step 3 of 4 — Goals, and when they come **Peterhead scores heaviest in the 46-60 spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Cove Rangers scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Cove Rangers's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Peterhead is softest.** Step three is GOALS, AND WHEN THEY COME. Not just how many each side scores and lets in, but the minute bands they come in, who lands the first blow, what each side does after falling behind, and who finds goals late. A side that concedes early and scores late reads very differently from one that does the opposite, at the same goal difference. Side by side: Peterhead scores most in the 46-60 band (12 of 55); Peterhead concedes most in the 76-90+ band (22 of 81); Cove Rangers scores most in the 76-90+ band (13 of 50); Cove Rangers concedes most in the 76-90+ band (15 of 57). Who lands the first blow and who lands the last is the question this step exists to ask. ### Peterhead -- at home - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.2 and concedes 1.8 a game over its last 46 league matches; at home, 1.4 for and 1.6 against over 23. - **When it scores:** Of 55 scored across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 8; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 7; 46-60: 12; 61-75: 6; 76-90+: 11. - **When it concedes:** Of 81 conceded across its own 46 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 11; 16-30: 11; 31-45+: 10; 46-60: 15; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 22. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 22 of 81 (27%). - **The first goal:** Scored first in 15 of its 46 read -- then won 10, drew 5, lost 0; conceded first in 31 -- pulled back 4 wins and 3 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 15 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 9 of its 46 read, winning 8 of them; trailed by two in 15, rescuing nothing; was ahead at some point without winning in 5. ### Cove Rangers -- away - **Goals a game:** Scores 1.1 and concedes 1.3 a game over its last 46 league matches; away, 1.2 for and 1.6 against over 23. - **When it scores:** Of 50 scored across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 7; 16-30: 5; 31-45+: 8; 46-60: 5; 61-75: 12; 76-90+: 13. Its heaviest scoring spell is after the 75th minute -- 13 of 50 (26%). (1 of its 46 matches lack usable goal times and are left out.) - **When it concedes:** Of 57 conceded across its own 45 matches with times recorded: 1-15: 12; 16-30: 8; 31-45+: 5; 46-60: 7; 61-75: 10; 76-90+: 15. Its heaviest conceding spell is after the 75th minute -- 15 of 57 (26%). (1 of its 46 matches lack usable goal times and are left out.) - **The first goal:** Scored first in 15 of its 45 read -- then won 11, drew 3, lost 1; conceded first in 25 -- pulled back 0 wins and 5 draws from them. Across every match where it trailed at some stage it recovered 11 points. - **Two-goal swings:** Led by two goals at some point in 7 of its 45 read, winning 7 of them; trailed by two in 12, rescuing 1 result; was ahead at some point without winning in 7. ## Step 4 of 4 — The bookies' favourite markets **Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 53% of their games, both teams scoring in 52%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 53%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** Step four is THE BOOKIES' FAVOURITE MARKETS -- over and under, both teams to score, and the two-goal lead that pays the 2UP offer out early -- read from what these two sides have actually produced, with the denominator on every figure. Still no price: these are the match's tendencies, not its odds. How the counting works, once for the whole step: every figure is counted over ONE side's own matches -- Peterhead's numbers over its games, Cove Rangers's over its own. The two clubs are never pooled into one denominator; where a single figure for this fixture is wanted, it is the AVERAGE of the two sides' rates, and says so. For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Peterhead's own 23 home matches read, one appeared in 12 (52%). In Cove Rangers's own 22 away matches read, 12 (55%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 53% of games. ### Peterhead -- at home - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 30 of its own 46 (65%); over 1.5 in 40 (87%); over 3.5 in 16 (35%). At home: over 2.5 in 14 of its 23 (61%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 29 of its own 46 (63%). At home: 14 of its 23 (61%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 4 of its own 46 (9%); failed to score in 13 (28%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Peterhead's own 46 matches read: Peterhead or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 24 (52%). Peterhead itself held the lead in 9, winning 8. In its home matches: one side or the other went two up in 12 of 23. ### Cove Rangers -- away - **Over and under:** Over 2.5 goals in 19 of its own 46 (41%); over 1.5 in 32 (70%); over 3.5 in 9 (20%). Away: over 2.5 in 12 of its 23 (52%). - **Both teams to score:** Both teams scored in 19 of its own 46 (41%). Away: 10 of its 23 (43%). - **Clean sheets and blanks:** Kept a clean sheet in 11 of its own 46 (24%); failed to score in 21 (46%). - **Two goals clear:** Counted over Cove Rangers's own 45 matches read: Cove Rangers or the side it was playing that day went two goals up in 19 (42%). Cove Rangers itself held the lead in 7, winning 7. In its away matches: one side or the other went two up in 12 of 22. ## Your appraisal — and now the market **Peterhead and Cove Rangers finished near neighbours last season -- 6th and 7th of 10 -- so rank alone splits nothing here. Against the block the other keeps: Peterhead takes 1.13 points a game, Cove Rangers 1.13 -- nothing between them. +0.39 points a game is the venue form gap, in Peterhead's favour: Peterhead takes 1.22 a game at home over the last two seasons, Cove Rangers 0.83 away. Peterhead scores heaviest in the 46-60 spell and concedes heaviest in 76-90+; Cove Rangers scores heaviest in 76-90+ and concedes heaviest in 76-90+. The shapes mesh: Cove Rangers's strongest scoring spell is exactly where Peterhead is softest. Averaging the two sides' own rates: over 2.5 goals in 53% of their games, both teams scoring in 52%, and a two-goal lead for one side or the other in 53%. On the record there is no strong lean either way on goals.** If the pattern holds -- and a pattern is a shape, not a promise: the first blow is even money on the record (15 of 46 and 15 of 45); a one-goal lead has not been safe in Cove Rangers's hands -- ahead without winning in 7 of 45; Cove Rangers finds its goals latest of all -- 13 of its 50 after the 75th, and Peterhead concedes most in that same spell; the last quarter-hour is where this fixture's money is likeliest to move. That read is built from the four steps, with no price in your ear -- the steps hold the evidence if you want the post-mortem. Now the market gets its say. Where it agrees with you it got there first; where it does not, your read and the crowd's disagree -- that is the conversation this tool exists to set up, and no measured edge backs either side of it. The tissue is a plain goals model: Peterhead 1.55 goals expected, Cove Rangers 1.53, from two seasons of scoring rates (23 home matches and 23 away in the bank), shrunk toward the division average. It is calibrated against nothing and claims no edge -- it exists to make your view concrete before the market speaks. - **Match result:** Our tissue: Peterhead 2.60 (39%), the draw 4.18 (24%), Cove Rangers 2.66 (38%). The market's averages: 2.30, 3.40 and 2.76. The widest gap is on the draw: the market is shorter (3.40) than our 4.18 -- it rates that outcome more than we do. - **Over or under 2.5 goals:** Our tissue: over 2.5 1.68 (60%), under 2.5 2.48 (40%). The market's averages: over 2.5 1.67, under 2.5 2.03. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **Both teams to score:** Our tissue: yes 1.62 (62%), no 2.62 (38%). The market's averages: yes 1.55, no 2.23. Close to our view -- no argument either way. - **The 2UP fact:** For the 2UP offer the fact that matters is a two-goal lead for one team or the other at ANY point, not the final margin. In Peterhead's own 23 home matches read, one appeared in 12 (52%). In Cove Rangers's own 22 away matches read, 12 (55%). Averaging the two sides' rates -- never pooling their matches -- that is 53% of games. No tissue is offered for this -- the played-match rates above are the honest read. The market figures are the AVERAGE pre-match odds our feed records across books, not a best price -- a shaded average, so small gaps mean nothing. ## Half-time The HTML page reads the second half from any half-time score you give it: /football/wizard/scottish-league-one/2026-10-17/peterhead-v-cove-rangers/halftime/ Built 2026-10-16T02:23:03+00:00 from matches completed before kick-off.